The new world war has already started. Ukraine and Iran are not two separate conflicts — they are Act One of the same war.
The war in Ukraine involves Russian soldiers, Chinese circuits, Iranian drones, and mercenaries from North Korea, writes Will Lloyd in New Statesman. 1/
Lloyd met author Oleksandr Mykhed in Kyiv. Mykhed wrote The Language of War — a landmark of conflict literature written from the perspective of a soldier defending his homeland. 2/
When Lloyd asked about peace, Mykhed hated the question. “People think this is the third act. You should think of this as the first act.” 3/
Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. Population before 2022: 45,000. Now: 27,000 — including 2,000 children. Russians destroyed 80% of buildings. 447 bodies found in a mass grave on the outskirts. 4/
Deputy mayor Volodymyr Matsokin: “There are not enough fingers on my hands to count the people who were tortured or killed.” 5/
Streets across Kharkiv Oblast strung with anti-drone nets made from European fishing nets.
The nets catch crows, which freeze and hang above the roads. Schools operate underground. The elderly freeze in their apartments. 6/
The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade — 40,000 soldiers — tests remote-controlled ground vehicles in -21C forests near the front.
They evacuate casualties, deliver supplies, fire 12.7mm machine guns. No doctrine exists. They are writing it themselves. 7/
Zelenskyy: “Drone production and Ukraine’s expertise is today’s Ukrainian oil.”
Ukraine produces 3 million drones annually — heading toward 7 million in 2026. 8/
A museum director in Izyum showed Lloyd Russian leftovers: a Shahed-136 wing, cluster munitions,
Soviet-era rations, ammunition boxes with Mandarin labels, a wooden crutch from Tolstoy’s time. 9/
The Iranian Shaheds that hit Ukraine for four years now rain down across the Gulf. Same Chinese circuits. Same drones.
Mykhed’s question to Europe: “Are you ready to be in the first act?” 10X
Bill Browder: Putin is definitely licking his lips, feeling like a real gift has come out of left field. The extra money he'll be getting will be about $10B.
That goes to pay for soldiers, ammunition, and whatever else he needs to carry on his war in Ukraine. 1/
Browder: At the same time the Ukrainians have gained territory because they've gotten so good with drone warfare.
Putin's not getting any more territory, he's hiding in a bunker.
It's not all one-sided, it's a complicated story where he's winning some, he's losing some. 2/
Browder: We can't be in a situation where a country [Hungary] with one or two percent of the population of Europe threatens the stability and safety of the entire Europe. Ukraine will get the money, but it will force Europe to restructure how big decisions like this get made. 3X
CIA Director Ratcliffe: “I don’t take Vladimir Putin at his word.”
Ratcliffe confirmed Iran is seeking intelligence from Russia and China to target US forces. Moscow may be providing data like satellite imagery, NYPost. 1/
Ratcliffe: “The Iranians are requesting intelligence assistance from Russia, from China, and from other adversaries of the US.”
Details on whether support is being provided were kept classified. 2/
Russia may be supplying targeting data, including satellite imagery and intelligence on US assets in the Middle East, to support Iranian operations. Moscow denies the claims. 3/
Keane: European weakness comes from decades of cutting defense spending to pay for domestic programs.
Russia saw those vulnerabilities and invaded Ukraine, while the US now needs allied support for operations — and expects Europe to step forward after initial hesitation. 1/
Keane: The US objective is to strip Iran of both defensive and offensive weapons, including its nuclear capability.
Progress has been systematic and accurate, with 5,000-pound bombs now used to hit deeply buried missile storage sites that cannot be destroyed from the surface. 2/
Keane: Israeli operations are targeting the organizations that sustain the regime, including militias and command structures
Leadership is being systematically removed, cracks are appearing and the goal is to set conditions for regime collapse by breaking the chain of control 3X
Kellogg: The Strait of Hormuz is passable now — we just need the courage to do it.
They are softening targets by taking out shore-to-ship missiles and batteries. If you take Kharg Island and secure the strait, you’re in great shape and can move ships through. 1/
Kellogg: The strait is about 25 miles wide, but shipping lanes are only two miles each way.
You clear mines and missile threats — Iran’s systems come largely from Russia and China — and run escorted ships through to reopen the route. 2/
Kellogg: War is a two-way street — you’re going to get hit.
The first runs will face drones or missiles, like the “Thunder runs” into Baghdad. You push through expecting fire — you just have to kill them all, and sooner or later they’re going to break. 3X
Bolton on NATO support in the Iran war: If you want a coalition to help you in a war, you form it before the war starts.
Trump made no effort to build a coalition with NATO allies, and European leaders are tired of being criticized by him after repeated attacks on the alliance1/
Bolton: European leaders saying Iran is not our war is a very dangerous way to put it.
It invites Trump to respond in the same way and say Ukraine is not our war, while the campaign targets the instruments of Iranian power as the regime loses leaders and begins to fracture. 2/
Q: Was Trump unaware Iran could strike neighbors or close Strait of Hormuz?
Bolton: I know for fact he was aware of those potentials, I raised regime change several times.
Each time there was a list of consequences, including closing the strait and attacks on Gulf oil sites. 3X