Start with the obvious: data centers need firm power, not really 24/7 as they run at 50% capcity factors.
Solar/Wind are fuel, batteries are really providing the capacity.
So the assumption is gas & nuclear carry the load.
Big Tech energy portfolios tell a more nuanced story.
May 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I hear this framing all of the time and it is disappointing to hear it from @OurWorldInData.
Basically says that we use alot of land to grow biofuels. Put solar panels on that same land and you could power every car and truck on Earth.
i get that Biofuel crops currently occupy ~32 million hectares globally. That generates about 1,400 TWh/yr of fuel energy.
Solar panels on the same land? ~32,000 TWh/yr.
But this is productive land and most landowners want to grow things. Most of the land is not near a substation.
May 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
PJM just cried "Uncle". They admit that capacity prices are up 1,000%+ in two auctions and that money goes to existing generators, doesn't send a signal to build new on 3 year contracts.
The prescription is pretty bold.
They aren't doing a market patch, this is a rethink 🧵
Tesla partnered to make its own batteries. SpaceX makes its own engines.
Geothermal companies almost entirely outsource drilling to oil & gas contractors who don’t prioritize their work.
Control your supply chain or someone else controls your timeline.
Apr 19 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Everyone's talking about the AI data center buildout like it's just a money problem. It's not. There are 5 distinct hard constraints stacked on top of each other — and solving one just reveals the next.
Why there is no way the US can unlock 100GW of AI compute by 2030.
First, the scale of the gap.
The US has ~50 GW of data center capacity online today. Bain and McKinsey both put demand at ~100 GW by 2030.
That means adding ~10 GW per year for 5 years straight. The record year so far? About 2.5 GW actually delivered. We need 4x that. Every year.
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵
“US energy independence” is basically a myth.
Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse than Europe.
Strait of Hormuz = ultimate leverage.
Iran may have figured out it can “hold the global economy hostage” cheaply. Potential toll revenues: $70–90B/year.
This claim about fossil fuels sounds compelling—but it’s misleading. Let’s break it down 🧵
Yes, fossil fuels were ~77% of global energy in 1995 and ~76% today.
But that stat hides what actually changed.
Hydro hasn’t really moved since 1995 and wind/solar came from nowhere.
The key issue: global energy demand has exploded.
So even if fossil fuels stayed a similar percentage, the total energy pie got MUCH bigger.
That means renewables didn’t “fail”—they grew massively, just alongside rising demand.
Mar 17 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Residential solar is one of the fastest-growing asset classes in America. But the dirty secret? O&M is broken. Expensive crews. Fragmented vendors. Zero data. Here's how we're fixing it. 🧵
Most solar O&M today looks like this:
→ A routine inspection ticket gets created
→ A Level 3 specialist drives 90 minutes to clean panels
→ You pay premium labor rates for commodity work
→ The homeowner hears nothing
This is the status quo. It's insane.
Mar 8 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
If you want to cut oil demand fast, you have to think about oil burned in machines, not for power plants.
Governments wanting the fastest path to reduce oil demand are focused on electrifying those machines with clean energy.
Passenger vehicles. Gasoline cars are the single biggest oil products consumer on earth. Electric vehicles are already cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars. EVs are already manufactured at scale.
Feb 23 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
We have been talking about peak electricity demand for several years. There is a smart way to solve it and a "vibes" way to solve it.
We won't have a lack of annual energy, we have a lack of peak electricity capacity around 300 hours per year.
Electricity rates went up 5% last year. Rates are expecting to skyrocket even faster this year with Utilities choosing the most expensive solutions they can possible find.
Everyone wants to answer to be natural gas plants. The vibes are so strong that @CaterpillarInc stock has double on the back of 20-30MW natural gas units.
Electricity trading regions like the PJM have raised electricity so quickly that electricity prices became a political issue.
Existing combustion engines that are already paid for are fast and reliable.
But new ones are simply no longer cheap.
Feb 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
If something like this happens one response is to implement "infrastructure solutions" paid for by the AI data center companies. Something like the Apollo Alliance
If you just focus on energy efficiency measures that feature a 5 year payback or less would be $200B of investment per year. Mostly in HVAC/insulation. mordorintelligence.com/industry-repor…
Feb 22 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The grid debate isn’t “clean energy vs gas.” No one cares.
It’s about achieving system cost and reliability without 9% rate increases every year and hopefully avoiding natural gas price volatility.
First principle: There is no such thing as "backup" on the grid. The "grid" is a diversity of resources that are expertly managed by professionals without political bias.
Thermal plants go offline for maintenance (often spring/fall). Nuclear refueling lasts weeks to months. Unexpected boiler issues happen.
AI tools are used to predict wind and solar output.
Feb 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Just read several embargoed reports coming out this week.
We are no longer in a “data center growth” cycle.
We are in a power procurement arms race.
Hyperscalers are trying "off-grid" but it isn't really working so they are going "hybrid"
-Co-locating with generation
-Pursuing direct interconnection
-Backstopping with on-site gas
-Signing massive renewable + storage portfolios for capacity
Feb 18 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The dumbest thing is that the data center companies are combining the need for training and inference and assuming that all it needs to be in 1,000MW increments. They don't. Here are some estimates...
For US frontier AI training specifically, demands could reach 20-25 GW total by 2028 across multiple companies, with single-model clusters needing 2-5 GW.
@AnthropicAI anthropic.com/news/build-ai-…
Feb 13 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
The real question isn’t, “How do we build more power plants?”
It’s “How do we add power system capacity — fast?”
That’s a fundamentally different problem. And it leads to a different answer: load flexibility — especially distributed batteries — aggregated into reliable, enforceable resources that can speed interconnection, shave peaks, and strengthen the grid for everyone.
This is from the great @timothyhade.
He then points out the physical lead times for large power transformers, distribution transformers, and of course new CCGT turbines.
Jan 26 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The U.S. grid isn’t “full.”
It’s underutilized.
Less than half of existing grid capacity is used on average—yet we keep planning like every new MW requires new steel in the ground.
That’s a trillion-dollar mistake. 🧵
@SpanbergerForVA
@GovSherrillNJ
We have the ability to reduce electricity rates while demand is surging (data centers, EVs, manufacturing).
The default response:
➡️ Build more infrastructure
➡️ Raise rates
There’s a better option: use what we already have, better. While we build a smarter grid.
Oct 5, 2025 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I have been digging into why NJ lost six large electricity generating stations since 2018. I get the partisan talking points, but as an investor, I wanted to understand why the owners shut down these plants.
Let's start with the Oyster Creek Nuclear —its closure in 2018 was mainly due to economic unviability. NY and IL passed a law to keep them open, but NJ and PA did not. The Inflation Reduction Act passed subsidies to keep these plants open, but this plant shut down in 2018 during Trump1. .energy.gov/ne/articles/in…
Sep 28, 2025 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Smart meters were all the rage in 2009 (aka Advanced Metering Infrastructure, AMI) and even then most of us knew they were unlikely to bring any real benefits for residential customers. Little did we know it would create a crisis. 🧵
They have saved money on meter readings and enable more frequent energy readings (15-min, hourly, real time). Some states, like Texas, have unlocked this data, but most utilities have not. They can't, because their systems rooted in @Oracle and @SAP aren't too rickety.
Jun 17, 2025 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
The vast majority of rate increases comes from the dramatic overbuilding of Distribution grids. Most are built to old norms to meet peak demand for 50 hours a year. Using Virtual Power Plants, batteries, grid enhancing technologies are 90% cheaper.
This is the moment for the VPP industry to lead. With 150 GW of new load expected in the next five years, the grid needs scalable, clean, and flexible capacity fast. Virtual power plants (VPPs) must be positioned as core infrastructure along side expensive new NG
May 30, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Such a great summit at the @WhiteHouse yesterday.
As we celebrate Vogtle Units 3&4 coming online it is important to take stock on our existing nuclear fleet.
Many existing nuclear sites have room for more large reactors, e.g., the Harris Nuclear Plant in North Carolina was designed for four reactors, but currently only has one.
Across the US, 19 sites have only one reactor, 31 have two reactors, 3 have three reactors, and only Vogtle (1) has four reactors, so we have room to add more reactors at existing #nuclear sites.
12 operating nuclear sites and one decommissioned nuclear site are located within these eligible jurisdictions and are likely to be eligible for the ITC energy communities bonus
May 18, 2024 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
I like this episode but @EmilyRPeck and @felixsalmon really lost the narrative on this one. I think there is a mistaken notion that $10k EVs and low cost #solar is a Chinese phenomenon. It is not, it is technical innovation from the USA. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sla…
The cost of #solar came down because innovation brought conversion efficiency from 12% to over 21% today. Manufacturing and automation was largely invented by German and American companies in 2005-2010. China scaled it up and brought down costs faster.
