Mikhail Khodorkovsky Profile picture
Mar 24 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
We already knew the Kremlin was sending men to die in Ukraine.

But a new @dossier_center investigation based on leaked military records shows it's far worse than anyone imagined. For soldiers in front-line assault units, the odds of surviving the war are approaching zero.

(Read on)Image
According to internal documents, more than 28,000 soldiers were assigned to a single Russian division in 2024. Its full wartime strength should not exceed 14,000.

That means roughly a whole division's worth of personnel was lost in one year — killed, wounded beyond return, captured, or missing.

[2/12]Image
This unit has been at the front line since April 2024 and has never been withdrawn for rest or reconstitution. Instead, it is sustained by a constant inflow of new recruits from across Russia, sent directly into assault groups to replace the dead. They die. They are replaced. The cycle continues.

[3/12]Image
The structure mirrors what Wagner Group did under Prigozhin: a relatively protected core of command and support staff, and expendable assault units fed by a steady stream of fresh bodies.

The difference is that Wagner relied on convicts. Today, many filling the same role are ordinary citizens who signed contracts — often with little understanding of what they were walking into.

[4/12]Image
Officially, Russia recorded just 12 deaths for this division in all of 2024. In reality, nearly 4,800 soldiers are listed as "missing for more than one day." Cross-referencing the data suggests most of them are dead.

[5/12]
Independent estimates put the real toll at roughly 5,000 killed or missing, and up to 10,000 severely wounded and permanently removed from service. That's around 15,000 irreversible losses from a single unit in a single year.

[6/12]
A new recruit joining this division had a 15-17% chance of being killed within a year, and a 30-35% chance of suffering an injury that ended their service permanently. For those assigned to assault roles — which is where most new recruits are sent — the odds were even worse.

[7/12]
New soldiers are not distributed evenly. They are overwhelmingly funneled into front-line rifle companies where losses are highest. In one regiment alone, more than 6,800 soldiers passed through in 2024. Around 5,000 were lost.

[8/12]
The data also shows that older soldiers are more likely to be killed, and many officers are not career professionals but reservists or hastily trained personnel. This is not an army built for sustainability. It is built to absorb losses.

[9/12] Image
Over two years of fighting, this division advanced roughly 50 kilometers — taking tens of thousands of casualties in the process. This isn't speculation or battlefield anecdotes. It's based on internal personnel records that were never supposed to be made public.

[10/12]
Putin's complete disregard for human life — including the lives of his own citizens — should surprise no one at this point. He doesn't care how many people need to die, Russians or Ukrainians, as long as he remains in power.

[11/12]
Read @dossier_center's full investigation here:

Follow for more!

[12/12]dossier.center/minus27/

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More from @khodorkovsky_en

Apr 28
State-run pollster in Russia have published a noticeable drop in Putin's approval.

Last week, Russia's economy minister stood up and admitted the country's reserves are largely gone.

🧵Let's take a look at what it all could mean: [1/14]
The trigger appears to be the continued economic downturn. GDP is down 1.8%, with industry and construction also weakening.

Even more strikingly, the economy minister has admitted that a large share of Russia's reserves has already been used up. Putin has demanded answers.



[2/14]finance.yahoo.com/economy/articl…
On the surface, this looks like a standard economic story. But in Russia, this is a major departure from the norm.

The country has been through far worse without public acknowledgement from the top. So when criticism appears, it usually serves a political function.

[3/14]
Read 14 tweets
Apr 27
Imagine this: A major disaster hits your country. People are dying, cities are burning, the environment is ruined. You look to your national leader for a plan, but they've nowhere to be found.

Sounds unlikely? In Putin's Russia, it's an everyday reality. In 26 years in power, he has vanished every time the nation is in pain. [1/16]
Image
Right now, in Russia's Tuapse, it's literally raining oil. After drone strikes, black soot covers the city, animals are dying, and a 10,000 sq m slick is spreading in the Black Sea. And the president is radio silent.

[2/16]
Residents are choking on benzene levels three times the limit and desperately asking, "Where is Putin?" Well, while Tuapse faces an ecological disaster he is busy renaming his alma mater after Dzerzhinsky (the Cheka founder) and meeting the President of the Seychelles.

[3/16] Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 23
The West keeps making the same fundamental mistake about Russia.

I’ve spent a decade in the system, ten years in six different Russian prisons, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that switching the "Tsar" won't fix a thing.

Here is why the "Good Tsar" myth is a trap, and what actually needs to happen. 🧵 [1/12]
There is a prevailing hope in DC and Brussels that if we just replace the current man in the Kremlin with a "liberal" leader, everything will click into place.

I’m telling you: It won’t. [2/12]
I once conducted a small "social experiment."

I met with four high-ranking, qualified American politicians and asked them: "Imagine you wake up tomorrow as the President of Russia. It’s a massive, diverse territory controlled by a rigid center. To maintain power, the center must strip 60% of resources from the regions and then redistribute them.

How do you convince people to accept that? [3/12]
Read 12 tweets
Apr 15
Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU.

Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe.

Here is why Moscow is panicking. 🧵 [1/14] Image
Putin’s EU Veto: The End of Strategic Obstruction

For years, Orban turned Hungary into a pressure point inside the EU. Because of the bloc's need for unanimity, Budapest could, and often did, slow or block decisions on any issue, be it sanctions, funding, or military support. [2/14]
The Cost of Obstruction.

Orbán’s track record of blocking aid to Ukraine is staggering:
2022: Blocked an €18bn aid package.
2023: Stalled crucial payments through the European Peace Facility.
2024: Obstructed a €90bn long-term support plan for Kyiv. [3/14]
Read 14 tweets
Apr 9
It is nearly impossible for a European to comprehend the psychological reality inside Russia. It is not just "fake news." It is a total deconstruction of reality.

Let me try to immerse you in the world Russians live in [1/9]
First, understand the isolation. Around 90% of Russians have never left the country. Even fewer have ever stepped beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union.

For the vast majority, the "West" is not a place they have visited. It is a ghost story told by the state.  [2/9]
This is difficult to imagine in Europe. You take a 2-hour train ride and you are in another country. In Russia, the scale is different. When I was transported from Moscow to prison, the journey took 7 days. SEVEN. 7 days on a train in the same country. [3/9]
Read 9 tweets
Apr 8
The real Iran crisis is nearing a terrifying tipping point. We are one mistake away from a catastrophic energy and water collapse that will trigger a global humanitarian emergency.

Here is why the "informal limits" are about to break: 🧵 [1/15] Image
The Iran crisis is approaching a crossroads. Either it settles into a fragile political arrangement, or it escalates into a wider regional conflict. Either way, the consequences will reach far beyond the Middle East. [2/15]
For Washington, a prolonged war is politically difficult to sustain. Legal constraints, competing priorities and the pressure of the upcoming midterms all push toward outcomes that appear decisive without being open-ended. [3/15]
Read 15 tweets

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