Clément Molin Profile picture
Mar 23 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

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This is the small town of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

You can see one line 5km east of the town, a second one 1km east, which is a ring, going all around, protecting it on all flanks, which will allow it to be a strongpoint. Image
In the south first, you can see here the new fortifications built this year in red. Ukrainian counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e allowed them to reorganize the defenses of Pokrovsk'e and Novomykolaivka, both of which are now fortified strongholds. Image
Here, you can see in yellow the New Donbass lines finished version and in orange where the construction/upgrade is ongoing. Image
Here near Novomykolaivka, we can see the construction direction, one east, in the direction of Ternuvate and one south.

The current absence of tree cover allows to see individual positions hidden in the woods (for drone teams and infantry). Image
The next map is for the central part of the frontline, from the Vovocha river to Pavlohrad.

In this direction, 4 lines are under construction/improvement and 4 ring defenses are under preparation for Pokrovsk'e, Vassylkivka, Pavlohrad and Shakhtarske. Image
With the colors, we can see how extended the defensive grid is. Lines are interconnected and construction ongoing on 5 different lines if we include the Pavlohrad ring.

If you zoom, you can see how the main towns are perfectly fitting into these lines. Image
This satellite image from today is showing the ongoing construction of a ring defense for Vassylkivka.

The construction started only few weeks ago and nearly half has been done. Image
Here are all the current and under construction lines. These are only the ones which are with 2-3 ditches as well as 2-3 rows of barbed wire... Image
Now for the central part of Donbas. The construction of alone ditches continue all around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, while the New Donbass lines behind are expanding.

Two new lines behind Dobropilla as well, one around Barvinkove. Image
With the colors, we can see fewer lines under construction mainly because this was the priority before and the main lines are now finished. Pavlorhad and Zaporijjia are the priorities now. Image
Here are some images from today to show how the construction is going and to see that we can see this very easily with satellite images. Image
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Another area where there is some construction, the Oskil and Izium.

This is clearly a secondary area, mainly because the first line here is the Oskil river and it is largely enough to hold the future offensives. Image
Furthur to the north, we can see new fortifications all around Kharkiv and east of the Donets river, around Veliky Burluk. A ring defensive line is also being prepared around Chuhuiv. Image
With the colors, we can see that the missing lines are being completed. This is highly secondary and not a priority. Image
In the northern regions, fortifications are also under preparation, mainly on a second line far from the border, as well as around Chernihiv. Image
To understand how deep the fortifications are going, this is Dnipro, more than 110km from the frontline. Image
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Fortifications are a very important trend to follow if you want to understand both the defensive dynamic of Ukraine and the offensive dynamic of Russia.

Here is white are the main cities and towns, all surrounded by defenses. Image
Thanks for following this thread. I will probably try to map again the russian airstrikes, since we can see them again.

I will probably start with march this year since an intense preparation started. Image
I finish by sharing this good new tool that is very useful.
Thank you all !

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 11
In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.
In total, around 37 electric substations have been hit, together with oil and gas infrastructure.

This has drastic consequences on both civilian and military infrastructure of the peninsula.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 8
During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground. Image
Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.

This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets

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