tern Profile picture
Mar 19 56 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Ten things they'll be telling us about meningitis before the end of the week:
1
It's mild
2
Kids can't get it.
3
Kids can get it, but they can't be harmed by it
4
Kids can get it, and they can be harmed by it, but they can't die from it.
5
Kids can die from it, but it's a peaceful merciful death.
6
It's not real.
7
It’s rare.
8
It’s always been this rare.
9
Cases are rising, but that’s just better testing.
10
It only affects people with underlying conditions.
11
Everyone has underlying conditions.
12
Cases are rising, but that’s just better testing.
13
Deaths are rising, but that’s just better reporting.
14
It only affects people who were already going to die.
15
It’s just a bad flu.
16
Most people don't die.
17
It’s just a bad cold.
18
It’s just anxiety.
19
It’s just social media hype.
20
It’s only happening in one area.
21
The area is a very big area with 30 million people living in it.
22
It’s only happening in one age group
23
The age group is 0-105.
24
It’s only happening to the unvaccinated.
25
It’s only happening to the vaccinated.
26
It’s airborne panic.
27
It’s not spreading.
28
It’s spreading but slowly.
29
It's stopped spreading because it's now everywhere.
30
Hospitals are coping.
31
Hospitals are stretched but resilient.
32
Hospitals are overwhelmed but that’s winter pressure.
33
Experts are monitoring the situation.
34
Experts are surprised by the situation.
35
Experts say there was no way to predict the situation.
36
Now is not the time to assign blame.
37
Now is the time to move on.
38
Numbers are going up, but from a very low base.
39
We must not cause unnecessary alarm.
40
The data is provisional.
41
The data is complex.
42
We've changed the way we collect data so it's no longer comparable.
43
Year-on-year comparisons are misleading.
44
International comparisons are misleading.
45
Historical comparisons are misleading.
46
Modelling is unreliable.
47
Anecdotes are unreliable.
48
The situation is dynamic.
49
Guidance remains unchanged.
50
Guidance has been updated.
51
Guidance was always clear.
52
Lessons will be learned.
53
This is the new normal.
54
Closing schools would cause more harm.
55
It has to be individual responsibility.

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More from @1goodtern

Mar 19
I'm sitting at my computer with 46 tabs open with media stories about the meningitis outbreak from the last 3 days.

Following mainstream coverage, govt statements and UKHSA briefings on the meningitis outbreak has been surprisingly tiring.

Here are a few of the inconsistencies:
"Outbreak has been contained." Then within 16 hours: "It is too soon to say the outbreak is contained."
UKHSA said this looked like a "single event cluster" linked to a nightclub. Then they started saying there was likely "ongoing spread" in university halls. A contained exposure event and active transmission through accommodation networks are not the same thing, Susan.
Read 21 tweets
Mar 13
All day I've been whacking my head against this vital tweet and the press release attached to it.

It's probably one of the most important things I've read about the early progression of the pandemic, but it's very hard to express concisely the huge scandal they've exposed here.
The central difficulty with getting your head round it is that there are *two* scandals detailed here:

👉The first is that key advice by experts was ignored in 2020.

👉The second is that a huge amount of money seems to have been spent covering that up.
So you need to think about the first scandal first, before being able to fully appreciate the second one.
Read 22 tweets
Mar 8
Them: But if Covid infections lower your lymphocytes wouldn't more people be dying from infections??

Me: Yes, that's right, that's exactly what's happening. 👇 Image
Also them: But those people are probably just weak and old. Surely we'd also see some kind of increase in sickness among healthy young people, specifically from infections?

Me: Yes, that too 👇 Image
Them: But those are just young doctors, we know they keep threatening to go on strike and they're probably foreign and we don't like them or care about them.

Me: What about young civil servants? 👇 Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 6
Why don't people grasp how serious this is?

Across an entire population, losing more than three years of your healthy life expectancy...

That is just staggering.

Especially because of this:
The big problem is that it *isn't even distributed evenly*.
I mean you might think that losing 3.3 years is bad.

But actually, that's 3.3 years spread across all the people.
Read 27 tweets
Mar 3
This one should be labelled 'Public Health Failure'.
Yep, I've taken funerals for two of these. Image
COVID IS A VASCULAR DISEASE. Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 3
What are people dying from?
How do those causes of death change from year to year?
We have a big database here in England that helps catalogue causes of death. The most recent version is for the year 2024.
This dataset contains official ONS annual mortality data for England, based on registered death certificates and coded using 'ICD-10' codes.
Read 90 tweets

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