Clément Molin Profile picture
Mar 23 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

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This is the small town of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

You can see one line 5km east of the town, a second one 1km east, which is a ring, going all around, protecting it on all flanks, which will allow it to be a strongpoint. Image
In the south first, you can see here the new fortifications built this year in red. Ukrainian counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e allowed them to reorganize the defenses of Pokrovsk'e and Novomykolaivka, both of which are now fortified strongholds. Image
Here, you can see in yellow the New Donbass lines finished version and in orange where the construction/upgrade is ongoing. Image
Here near Novomykolaivka, we can see the construction direction, one east, in the direction of Ternuvate and one south.

The current absence of tree cover allows to see individual positions hidden in the woods (for drone teams and infantry). Image
The next map is for the central part of the frontline, from the Vovocha river to Pavlohrad.

In this direction, 4 lines are under construction/improvement and 4 ring defenses are under preparation for Pokrovsk'e, Vassylkivka, Pavlohrad and Shakhtarske. Image
With the colors, we can see how extended the defensive grid is. Lines are interconnected and construction ongoing on 5 different lines if we include the Pavlohrad ring.

If you zoom, you can see how the main towns are perfectly fitting into these lines. Image
This satellite image from today is showing the ongoing construction of a ring defense for Vassylkivka.

The construction started only few weeks ago and nearly half has been done. Image
Here are all the current and under construction lines. These are only the ones which are with 2-3 ditches as well as 2-3 rows of barbed wire... Image
Now for the central part of Donbas. The construction of alone ditches continue all around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, while the New Donbass lines behind are expanding.

Two new lines behind Dobropilla as well, one around Barvinkove. Image
With the colors, we can see fewer lines under construction mainly because this was the priority before and the main lines are now finished. Pavlorhad and Zaporijjia are the priorities now. Image
Here are some images from today to show how the construction is going and to see that we can see this very easily with satellite images. Image
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Another area where there is some construction, the Oskil and Izium.

This is clearly a secondary area, mainly because the first line here is the Oskil river and it is largely enough to hold the future offensives. Image
Furthur to the north, we can see new fortifications all around Kharkiv and east of the Donets river, around Veliky Burluk. A ring defensive line is also being prepared around Chuhuiv. Image
With the colors, we can see that the missing lines are being completed. This is highly secondary and not a priority. Image
In the northern regions, fortifications are also under preparation, mainly on a second line far from the border, as well as around Chernihiv. Image
To understand how deep the fortifications are going, this is Dnipro, more than 110km from the frontline. Image
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Fortifications are a very important trend to follow if you want to understand both the defensive dynamic of Ukraine and the offensive dynamic of Russia.

Here is white are the main cities and towns, all surrounded by defenses. Image
Thanks for following this thread. I will probably try to map again the russian airstrikes, since we can see them again.

I will probably start with march this year since an intense preparation started. Image
I finish by sharing this good new tool that is very useful.
Thank you all !

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More from @clement_molin

May 5
Dans le sud de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦, l'offensive russe s'intensifie autour d'Orikhiv, l'armée ukrainienne fait face à des difficultés localisées.

J'ai cartographié plus de 1 500 impacts de frappes aériennes qui montrent la direction de l'offensive russe 🇷🇺.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
En février, j'avais réalisé cette carte montrant les probables objectifs russes pour l'année dans le secteur.

Cet objectif semble encore d'actualité au vu de la direction de l'offensive mais les défenses ont été renforcées. Image
Donc, l'objectif russe est de prendre Orikhiv. Pour cela, il faut absolument contrôler les hauteurs au nord-est.

L'armée russe multiplie les infiltrations et s'est emparé d'une partie de Zaliznychne. La clé ici, c'est Ternuvate, qui permettait de sécuriser le flanc nord. Image
Read 15 tweets
May 3
L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 poursuit la fortification d'au moins 45 villes de différentes tailles pour préparer la défense sur le long terme.

Parmi les grandes villes, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Soumy ou Tchernihiv ont été renforcées.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Commençons au nord, oblast de Tchernihiv. (rouge = tranchées et surtout fossés anti-chats, blanc = barbelés et dents de dragons)

Défenses de Hrodnia + 3 lignes en amont
Défenses en construction à Snovsk et Koriukivka
Défenses de Ripky et Tchernihiv
Défenses de Novhorod-Siverskyï Image
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Oblast de Soumy :

Défenses circulaires de Chotska
Défenses circulaires de Hloukhiv
Défenses circulaires de Putyl et Buryn
Défenses circulaires de Konotop (anciennes) Image
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Read 10 tweets
May 1
I agree with what is being said in this thread. Russia 🇷🇺 has been unable for now to reach Dobropilla, which is a critical town to take before attacking Kramatorsk.

However, recent successes in the Siversk and Kostiantynivka directions may unblock the situation

🧵THREAD🧵1/12⬇️ Image
There is one good reason for the failure to advance to Dobropilla this after the august 2024 breakthrough and it's mainly about terrain and logistics.

Assaulting from the east has been difficult because of a well known "kill zone" and well established ukrainian defenses. Image
Instead, Russia had been assaulting westward of Pokrovsk since the start of the year.

The main reason is to unblock the agglomeration's hub position. They had lately some successes and continue to push further. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Le début d'année 2026 n'est pas très bon pour l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui accumule les revers.

Si la traditionnelle offensive de printemps n'a pas encore commencé, les forces russes ont laissé beaucoup de temps aux ukrainiens pour se fortifier.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
La progression russe n'est pas vraiment le facteur le plus important, puisqu'elle suit les saisons, augmentation au printemps et baisse à l'automne.

Mais cette année, on remarque quand même des chiffres faibles pour les 4 derniers mois et pour 15 000 attaques sur 3 mois ! Image
L'année dernière, l'armée russe avait beaucoup de territoires peu défendus, sans grands obstacles et sans grandes villes à prendre, résultats des petites percées de 2024.

Cela lui donnait la possibilité d'avancer continuellement. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
This month of April alone, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched 450 (!) successful strikes on Russia 🇷🇺 and occupied territories.

Among those are part of the nearly 600 mid-range strikes with FP-1 and FP-2 drones into occupied territories since the year started.

🧵THREAD🧵1/7 ⬇️ Image
On this second map, you can see all those mid-range strikes into occupied territories since the year started (most are after march 2026).

In total, around 600 geolocated strikes have been confirmed, hitting various targets in the region. Image
Among those strikes, we now have 34 air-defense systems hit (which does not mean destroyed), 29 radars, or 32 trucks, mainly by long range FPV. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
3 jours après une triple offensive du JNIM et du FLA contre l'armée malienne 🇲🇱 et l'Afrika Corps russe 🇷🇺, le point sur la situation :

Le Front de Libération de l'Azawad a levé ce matin son drapeau sur Kidal, marquant une retentissante victoire.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ Image
Alors que les rebelles touaregs du Front de Libération de l'Azawad (FLA) levaient leur drapeau sur Kidal, russe de l'AC et une partie des maliens (FAMA) étaient escortés par le groupe terroriste JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux Musulmans) en dehors de la ville.
Le 14 novembre 2023, deux semaines après le départ de la MONUSCO de Kidal, les FAMA et Wagner aveint relancé la guerre contre les touareg (malgré les accords de paix d'Alger), s'emparant de la ville.

Depuis, les FAMA et Wagner maintenaient une série d'avant postes dans le nord. Image
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Read 27 tweets

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