Director, Middle East Program @defpriorities | Geopolitics | Energy | Grand Strategy | @uchicago Poli Sci Ph.D. Author of "Black Gold & Blackmail" Cornell UP
Apr 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/I tend to think Iran’s ability to adapt, finding creative ways to store or export oil, is stronger than FDD analysts assume.
But let’s say FDD’s right and Iran is forced to shut in production in the near term (weeks).
2/Iran is fighting for its survival. Israel, maybe even the U.S., wants to make Iran a failed state.
The war is existential for Iran — not just the regime. Many regime opponents will support the war effort because, to them, a fractured Iran is worse than the status quo.
