Thread by @revishvilig

Ukraine has pursued a strategy of bringing the war back to Russia, aiming to erode the perception that the full-scale invasion is distant and cost-free for Russian society.

An analysis suggests that strategy is beginning to reshape how the war is felt across Russia. 1/13

The strategy was explicitly articulated by President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2025, as Ukraine significantly expanded its deep-strike campaign inside Russia. 2/13

An internal analysis by the Ukrainian NGO Join Ukraine, shared with the Kyiv Independent, suggests that strategy is beginning to reshape how the war is felt across Russia. 3/13

The organization monitors social media discourse and public reactions across Russian regions and occupied territories, and found that Russians are increasingly confronting the war through casualties, drone attacks, internet blackouts, and economic disruption. 4/13

The regions most directly affected by the war are Russia’s border areas — including Kursk, Bryansk, and Rostov oblasts — as well as occupied Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. 5/13

According to the Join Ukraine analysis, these regions show the highest level of military-related discourse and the sharpest reactions to attacks. These regions also show the most intense and polarized reactions. 6/13

On one hand, there is growing radicalization and calls for escalation — including demands for harsher retaliation, such as strikes with Oreshnik ballistic missiles or even nuclear weapons. 7/13

On the other, there is a growing feeling of fatigue and frustration. Residents criticize authorities for failing to ensure basic security, citing a lack of shelters, ineffective air defenses, and repeated disruptions to daily life. 8/13

Further from the front, the war is still felt strongly across Russia, particularly through casualties and economic strain. 9/13

Losses are disproportionately concentrated in poorer national republics and industrial regions such as Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Urals, amplifying social and regional inequalities. 10/13

Economic impacts—fuel shortages and rising prices—are increasingly linked by residents to the war. At the same time, trust in official narratives is eroding, as government claims of successful air defense often contradict visible damage to infrastructure. 11/13

While fear of repression limits open protest, dissatisfaction is growing and expressed through local grievances, especially in border and industrial regions like Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh. 12/13

In key industrial hubs, including refinery regions, Ukrainian strikes have made the war more physically and visibly present in everyday life. 13/13