Ukraine shot down 140,000 Russian missiles, drones and aircraft over 4 years — including 44,000 Shahed-type drones now hitting US bases in the Middle East.
Ukraine sent 200 advisers to the Gulf.
Trump's response: "The last person we need help from is Zelenskyy" — The Times. 1/
Despite Trump's dismissal, US Central Command requested those Ukrainian advisers now deployed in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
"It was short-sighted dismissing what Ukraine can contribute in specialist advice," says RUSI's Justin Bronk. 2/
Ukrainian officers were astonished to see Gulf states firing as many as eight Patriot missiles (each $3+ million) at a single target — even using them to hit cheap drones.
Ukrainians use only one or two missiles to down Russian ballistic missiles. 3/
"I don't understand what they had been doing, what they've been looking at for the four years we've been fighting," a senior Ukrainian officer said.
The US and Gulf allies appear to have ignored Ukrainian data on improving Patriot intercept rates. 4/
On March 1, three US F-15E fighter jets were shot down by Kuwaiti air defence while pursuing drones.
"In any war friendly fire happens, but in this particular case it was clear negligence," the Ukrainian officer said. 5/
In the first four days of the Iran war, the US and allies launched 800+ Patriot missiles—200 more than Ukraine received in three years.
"Often they were firing thoughtlessly." They used $6 million SM-6 missiles to shoot down $70,000 Shaheds. 6/
Cheap Shaheds caused billions in damage to US and Gulf assets. A $1 billion US early warning radar was hit. At least one $300 million air defence radar was destroyed.
Both were clearly visible in satellite imagery for two months before being struck. 7/
On May 13, 2023, "Matyoryi," a 25-year-old Patriot officer, shot down three Russian jets and two helicopters over Russia's Bryansk region by driving his battery close to the border for an ambush.
He turned defensive systems into offensive weapons. 8/
Matyoryi's team found ways to assemble and dismantle their Patriot battery far faster than American training manuals prescribed — firing and escaping before detection.
They ambushed Russian aircraft in skies Moscow thought were safe. 9/
Colonel Kyrylo Peretyatko, Hero of Ukraine, commanded a NASAMS battery that shot down 12 Russian cruise missiles in two minutes.
"Such operations have not existed in world history. This is a completely different war, which all countries are studying." 10X
Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.
A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/
The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”
Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/
The shift runs through Ukraine’s war machine.
Twentysomething engineers design drones, young entrepreneurs turn prototypes into production lines, and recent graduates at the Defense Ministry cut red tape to speed weapons to the front. 3/
Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.
Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/
Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.
Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/
Applebaum: Negotiations will become possible only when Russia decides to stop fighting and accepts that it cannot achieve its main goal—the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.
Russia has not reached that point. Putin has never withdrawn that objective. 3/
Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.
They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/
Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.
He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/
Applebaum: Trump failed to account for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliating against Gulf states, and then expressed surprise.
Yet anyone who had studied a war with Iran over the past two decades had already identified both risks as obvious possibilities. 3/
Applebaum: Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan grows out of his business dealings in Turkey.
He invested there, believes those investments went well, and his family company still has interests there — or could. He sees the world in personal, transactional terms. 1/
Applebaum: Trump does not think like a traditional American president representing US interests, the Western alliance, or the democratic world.
He asks what is good for him personally. He likes Erdoğan, and that is the simplest way to understand their closeness. 2/
Applebaum: Trump states his personal view and assumes that it therefore becomes the policy of the United States.
But the American system is more complicated than the president’s preferences: Congress may still restrain the weapons sales he wants to make to Turkey. 3X