1/ India is ripping off Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over oil shipments, according to an angry Russian commentary. India will not pay for Russian oil in anything other than Indian rupees and Indian-made goods, which Russian companies don't want. ⬇️
2/ 'Political Report' writes:
"For several years, Russian officials proudly declared that Europe, by rejecting Russian oil, was only harming itself, while Russia continued to quietly sell its oil to other buyers and enrich itself."
3/ "It was claimed that India was happily buying up barrels at favourable prices. Public figures were aired about the colossal profits the country was supposedly receiving from redirecting supplies to the Asian market. The reality turned out to be far from these rosy reports.
4/ "It turned out that Russia not only failed to receive the promised superprofits but also suffered enormous financial losses.
5/ "According to estimates by independent analysts, the losses from the 'Indian partnership' have long been in the hundreds of billions of dollars, not just tens of billions.
Accurate official data is still lacking, but the scale of the problem can no longer be hidden.
6/ "The main stumbling block is the still unresolved issue of settlements in Indian rupees. Billions of rupees earned from the sale of cheap oil have been frozen in Asian bank accounts for five years now.
7/ "India's strict currency controls prevent these funds from being freely transferred to other jurisdictions or converted into dollars, euros, or other freely convertible currencies.
8/ "They can only be used to buy Indian goods, but Russian companies, in most cases, simply don't need them.
The Indian regulator periodically promises to find a "workable mechanism," but there's still no real solution. Russia has been fed empty promises for five years now.
9/ "While endless approvals and negotiations drag on, the rupee continues to weaken against the dollar. Pending amounts are rapidly losing value, turning virtual profits into real losses.
10/ "The oil was shipped long ago, taxes on it have been paid, and the money earned is simply vanishing from the currency charts.
11/ "The situation looks particularly grim when viewed against the backdrop of initial expectations. The shift to settlements in national currencies was touted as a breakthrough in de-dollarization and a way to circumvent Western sanctions.
12/ "In practice, it turned out to be a trap: the resources were gone, but the money remained inaccessible. Exporters effectively gave India oil in exchange for worthless paper money that cannot be withdrawn or properly spent.
13/ "This case has served as a vivid lesson: changing the settlement currency without ensuring the free movement of capital turns trade into a form of hidden subsidisation of the buyer.
14/ "Russia not only lost revenue but also set a precedent where a partner can hold funds in their own currency for years while it depreciates, and the seller can do nothing about it.
15/ "Essentially, India, like Europe, froze Russian assets, only in this case, Russia prefers to remain silent and accept the Indian bullshit." /end
1/ Russia's Telegram ban and Internet blocks risk having a counter-productive effect similar to Prohibition in the US a century ago, warn Russian commentators – driving people to acts of civic resistance and pushing them into ideologically unsound spaces. ⬇️
2/ Sergey Kolyashnikov notes how the alcohol ban imposed on the US during Prohibition backfired by turning millions of people into lawbreakers and spurring the growth of the Italian mafia and others seeking to bypass the ban for profit. He sees a similar phenomenon now in Russia:
3/ "Consider the market potential for all sorts of blocking bypass tools. Especially since a significant portion of the audience was already using them to access YouTube and Instagram.
1/ Russian forces have suffered a major defeat near Lyman, with the loss of numerous men and armoured vehicles. The survivors complain that the Ukrainians "fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse" and accuse a Russian general of a reckless gamble. ⬇️
2/ A frontline soldier writing in the 'Management Speaks' Telegram channel gives a furious and graphic account of what happened, in a since-deleted post that also highlights the ongoing collapse in fundraising since Telegram was blocked for many Russians:
3/ "Brothers, no matter what kind of fuckery happens, I'm in it till the very end. I won't lie — they fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse, and I'm ashamed of this shit in front of the families of the guys, not in front of you.
1/ Has Donald Trump accidentally recreated, in an even more severe form, the energy crisis that doomed Jimmy Carter's presidency? A comparison with the 1979 oil crisis shows worrying parallels with the current situation. ⬇️
2/ In August 2023, former Fed chair Larry Summers (@LHSummers) noted this in the Washington Post: "It is sobering to recall that the shape of the past decade’s inflation curve almost perfectly shadows its path from 1966 to 1976 before it accelerated in the late 1970s."
3/ What caused that acceleration? The most immediate trigger was the Iranian Revolution in early 1979, which brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power. The turmoil caused by the revolution caused Iran's oil exports to drop from about 6 million barrels per day to only about 1.5 million.
1/ As the Russian government's strangulation of the Internet deepens, Russian businesses are waking up to the long-feared reality of the so-called 'Cheburnet' – a walled-off national intranet for only selected companies and services. Economic disaster is forecast. ⬇️
2/ 'Cheburnet' (a portmenteau of 'Internet' and the iconic Soviet/Russian children's character Cheburashka) is the standard, sardonic Russian term for the government's long-held ambition to create a North Korea-style 'sovereign Internet', walled off from the outside world.
3/ Unlike North Korea or China, which never had uncensored access to the global Internet and have built their online economies and infrastructure accordingly, Russia is suddenly being wrenched onto the path of a closed national intranet.
1/ Russian sources say that Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, under the command of Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, have made "significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology". Russian soldiers are facing "slaughter [like] cattle" as a result. ⬇️
2/ Andrey Medvedev writes:
"We've been reporting since the fall that the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian drone manufacturers have made significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology.
3/ "Footage of a single Russian soldier being killed by ten to twenty drones has, unfortunately, been appearing regularly on the Ukrainian segment of Telegram.
1/ Another Russian helicopter has been lost over Ukraine – the second in two days, after yesterday's shootdown of a Ka-52 by an FPV drone (seen here). The Russian warblogger 'Fighterbomber' is angry at the lack of EW protection on helicopters. ⬇️
It's clear that everyone is now preoccupied with urgently installing anti-FPV drone electronic warfare systems on attack helicopters."
3/ "Why attack helicopters, specifically? Because Mi-8 crews are already carrying homemade electronic warfare systems at their own risk, supported by sponsors, volunteers, or even purchased at their own expense.