Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia faces increasing difficulties in its war in Ukraine, comments a Russian warblogger, including a build-up of Ukrainian offensive capabilities, a military system that weeds out "energetic, proactive people", and the likely loss of Trump's assistance after the midterms. ⬇️

2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' writes that a new sense of realism is setting in among the 'turbo-patriots' who promote the Russian government's talking points on TV:

"Our TV show 'stars' are accustomed to convincing viewers that the enemy in Ukraine is almost defeated."

3/ "But by the beginning of the fifth year of the Special Military Operation, such enthusiastic utterances as "We'll just raise an eyebrow!" or "We'll crush you in three days" are no longer heard on the idiot box. The talkers haven't dried up, but they've reformed themselves.

4/ "And what about the front lines? It's a different kind of frontline life.

The enemy is amassing strike forces for an offensive in the spring-summer period of 2026.

Two possible scenarios are possible in the Ukrainian theatre of operations.

5/ "Judging by how the enemy is actively trying to dislodge our air defence forces in Crimea, I wouldn't rule out an attempt at an airborne operation in the Crimean direction. Plus, they're consolidating their airborne component.

6/ "Incidentally, the enemy is using paratroopers in particular in the Sumy direction. It's worth remembering that the buildup of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' airborne assault group is primarily taking place in the Sumy region.

7/ "But with Ukraine's logistics developing (!) (and this is in the fifth year of the war!), they have the ability to transfer a large group of forces and assets from one end of the country to the other within a week.

8/ "It appears that the current year will be rich in military surprises.

Oddly enough, the Ukrainian war is currently becoming even more dependent on the outcome of the US Congressional elections.

9/ "Trump, willy-nilly, has become the chief facilitator of the negotiation process from afar, even though we clearly did not grant him such authority.

But Trump is increasingly forced to switch from foreign policy to domestic affairs.

10/ "Moreover, he has a growing pile of problems in the Iranian direction. He is clearly preparing an amphibious operation on the Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, and he will clearly have plenty to occupy himself during the election period.

11/ "He is already being asked questions about Iran. The main one is: "Why do we need all this?"

Unfortunately, we have no visible 'aces up our sleeve' that could thwart the enemy's potential plans.

12/ "For example, last spring-summer of 2025, we won the "Small Sky" [lower altitudes] from them by increasing our [drone] activity. Now we've lost it again. But this is a normal, routine military process of clashing technologies and tactics.

13/ "The issue is different: it's abnormal to not change approaches to military development in the fifth (!) year of war.

14/ "Yet, in a number of areas of the military defense system (not only physical but also sectoral), approaches remain unchanged, which leads to the logical result—the situation is deteriorating.

15/ "Unfortunately, it's a fact: stagnation in military thought leads to degradation. Hence, impasse and crisis.

16/ "Unfortunately, the established system automatically weeds out energetic, proactive people in the security forces who are capable of introducing changes and revitalizing the process. Such people become dangerous and undesirable.

17/ "The problem is systemic, multi-level, and when it is not resolved immediately, negativity accumulates towards the decision-makers.

18/ "The enemy's problems directly at the front line are largely the same [as before]—only tactical successes are possible due to a drastic shortage of personnel.

19/ "However, there are also differences, such as better communications and a different quality of armoured vehicles, which makes the approach to combat operations more systematic." /end

Source:
t.me/voenkorKotenok…