This claim about fossil fuels sounds compelling—but it’s misleading. Let’s break it down 🧵
Yes, fossil fuels were ~77% of global energy in 1995 and ~76% today.
But that stat hides what actually changed.
Hydro hasn’t really moved since 1995 and wind/solar came from nowhere.
The key issue: global energy demand has exploded.
So even if fossil fuels stayed a similar percentage, the total energy pie got MUCH bigger.
That means renewables didn’t “fail”—they grew massively, just alongside rising demand.
In fact, renewables are the fastest-growing energy sources in history.
•Solar costs ↓ ~90% since 2010
•Wind costs ↓ ~60–70%
•Deployment has scaled to almost 100% of all TWh growth last year (with new Nuclear)
That’s not “barely a dent.” That’s exponential growth.
The stat also relies on “primary energy,” which is a flawed comparison.
Fossil fuels waste a lot of energy as heat. Solar/wind/geothermal/hydro don’t.
So depending on how you measure, fossil fuels can look artificially dominant.
Look at electricity (where renewables actually compete):
Renewables now generate ~30%+ of global electricity—and rising fast.
Many regions already hit 50%+ at times.
That’s a real shift.
The “renewables are just add-ons” argument is outdated.
Everyone's talking about the AI data center buildout like it's just a money problem. It's not. There are 5 distinct hard constraints stacked on top of each other — and solving one just reveals the next.
Why there is no way the US can unlock 100GW of AI compute by 2030.
First, the scale of the gap.
The US has ~50 GW of data center capacity online today. Bain and McKinsey both put demand at ~100 GW by 2030.
That means adding ~10 GW per year for 5 years straight. The record year so far? About 2.5 GW actually delivered. We need 4x that. Every year.
Constraint #1: Grid interconnection.
Lets assume this gets solved with an interuptible tariff.
Data centers get a "qualified" yes which requires them to curtail 100-200 hours a year. Match with VPPs and you could see 10% rate decreases across the country. energyempirepodcast.substack.com/p/the-ai-power…
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵
“US energy independence” is basically a myth.
Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse than Europe.
Strait of Hormuz = ultimate leverage.
Iran may have figured out it can “hold the global economy hostage” cheaply. Potential toll revenues: $70–90B/year.
Residential solar is one of the fastest-growing asset classes in America. But the dirty secret? O&M is broken. Expensive crews. Fragmented vendors. Zero data. Here's how we're fixing it. 🧵
Most solar O&M today looks like this:
→ A routine inspection ticket gets created
→ A Level 3 specialist drives 90 minutes to clean panels
→ You pay premium labor rates for commodity work
→ The homeowner hears nothing
This is the status quo. It's insane.
Several new companies like OhmNow have started to solve this.
An AI-native operating system for field services — purpose-built to execute high-volume, light-duty work orders at scale.
If you want to cut oil demand fast, you have to think about oil burned in machines, not for power plants.
Governments wanting the fastest path to reduce oil demand are focused on electrifying those machines with clean energy.
Passenger vehicles. Gasoline cars are the single biggest oil products consumer on earth. Electric vehicles are already cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars. EVs are already manufactured at scale.
Home heating oil. Millions of homes still burn oil for heat, especially in the Northeast and parts of Europe. Heat pumps powered by clean electricity can deliver 2–4x the efficiency of oil boilers. Electrified heating is one of the fastest ways to eliminate oil from buildings.
We have been talking about peak electricity demand for several years. There is a smart way to solve it and a "vibes" way to solve it.
We won't have a lack of annual energy, we have a lack of peak electricity capacity around 300 hours per year.
Electricity rates went up 5% last year. Rates are expecting to skyrocket even faster this year with Utilities choosing the most expensive solutions they can possible find.
Everyone wants to answer to be natural gas plants. The vibes are so strong that @CaterpillarInc stock has double on the back of 20-30MW natural gas units.
Electricity trading regions like the PJM have raised electricity so quickly that electricity prices became a political issue.
Existing combustion engines that are already paid for are fast and reliable.
But new ones are simply no longer cheap.
@CaterpillarInc Utility companies acknowledge that new natural gas is 2-3X higher than it was 5 years ago.
Higher capital costs + fuel price volatility = higher rate base + bill volatility.
Gas still has a role — but increasingly as insurance
If something like this happens one response is to implement "infrastructure solutions" paid for by the AI data center companies. Something like the Apollo Alliance
If you just focus on energy efficiency measures that feature a 5 year payback or less would be $200B of investment per year. Mostly in HVAC/insulation. mordorintelligence.com/industry-repor…
Approximately 30 to 40 million households in the USA are estimated to be income-eligible for the Department of Energy (DOE)'s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Utilities and Data centers would pay for this effort. .toolkits.raponline.org/building-moder…