1/ India is ripping off Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over oil shipments, according to an angry Russian commentary. India will not pay for Russian oil in anything other than Indian rupees and Indian-made goods, which Russian companies don't want. ⬇️
2/ 'Political Report' writes:
"For several years, Russian officials proudly declared that Europe, by rejecting Russian oil, was only harming itself, while Russia continued to quietly sell its oil to other buyers and enrich itself."
3/ "It was claimed that India was happily buying up barrels at favourable prices. Public figures were aired about the colossal profits the country was supposedly receiving from redirecting supplies to the Asian market. The reality turned out to be far from these rosy reports.
4/ "It turned out that Russia not only failed to receive the promised superprofits but also suffered enormous financial losses.
5/ "According to estimates by independent analysts, the losses from the 'Indian partnership' have long been in the hundreds of billions of dollars, not just tens of billions.
Accurate official data is still lacking, but the scale of the problem can no longer be hidden.
6/ "The main stumbling block is the still unresolved issue of settlements in Indian rupees. Billions of rupees earned from the sale of cheap oil have been frozen in Asian bank accounts for five years now.
7/ "India's strict currency controls prevent these funds from being freely transferred to other jurisdictions or converted into dollars, euros, or other freely convertible currencies.
8/ "They can only be used to buy Indian goods, but Russian companies, in most cases, simply don't need them.
The Indian regulator periodically promises to find a "workable mechanism," but there's still no real solution. Russia has been fed empty promises for five years now.
9/ "While endless approvals and negotiations drag on, the rupee continues to weaken against the dollar. Pending amounts are rapidly losing value, turning virtual profits into real losses.
10/ "The oil was shipped long ago, taxes on it have been paid, and the money earned is simply vanishing from the currency charts.
11/ "The situation looks particularly grim when viewed against the backdrop of initial expectations. The shift to settlements in national currencies was touted as a breakthrough in de-dollarization and a way to circumvent Western sanctions.
12/ "In practice, it turned out to be a trap: the resources were gone, but the money remained inaccessible. Exporters effectively gave India oil in exchange for worthless paper money that cannot be withdrawn or properly spent.
13/ "This case has served as a vivid lesson: changing the settlement currency without ensuring the free movement of capital turns trade into a form of hidden subsidisation of the buyer.
14/ "Russia not only lost revenue but also set a precedent where a partner can hold funds in their own currency for years while it depreciates, and the seller can do nothing about it.
15/ "Essentially, India, like Europe, froze Russian assets, only in this case, Russia prefers to remain silent and accept the Indian bullshit." /end
1/ Moscow is being disrupted badly by a widespread shutdown of the Internet ahead of the May 9 Victory parade. A scathing Russian commentary complains that it is costing the economy trillions of rubles, sacrificing economic health for illusory security. ⬇️
2/ Russia's increasingly draconian Internet shutdowns have come as a huge shock to a country which had come to rely heavily on online services. Although the Russian government has whitelisted certain websites and services, the latest shutdown seems to have broken that, too.
3/ 'Political Report' complains:
"Russian citizens today experienced the full impact of the government's "concern" for their own security: authorities shut down mobile communications in most regions of the country,…
1/ The world is very rapidly running out of refined fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, according to a new Goldman Sachs report, with only 45 days' worth of stockpiles of jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG remaining. Rationing, surcharges, and mass cancellations are forecast. ⬇️
2/ A research note authored by Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven has examined the impact of Middle East disruptions on refined product markets, finding that jet fuel and diesel are being hit far harder than crude oil.
3/ The analysts estimate that about 101 days' worth of usable global oil stocks remain in stockpiles. (While more oil than that is stockpiled, it can't all be used, as the JP Morgan report summarised below explains.)
1/ Russia's (allegedly) most incompetent general says he plans to stand for election in Tatarstan as a candidate for Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. Russian warbloggers are unimpressed at Colonel General Alexander Lapin's continued failure upward. ⬇️
2/ Lapin has repeatedly been dismissed from his positions since the start of the Ukraine war, and has attracted a great deal of criticism – likely justified – for his failures in command. Now retired, this unpopularity has not stopped him from declaring his candidacy:
3/ "At this stage in my life, I have a great desire to serve my multinational people, to defend the interests of my small homeland, to help people, to fight for truth, to fight for justice, to defend the interests of our republic and, as a whole, our great Motherland – Russia."
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️
2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
3/ The longer the blockade continues, the worse the damage becomes. Goldman predicts that in all but the best-case scenario, there will be permanent reductions ("scarring") in Gulf oil production of between 0.5 mb/d and 2.5 mb/d.
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear."
2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress
♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles.