This claim about fossil fuels sounds compelling—but it’s misleading. Let’s break it down 🧵
Yes, fossil fuels were ~77% of global energy in 1995 and ~76% today.
But that stat hides what actually changed.
Hydro hasn’t really moved since 1995 and wind/solar came from nowhere.
The key issue: global energy demand has exploded.
So even if fossil fuels stayed a similar percentage, the total energy pie got MUCH bigger.
That means renewables didn’t “fail”—they grew massively, just alongside rising demand.
In fact, renewables are the fastest-growing energy sources in history.
•Solar costs ↓ ~90% since 2010
•Wind costs ↓ ~60–70%
•Deployment has scaled to almost 100% of all TWh growth last year (with new Nuclear)
That’s not “barely a dent.” That’s exponential growth.
The stat also relies on “primary energy,” which is a flawed comparison.
Fossil fuels waste a lot of energy as heat. Solar/wind/geothermal/hydro don’t.
So depending on how you measure, fossil fuels can look artificially dominant.
Look at electricity (where renewables actually compete):
Renewables now generate ~30%+ of global electricity—and rising fast.
Many regions already hit 50%+ at times.
That’s a real shift.
The “renewables are just add-ons” argument is outdated.
Residential solar is one of the fastest-growing asset classes in America. But the dirty secret? O&M is broken. Expensive crews. Fragmented vendors. Zero data. Here's how we're fixing it. 🧵
Most solar O&M today looks like this:
→ A routine inspection ticket gets created
→ A Level 3 specialist drives 90 minutes to clean panels
→ You pay premium labor rates for commodity work
→ The homeowner hears nothing
This is the status quo. It's insane.
Several new companies like OhmNow have started to solve this.
An AI-native operating system for field services — purpose-built to execute high-volume, light-duty work orders at scale.
If you want to cut oil demand fast, you have to think about oil burned in machines, not for power plants.
Governments wanting the fastest path to reduce oil demand are focused on electrifying those machines with clean energy.
Passenger vehicles. Gasoline cars are the single biggest oil products consumer on earth. Electric vehicles are already cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars. EVs are already manufactured at scale.
Home heating oil. Millions of homes still burn oil for heat, especially in the Northeast and parts of Europe. Heat pumps powered by clean electricity can deliver 2–4x the efficiency of oil boilers. Electrified heating is one of the fastest ways to eliminate oil from buildings.
We have been talking about peak electricity demand for several years. There is a smart way to solve it and a "vibes" way to solve it.
We won't have a lack of annual energy, we have a lack of peak electricity capacity around 300 hours per year.
Electricity rates went up 5% last year. Rates are expecting to skyrocket even faster this year with Utilities choosing the most expensive solutions they can possible find.
Everyone wants to answer to be natural gas plants. The vibes are so strong that @CaterpillarInc stock has double on the back of 20-30MW natural gas units.
Electricity trading regions like the PJM have raised electricity so quickly that electricity prices became a political issue.
Existing combustion engines that are already paid for are fast and reliable.
But new ones are simply no longer cheap.
@CaterpillarInc Utility companies acknowledge that new natural gas is 2-3X higher than it was 5 years ago.
Higher capital costs + fuel price volatility = higher rate base + bill volatility.
Gas still has a role — but increasingly as insurance
If something like this happens one response is to implement "infrastructure solutions" paid for by the AI data center companies. Something like the Apollo Alliance
If you just focus on energy efficiency measures that feature a 5 year payback or less would be $200B of investment per year. Mostly in HVAC/insulation. mordorintelligence.com/industry-repor…
Approximately 30 to 40 million households in the USA are estimated to be income-eligible for the Department of Energy (DOE)'s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Utilities and Data centers would pay for this effort. .toolkits.raponline.org/building-moder…
First principle: There is no such thing as "backup" on the grid. The "grid" is a diversity of resources that are expertly managed by professionals without political bias.
Thermal plants go offline for maintenance (often spring/fall). Nuclear refueling lasts weeks to months. Unexpected boiler issues happen.
AI tools are used to predict wind and solar output.
Critics argue that planned thermal maintenance ≠ daily renewable variability. What about unplanned maintenance?
Wind and solar fluctuate daily. But weather forecasts are really good and AI are making them better.
Multi-day lulls (“dunkelflaute”) require a full thermal fleet ready to run which costs lots on money.
Just read several embargoed reports coming out this week.
We are no longer in a “data center growth” cycle.
We are in a power procurement arms race.
Hyperscalers are trying "off-grid" but it isn't really working so they are going "hybrid"
-Co-locating with generation
-Pursuing direct interconnection
-Backstopping with on-site gas
-Signing massive renewable + storage portfolios for capacity
NG is currently winning time-to-power but it increases rates for everyone else on the grid.
Hyperscalers are figuring out how BYOC contracts for batteries in the community shorten that timeline and save money for consumers but ISOs/Utilities are changing their policies slowly to accomodate.