๐ฉ๐๐: ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ข๐๐ก๐ง๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก.
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why.
His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐น๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ผ-๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris โ these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachรฉs, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war โ they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
๐๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera โ the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel โ is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ณ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ธ๐ช๐ฏ.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming โ Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through โ and he believes he will โ the regime falls. Not in years. ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ป.
๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ, ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐. ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ.
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why.
His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐น๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ผ-๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris โ these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachรฉs, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war โ they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
๐๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera โ the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel โ is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ณ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ธ๐ช๐ฏ.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming โ Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through โ and he believes he will โ the regime falls. Not in years. ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ป.
๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ, ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐. ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ.
โข โข โข
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