1/ India is ripping off Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over oil shipments, according to an angry Russian commentary. India will not pay for Russian oil in anything other than Indian rupees and Indian-made goods, which Russian companies don't want. ⬇️
2/ 'Political Report' writes:
"For several years, Russian officials proudly declared that Europe, by rejecting Russian oil, was only harming itself, while Russia continued to quietly sell its oil to other buyers and enrich itself."
3/ "It was claimed that India was happily buying up barrels at favourable prices. Public figures were aired about the colossal profits the country was supposedly receiving from redirecting supplies to the Asian market. The reality turned out to be far from these rosy reports.
4/ "It turned out that Russia not only failed to receive the promised superprofits but also suffered enormous financial losses.
5/ "According to estimates by independent analysts, the losses from the 'Indian partnership' have long been in the hundreds of billions of dollars, not just tens of billions.
Accurate official data is still lacking, but the scale of the problem can no longer be hidden.
6/ "The main stumbling block is the still unresolved issue of settlements in Indian rupees. Billions of rupees earned from the sale of cheap oil have been frozen in Asian bank accounts for five years now.
7/ "India's strict currency controls prevent these funds from being freely transferred to other jurisdictions or converted into dollars, euros, or other freely convertible currencies.
8/ "They can only be used to buy Indian goods, but Russian companies, in most cases, simply don't need them.
The Indian regulator periodically promises to find a "workable mechanism," but there's still no real solution. Russia has been fed empty promises for five years now.
9/ "While endless approvals and negotiations drag on, the rupee continues to weaken against the dollar. Pending amounts are rapidly losing value, turning virtual profits into real losses.
10/ "The oil was shipped long ago, taxes on it have been paid, and the money earned is simply vanishing from the currency charts.
11/ "The situation looks particularly grim when viewed against the backdrop of initial expectations. The shift to settlements in national currencies was touted as a breakthrough in de-dollarization and a way to circumvent Western sanctions.
12/ "In practice, it turned out to be a trap: the resources were gone, but the money remained inaccessible. Exporters effectively gave India oil in exchange for worthless paper money that cannot be withdrawn or properly spent.
13/ "This case has served as a vivid lesson: changing the settlement currency without ensuring the free movement of capital turns trade into a form of hidden subsidisation of the buyer.
14/ "Russia not only lost revenue but also set a precedent where a partner can hold funds in their own currency for years while it depreciates, and the seller can do nothing about it.
15/ "Essentially, India, like Europe, froze Russian assets, only in this case, Russia prefers to remain silent and accept the Indian bullshit." /end
1/ The Russian army has been taken over by an organised crime syndicate, says a Russian journalist. The mass recruitment of criminals now means that crimes and corruption of all sorts – murder, torture, extortion, prostitution, drug and alcohol smuggling – are now routine. ⬇️
2/ Sergey Komkov writes that organised crime has become "the most widespread social virus in the Special Military Operation zone, capable of burying virtually the entire combat capability of our Russian army."
3/ He says that an "Organised Thieves' Den", which he refers to with the acronym OVM, "has long been in full swing in many dugouts and personnel quarters of our armed forces in the SVO [Special Military Operation]."
1/ Ukraine is launching a new, agile system for rapid military deployment of new technology; Russia, not so much so. Pro-Kremlin warblogger Vladimir Romanov sarcastically highlights the differences between the Russian and Ukrainian systems. ⬇️
2/ Romanov notes how Ukraine is "systematically streamlining the path of technological developments to the front lines":
"The [Ukrainian] government, at the recommendation of the Ministry of Defence, is launching a new model for purchasing innovative weapons for the army."
3/ "The Ministry of Defence now has the authority to quickly procure innovative products through a simplified procedure, and combat units will test them and decide on their effectiveness.
Solutions proven in combat are eligible for inclusion in procurement requirements.
1/ Russia's Black Sea Fleet is trapped and largely neutralised, according to gloomy commentaries from Russian warbloggers. Ukraine's recent attack on its ships anchored at Novorossiysk show that its situation is a "catastrophic failure". ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian frigate at anchor at Novorossiysk on April 6th has been the subject of commentary from several Russian warbloggers, who have noted that the drones used were clearly under manual control for their terminal guidance. 'Rybar' writes:
3/ "An important point is that the Ukrainian side had objective control over the final stretch of the strike thanks to Starlink. This was most likely achieved by relaying a signal from another UAV, which was located outside the Krasnodar Krai territorial waters at the time...
1/ Russia's regional governments and state-owned institutions are planning to spend billions of rubles to circumvent the Internet restrictions imposed by Russia's federal government, a situation which Russian commentators have criticised as ridiculous and wasteful. ⬇️
2/ The SHOT Telegram channel reports that numerous Russian cities and regions are advertising contracts for the provision of VPN services. Thousands of similar tenders have also been posted by state institutions and state-owned companies, according to LIFE.
3/ The customers include "local ministries, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Health, investigative departments of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, city and district administrations, educational institutions, meteorological services,…
1/ Russia recently sent a 'shadow fleet' tanker through the English Channel, escorted by a Russian Navy warship. However, as the 'Fighterbomber' Telegram channel points out, this is more for performative than practical reasons. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber' writes (using 'Laos' as a synchedoche for Russia, a common-used tactic by warbloggers to avoid the wrath of the censors):
3/ "Sources within the Security Council suggest that virtually all of Laos's more or less serious warships, capable of carrying out combat missions in these oceans of ours, have long been assigned to escort tankers.
1/ Russian bloggers and commentators are continuing to reflect, often angrily, on the defeat yesterday of Hungary's Viktor Orbán. They blame the Hungarian people for being too ignorant, accuse their own elites of failing, and fear for Russia's future. ⬇️
2/ (See the linked thread below for earlier reactions)
3/ Many look ahead to the effect that the Hungarian election will have on Russia's international strategy. 'Political Report' predicts that Orbán's fall "deprives Russia of a crucial lever of influence within the EU."