Ukraine shot down 140,000 Russian missiles, drones and aircraft over 4 years — including 44,000 Shahed-type drones now hitting US bases in the Middle East.
Ukraine sent 200 advisers to the Gulf.
Trump's response: "The last person we need help from is Zelenskyy" — The Times. 1/
Despite Trump's dismissal, US Central Command requested those Ukrainian advisers now deployed in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
"It was short-sighted dismissing what Ukraine can contribute in specialist advice," says RUSI's Justin Bronk. 2/
Ukrainian officers were astonished to see Gulf states firing as many as eight Patriot missiles (each $3+ million) at a single target — even using them to hit cheap drones.
Ukrainians use only one or two missiles to down Russian ballistic missiles. 3/
"I don't understand what they had been doing, what they've been looking at for the four years we've been fighting," a senior Ukrainian officer said.
The US and Gulf allies appear to have ignored Ukrainian data on improving Patriot intercept rates. 4/
On March 1, three US F-15E fighter jets were shot down by Kuwaiti air defence while pursuing drones.
"In any war friendly fire happens, but in this particular case it was clear negligence," the Ukrainian officer said. 5/
In the first four days of the Iran war, the US and allies launched 800+ Patriot missiles—200 more than Ukraine received in three years.
"Often they were firing thoughtlessly." They used $6 million SM-6 missiles to shoot down $70,000 Shaheds. 6/
Cheap Shaheds caused billions in damage to US and Gulf assets. A $1 billion US early warning radar was hit. At least one $300 million air defence radar was destroyed.
Both were clearly visible in satellite imagery for two months before being struck. 7/
On May 13, 2023, "Matyoryi," a 25-year-old Patriot officer, shot down three Russian jets and two helicopters over Russia's Bryansk region by driving his battery close to the border for an ambush.
He turned defensive systems into offensive weapons. 8/
Matyoryi's team found ways to assemble and dismantle their Patriot battery far faster than American training manuals prescribed — firing and escaping before detection.
They ambushed Russian aircraft in skies Moscow thought were safe. 9/
Colonel Kyrylo Peretyatko, Hero of Ukraine, commanded a NASAMS battery that shot down 12 Russian cruise missiles in two minutes.
"Such operations have not existed in world history. This is a completely different war, which all countries are studying." 10X
Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.
If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/
Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.
Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/
Browder: Zelenskyy is watching the West talk about sanctions, do them halfway, or delay them.
So Ukraine is sending drones into Russia and blowing up oil refineries — imposing its own oil sanctions because Western policy is fickle and half-hearted. 3/
Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.
Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/
Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.
Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/
Kellogg: You do not have to invade Iran.
Take a couple of strategic choke points, take away the regime’s economy, strangle it, and build up resistance from inside. The government starts to fall when its survival is at stake. 3/
Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.
It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/
Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.
The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/
Keane: The next target list should include remaining weapons, nuclear remnants, the organizations sustaining the regime, and Iran’s revenue sources.
The goal is not just military pressure, but forcing economic collapse. 3/
It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/
Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”
It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/
Budanov: Civil resistance under occupation must continue.
Every Ukrainian flag, every sign, every act is a connection with identity, state, history, culture and tradition. It is risky, but without it there will be full colonization. 3/
Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”
After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/
Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.
There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/
Budanov: Russian society still lives by television, but a dangerous thought is already appearing: maybe Russia will still do something, but clearly something is going wrong.
That narrative exists, it threatens the regime, and they know it. 3X
Putin came to Beijing weaker than at his last visit. Moscow took 500+ drones three days earlier. Russia lost net territory last month for the first time since Aug 2024.
With Middle East crude squeezed, Xi now extracts energy on Beijing's terms — CNN. 1/
Xi rolled out the red carpet anyway. Honor guard, gun salute, children with flags. The same welcome Trump received days earlier.
The substance diverged. Trump left without a joint statement. Putin signed one. 2/
Putin and Xi reiterated their "no limits" partnership and a "multipolar world." This is Putin's 25th visit to China in 25 years; they have met more than 40 times.
Putin used a Chinese idiom on his bond with Xi: "One day apart feels like three autumns." 3/