This creative misreading of the Suez Crisis misses the point.
Trump’s Iran war is already the US’s Suez Moment — the inflection point where US strategic decline becomes painfully undeniable.
Britain, France and Israel lost Suez because they overestimated their own military and economic strength. Israel was acting as a revisionist and expansionist power, and tag-teamed with stronger Western allies to attempt to redraw Mideast borders in a supposedly “preventive” war against Nasser’s Egypt— in that case, the fear that Nasser would close the Suez Canal.
*The war itself* then provoked Nasser to close canal. 🤦🏼♀️
Sounds familiar, eh?
The author wrongly concludes, however, that Uk, France & Israel’s mistake was backing down, and hence, destroying their own credibility.
The ACTUAL mistake was starting the war to begin with.
Fighting for the sake of “preserving credibility” is like chasing losses at a casino.
Genuine credibility can’t be manufactured by fighting. It naturally flows from vital national interests. The U.S. doesn’t need to “prove” it will fight for its core interests, like defense of the homeland from attack. The credibility of retaliation to attack on the U.S. homeland is inherent.
(Kind of like how Iran’s threats to retaliate to US/Israel attacks on its territory were also inherently credible. Trump was foolish to discount them.)
Where U.S. leaders have screwed up too many times is in trying to manufacture false credibility when the issues at stake *don’t* threaten core U.S. interests — like regime change in Iran, ending Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, etc. and all the other demands Israel foisted on the US-Iran nuclear talks.
Everyone knows Iran cares a lot more about its own survival than the U.S. cares about Iran’s survival. The war is existential for Iran but NOT existential for the US. That means the balance of interests favors Iran, and always will, no matter what crazy hoops the U.S. jumps itself through, at great cost, to try and prove otherwise.
That’s how we ended up fighting 20 years in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. They outlasted us and everyone knew they eventually would.
Let’s hope Trump deescalates the conflict and avoids the credibility trap in Iran, which leads only to quagmire.
@defpriorities
wsj.com/opinion/americ…
Trump’s Iran war is already the US’s Suez Moment — the inflection point where US strategic decline becomes painfully undeniable.
Britain, France and Israel lost Suez because they overestimated their own military and economic strength. Israel was acting as a revisionist and expansionist power, and tag-teamed with stronger Western allies to attempt to redraw Mideast borders in a supposedly “preventive” war against Nasser’s Egypt— in that case, the fear that Nasser would close the Suez Canal.
*The war itself* then provoked Nasser to close canal. 🤦🏼♀️
Sounds familiar, eh?
The author wrongly concludes, however, that Uk, France & Israel’s mistake was backing down, and hence, destroying their own credibility.
The ACTUAL mistake was starting the war to begin with.
Fighting for the sake of “preserving credibility” is like chasing losses at a casino.
Genuine credibility can’t be manufactured by fighting. It naturally flows from vital national interests. The U.S. doesn’t need to “prove” it will fight for its core interests, like defense of the homeland from attack. The credibility of retaliation to attack on the U.S. homeland is inherent.
(Kind of like how Iran’s threats to retaliate to US/Israel attacks on its territory were also inherently credible. Trump was foolish to discount them.)
Where U.S. leaders have screwed up too many times is in trying to manufacture false credibility when the issues at stake *don’t* threaten core U.S. interests — like regime change in Iran, ending Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, etc. and all the other demands Israel foisted on the US-Iran nuclear talks.
Everyone knows Iran cares a lot more about its own survival than the U.S. cares about Iran’s survival. The war is existential for Iran but NOT existential for the US. That means the balance of interests favors Iran, and always will, no matter what crazy hoops the U.S. jumps itself through, at great cost, to try and prove otherwise.
That’s how we ended up fighting 20 years in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. They outlasted us and everyone knew they eventually would.
Let’s hope Trump deescalates the conflict and avoids the credibility trap in Iran, which leads only to quagmire.
@defpriorities
wsj.com/opinion/americ…
Nasser sunk ships in the Suez Canal to block it for nearly 6 months, putting pressure on UK oil imports & UK currency. Britain couldn't prevent closure militarily. Lost oil imports + hit to pound sterling meant the UK needed US help -- and Ike refused unless UK withdrew.
collection.nam.ac.uk/detail.php?acc…
collection.nam.ac.uk/detail.php?acc…
TL;DR: UK sabotaged itself because it failed to understand its military & economic limitations.
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