Theti Mapping Profile picture
Mar 22 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
👇Many people are wondering how Iran continues to fire a steady amount of ballistic missiles both at Israel and the GCC on a daily basis, even managing to increase the rate of fire recently. I've mapped out the most popular Iranian missile bases used for such launches.

- Green icon = most frequently used launch sites
- Yellow = intermittent launches, a few recorded incidents over the past 1-2 weeks
- Red = launches on rare occasions

This map shows how the center of gravity for Iranian launches on Israel quickly shifted away from major silos the western part of the country (Tabriz, Urmia, Kermanshah & Dezful) towards the center. The most frequent launches come from the Koohestan (Yazd) missile base, located at least 1730km away from Israel.

Yesterday the US dropped bunker busters on this facility, targeting above-ground structures and tunnel entrances. Over the coming days we'll see whether this actually has an effect on the launches. Other popular firing posts towards Israel include Shiraz, Isfahan, and Tehran.

There are at least 3 separate launching points near each of those cities. I would wager the number in the Tehran metro area is even larger, and I have some theories as to where additional BMs are stored, but I can't verify it with satellite imagery.

In all likelihood I've missed a handful of bases, but at least I compiled all the publicly known ones (30 that are at least somewhat active as of the past fortnight). The blue lines represent potential trajectories from the most popular launch spots.

It can be seen that there a few bases located at exceptionally long ranges, such as Shahmirzad & Shahrud. The damage to these sites is insignificant, and their importance will increase when Iran decides to preserve its remaining stockpiles and TELs in the central part of the country.

There are even rare instances where a single launch comes out of the western missile bases. This is possible if most of the preparation is done underground and the TEL shoots and scoots, returning to hardened tunnels covered by dozens or even 100+ meters of granite. But such a manuever is risky due to strong Israeli recon UAV presence in western Iran and frequent aircraft sorties along the Iraq border.

So far Israel's been more effective in suppressing missile fire from western Iran than CENTCOM has been along the southern coast. Even bases that are basically tangent to the Persian Gulf remain relatively active.

Over the past 3 days the US has tried to remedy this by focus much of their firepower on underground weapons depots at tactical airbases, anti-ship missile storage, and ballistic missile sites. Most notably, there were heavy strikes on the Borazjan missile base in Bushehr Province.Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Theti Mapping

Theti Mapping Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ThetiMapping

Mar 19
Lebanon Update: Notable changes across most axes over the past few days have now been confirmed

> 810th Mountain Brigade occupied sections of the Daf esh-Sheikh mountain peak on the Lebanese side of the border. From there they advanced towards the eastern outskirts of Chebaa and started demolishing chalets.

> The Lebanese Army advanced from its border positions around en-Nouqar (south of Chebaa). They regrouped around the town's entrance, the local pharmacy, and the municipal building.

> IDF continues pushing deeper into al-Khiam through the eastern part of the town and local roads on the far-eastern perimeter. The IDF is pushing into Khiam's northernmost neighborhood, Jlahiye, in an effort to sever the connection between the Radwan cells serving as a vanguard force and Ebel el-Saqi on the rear.

> An IDF compilation of air/drone strikes proved that the 869th Field Intelligence Battalion is involved in surveying Khiam. The 869th Battalion is subordinate to the 91st Territorial Division. This indicates that the 91st Division is still involved in some operations in Khiam, while the headquarters and most of the manpower has been moved to the Bint Jbeil region.

> The same IDF footage geolocated by @Me1Ray shows a tank firing at a Hezbollah cell hiding in a house in center of al-Khiam. This portion of the town very dense and contains winding alleyways and highly-elevated ATGM positions.

> Given the use of tanks it's possible elements of the 7th Armored Brigade of the 36th Division are involved in the advance. The only other option is that the 401st Armored Brigade of the 162nd Division is split between al-Khiam and Ayta ash-Shab.

> Hezbollah also acknowledges the Israeli presence in al-Khiam. They claim to have repelled an Israeli advance past the detention center.Image
Image
Image
> 36th Armored Brigade is clearing southern Kfar Kela. The advances originate from staging points in Metula and Odaisseh. There's still a small pocket of Hezbollah resistance in the far western part of the town, in the Qaitoule neighborhood.

> Forward Radwan cells are dragging out the fighting there in order to deny the IDF unabated access to Al-Awaida Hill, which would connect Taybeh to Kfar Kela. It would also open the gateways to the southern bank of the Litani River.

> IDF has taken over the majority of Taybeh via local routes originating from Odaisseh. IDF took over the Jabal Amel Project in southern Taybeh, and from there they're pushing the Al-Rihani area and the town's western outskirts. The town center is contested. Hezbollah claims they targeted Israeli forces in Taybeh 4 times today.Image
Image
> IDF pushed deeper into the Jdeideh neighborhood in northern Meiss al-Jabal. They advanced along the Marjayoon-Bint Jbeil road & the Krum Almurah park. The current focus is on infiltrating or squeezing Hezbollah out of the dense town center. There was also a minor incursion toward Blida's outskirts from the Yiftach post to the east.

> No new IDF progress past the Al-Khanouq neighborhood in southern Aitaroun. The 91st Division has advance from the hills to the east into Maroun el-Ras itself.

> The cutoff point between Maroun el-Ras and Hay el-Maslakh is rather arbitrary, but it seems like the IDF's operational objective is to advance along the slight less dense southeastern outskirts of Bint Jbeil so they can launch a two-pronged attack on the stronghold from both Maroun el-Ras and Aitaroun.

> Israeli armored vehicles crossed the Lebanese border around Ein el-Khirba and advanced from south to north along Yaroun's main road, bypassing most of the houses located east of the road.Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
Really important thread🧵👇
Israel appears to be setting conditions for a revolt in Tehran. UAVs have struck targets since day one, but tonight they reached a new zenith. There is a particular emphasis on monitoring and striking checkpoints set up in Tehran, Karaj, and Varamin.
The roadblocks, checkpoints, and newly formed military deployment points were set up by the following Iranian security organs:
- Basij
1. Imam Ali Battalions (meant to counter street protests)
2. University Basij Cadets
- FARAJA
1. Iranian Prevention Police
2. Iranian Public Security Police
3. Iranian Police Special Units
4. Greater Tehran Police Command
5. Traffic Police
IRGC
1. IRGC Intelligence Organization
2. IRGC Ground Forces
Image
(Credit to @INTELonIRAN for compiling these images)

These security forces set up checkpoints along highways and neighborhood entrances. FARAJA, IRGC, and Basij deployed technical vehicles mounted with machine guns at key sites in the city center. Hermes-450/900 & Herons tracked these movements and targeted at least dozens of security posts.

The number cited by Fars News during the evening was 29, and it certainly increased since then. Fars also reported that these drone strikes killed at least 10 IRGC/Basij personnel. Again, Israel likely used Herons and Hermes to launch precision-guided attacks. Harop loitering UAVs are another option.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
Hezbollah's large-scale rocket salvo on Northern Israel pushed a strategic crossroads to the forefront. Short thread on Hezbollah's capabilities and Israel's changing security conception. 🧵👇 Image
Hezbollah still possesses over 23,000 missiles/rockets/mortars of all kinds. Many thousands can reach Israeli towns along the border with Lebanon, and several thousand can penetrate all the way to the Lower Galilee and Haifa. And that's keeping in mind the fact that most Hezbollah rocket launches are now occuring north of the Litani River, largely east and south of Nabatieh.
The fact they were even able to launch 100 rockets is a failure on Israel's part, as their goal is to preemptively suppress the launchers before that's possible. Of course keep in mind that 80% of Israel's intelligence and air force wherewithal is concentrated on Iran. This also means Israeli infantry lacks the same degree of close air support that it enjoyed during the 2024 invasion.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 4
Summary of day one of Israel's invasion of Lebanon🧵

Israeli operations are still nascent, with the focus being on slow, methodical advances along similar routes as the 2024 invasion. There is a focus on flanking border towns by assuming positions on nearby dominant heights. Image
The most eventful section of the border is the east. At 2:45pm Hezbollah claimed they scored a direct hit on a Merkava tank in the Al-Samakah position, located on the hills east of Kfar Chouba. This Israeli attack vector is favorable as they're occupying positions 1400m above sea level while the village itself is at 1150m.

The largest attacks occured south of al-Khiam. Israeli forces occupied the salient between Metula and Ghajar that was essentially unpopulated. Israeli tanks and armored vehicles are advancing south of al-Khiam along the Hamametz Ridge (600m). Heavy tank and artillery fire was recorded in al-Khiam throughout the night of March 2nd.

Israel is trying to drive a wedge between the al-Khiam and Kfar Kela garrisons by advancing along the vertical portion of the Marjayoun-Bint Jbeil road. Hezbollah shelled Israeli gathering points in the Galilee Panhandle such as Kfar Yuval and Metula (where they claimed they direct hit a Merkava tank).

Israeli tanks advanced along the Tel Nahas height (600m) in order to flank Kfar Kela from the north. At 3pm Hezbollah claims they directly hit a Merkava tank on this hill. At 3:30 apparently two additional tanks were sent to assist in evacuating the first tank that was hit. Hezbollah claims they targeted these tanks with ATGMs, foricng them to withdraw under the cover of smoke.Image
An Israeli Merkava tank and Namer APC were geolocated in the southern outskirts of Aadaysit Marjaayoun, confirming reports that Israeli forces occupied heights south of the village (800).

There's also a minor Israeli presence along the ridge between Margaliot and Houla, but this area was already occupied before today's advances.
x.com/fdov21/status/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
Starting a new Iran war thread as the last one is cluttered. Footage is trickling in from US/Israeli attacks on western Iran, including significant explosions at the Zanjan ballistic missile storage and launch base. This site suffered moderate damage during the last war.
At least 12 simultaneous ballistic missile launches from Iran, the largest single wave I've seen all day.
An Iranian Shahed-131/136 hit a building in Manama, Bahrain
Read 15 tweets
Feb 28
Starting a thread of footage of the strikes on Iran, all of this is from Tehran at the moment.


"Regime targets" were struck near the Milad Tower. Nitzan Shapira of N12 says this is a joint attack with the US. A number assassinations were reported in the center of Tehran. Image


A second wave of strikes has started following the first wave that hit central Tehran. Now western Tehran is being hit.
Read 23 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(