Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 21 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Nothing says hyperinflation like a ten million currency unit banknote.

The US and Western nations need to be three weeks into planning for relief and stability operations to prevent mass starvation in Iran after the Mullah Regime goes down.

After the Mullah's🧵
1/
The horrid impending humanitarian disaster reality for Iran is the current regime is a dead man walking because of hyperinflation.

Iran lacks the administrative ability to replace the current hyperinflated currency in the traditional manner...

2/
...of a three day closing of the banks and handing out new note for old.

In addition, the close down of the internet for security reasons combined with the striking of Iranian bank data centers means there are no operable credit or debit cards.

3/
This means cash is king...but no one in the bottom 2/5th of the Iranian population has enough of the hyper-inflated Rial currency to buy enough food to replace any reserves they had at the start of the current war.

4/
Since January 2026 Mullah Regime security forces have only allowed people to be free to move in shifts to buy food.

After three weeks of war, the economic bottom 2/5ths of the Iranian people don't have any food reserves left and are scrambling to get enough food of any sort.
5/
Few 1st worlders in the USA, Europe or East Asia understand what just in time inventory practices mean for food security in the event of the internet going down.

There is no slack.
There is no redundancy.
There is "no inventory in back of the store."

6/
All that is in the back of the supermarket food store is a set of loading docks and enough room to process the inventory unloaded from semi-tractor trailer rigs at the loading docks.

There are few wholesale facilities with food inventory of any sorts.

7/
Most food inventory is in containers or trailers in transit at any given time.

Iran isn't as far down the just-in-time inventory model as the 1st world...but they are far enough down it that retail levels across Iran are significantly drained.

8/
There has to be very little food at local Iranian retail outlets now.

Simply because of the lack of internet communications telling wholesale levels of food inventory to push forward food to retail outlets.

9/
BLUF:

If you though Iranian hyperinflation was bad before. It is getting far worse now for the poorest 40% of Iranians.

This points up the need for the US-Israeli air forces to fastly increase the pace of engagement of Regime Security Forces.

10/
The longer it takes for the Regime Security Forces to be destroyed to a level that a January 2026 uprising can succeed.

The bigger the humanitarian disaster Iran is going to suffer from mass starvation for food supply chain collapse.

11/11
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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 17
The US-Israeli air campaign against Iran is following Warden's "Five Rings" system strategy.

Mullahs & IRGC leaders are inthe dead center of the 5-rings.

The Basij are usually considered "fielded forces" by analysts who don't understand the role of Regime Security Forces in a totalitarian regime.

1/Image
Regime Security Forces live in the "System Essentials" ring of a totalitarian government as they control the communications and information in a totalitarian society as a part of their anti-coup mission.

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The fact that any major leadership[ meeting of the IRGC or Basij is catching several smart bombs addresses both of the "inner rings."

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 17
People really don't understand how shutting down the internet has flatlined the Iranian economy.

There are no credit card transactions
No electronic bank transfers
No ATM transactions

1/
All the usual electronic traffic between residential & supermarket banks branches to main branches has to be done by paper, if it is done at all.

You cannot do "Just-in-time" inventory management without the internet.

2/ Image
The Mullah shutdown of the internet as a security measure means the "Velocity of Money" in the Iranian economy has tubed.

This will bring on more of the economic hyper-inflation-food insecurity issues in Iran that set off the Jan 2026 insurrection.

"Dead Regime Walking."
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 15
If Israeli Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are killing Shaheed-136 launch crews.

They are not killing Basij regime security force checkpoints.

The US-Israeli air forces will need to inflict at _least_ 200K casualties to Iranian regime security forces...
1/3
...for a successful civilian insurrection to have a good chance of success.

Even if there are ~200 checkpoint drone strikes per day inflicting 5 casualties each. That is only 1,000 a day, AKA 200 days.

2/3 Image
BLUF:

US-Israeli airpower has to increase the Regime Security Force casualty rates to ~6,700 a day to end the air campaign in another 30 days.

B-52 & B-1's playing 'loitering bomb trucks' can do that, with less restrictive rules of engagement resulting in collateral damage
3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
What jumps put for me looking at this report of the Mullah's decamping to Mashad is the US-Israeli intelligence had to know as soon as it started.

I believe that the steaming of the USS Ford through the Suez Canal happened because of this.

Collapse 🧵
1/
If the Mullah's command was moving.

Their ability to command drone and missile strikes on the USS Ford would be minimal, if only to avoid US-Israeli radio-direction finding.

Mashad is also very convenient place to run away from Iran if the government falls everywhere else.
2/ Image
The Mullah's are so afraid of getting the "Maduro Treatment" by US Special Forces in Mashad that they have blocked the local airport runways with cars

3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 9
The problem with this thought is the Iranian drones being fired now are the uber sophisticated Russian-guilt Geran using radio mesh and cell phone sim card link video-navigation.

1/3
They are flying lower and more sophisticated trajectories taking advantage of radar shadows from oil infrastructure in the Gulf to prevent the generation of good intercept tracks.

Gun armed ships and attack helicopters low amongst oil rigs are the best play here.

2/3
It is only a matter of time until Geran/Shaheed FPV motherships are being fired by the IRGC at Gulf Oil infrastructure using Gulf Cell phone networks as video data links.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
This is a point I have been pounding upon since 2023.

The "Big/Expensive/Few Mafia" in the US Flag ranks and Western Defense Contractors have denied this harsh reality for reasons Upton Sinclair has expounded upon.
1/
Both I and @johnkonrad were mocked for pointing out how deadly drones were for being disintermediated from existing military platforms for ubiquitous commercial transportation infrastructure like cargo containers.
2/ Image
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The Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb showed who were prophets and who were the complete and utter fools.

BLUF:

The Big/Expensive/Few, love the F-35, fanboy community got to eat 💩

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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