Mikhail Khodorkovsky Profile picture
Mar 24 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
We already knew the Kremlin was sending men to die in Ukraine.

But a new @dossier_center investigation based on leaked military records shows it's far worse than anyone imagined. For soldiers in front-line assault units, the odds of surviving the war are approaching zero.

(Read on)Image
According to internal documents, more than 28,000 soldiers were assigned to a single Russian division in 2024. Its full wartime strength should not exceed 14,000.

That means roughly a whole division's worth of personnel was lost in one year — killed, wounded beyond return, captured, or missing.

[2/12]Image
This unit has been at the front line since April 2024 and has never been withdrawn for rest or reconstitution. Instead, it is sustained by a constant inflow of new recruits from across Russia, sent directly into assault groups to replace the dead. They die. They are replaced. The cycle continues.

[3/12]Image
The structure mirrors what Wagner Group did under Prigozhin: a relatively protected core of command and support staff, and expendable assault units fed by a steady stream of fresh bodies.

The difference is that Wagner relied on convicts. Today, many filling the same role are ordinary citizens who signed contracts — often with little understanding of what they were walking into.

[4/12]Image
Officially, Russia recorded just 12 deaths for this division in all of 2024. In reality, nearly 4,800 soldiers are listed as "missing for more than one day." Cross-referencing the data suggests most of them are dead.

[5/12]
Independent estimates put the real toll at roughly 5,000 killed or missing, and up to 10,000 severely wounded and permanently removed from service. That's around 15,000 irreversible losses from a single unit in a single year.

[6/12]
A new recruit joining this division had a 15-17% chance of being killed within a year, and a 30-35% chance of suffering an injury that ended their service permanently. For those assigned to assault roles — which is where most new recruits are sent — the odds were even worse.

[7/12]
New soldiers are not distributed evenly. They are overwhelmingly funneled into front-line rifle companies where losses are highest. In one regiment alone, more than 6,800 soldiers passed through in 2024. Around 5,000 were lost.

[8/12]
The data also shows that older soldiers are more likely to be killed, and many officers are not career professionals but reservists or hastily trained personnel. This is not an army built for sustainability. It is built to absorb losses.

[9/12] Image
Over two years of fighting, this division advanced roughly 50 kilometers — taking tens of thousands of casualties in the process. This isn't speculation or battlefield anecdotes. It's based on internal personnel records that were never supposed to be made public.

[10/12]
Putin's complete disregard for human life — including the lives of his own citizens — should surprise no one at this point. He doesn't care how many people need to die, Russians or Ukrainians, as long as he remains in power.

[11/12]
Read @dossier_center's full investigation here:

Follow for more!

[12/12]dossier.center/minus27/

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More from @khodorkovsky_en

Mar 26
Putin's most powerful weapon in this war isn't the Oreshnik missile.

It is something far cheaper and infinitely more scalable: lies.

🧵Shameless lies literally capture cities — here're some examples: Image
The Russian military has a term for this: "capturing a settlement on credit."

They report the victory on Telegram and TV now and plan to achieve it "someday." This way, the same town can be "taken" over and over, for example, General Kuzovlev "captured" Kupiansk twice in two months.

[2/14]militarnyi.com/en/news/gerasi…
As a visual proof for these premature "captures," there is a field maneuver called "flagovtyk" — a squad plants a flag in a destroyed village, photographs it, and reports it "liberated."

The whole operation is just content creation.

[3/14]
Read 14 tweets
Mar 21
The Iran war is expected to bring Putin an extra $4.5 billion in April alone. That buys him time in Ukraine, but it does not buy him a breakthrough.

Here's why: 🧵[1/6] Image
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial share of global oil supply from the market, and demand for Russian crude rose sharply. At the same time, higher energy prices complicate the task for Western governments trying to maintain strict sanctions.

[2/6]
This escalation stalled the negotiating process, slowed EU decision-making, and strengthened those who argue for a "pause" in supporting Ukraine. The war has also intensified competition for the same limited stocks of air defence systems and ammunition.

[3/6]
Read 6 tweets
Mar 20
Starlink terminals on the Russian front are now just expensive dinner tables.

@elonmusk shut off every unregistered device — and it turns out the entire Russian military machine ran on an American commercial product.

(🧵Read on)
In this war, internet drives the entire war machine on both sides.

Command posts look like a cross between a gamer's room — with dozens of screens streaming drone feeds, coordinating artillery in real time.

[2/12] Image
Small groups, drones, and real-time coordination determine the difference between life and death. Whoever detects the enemy first and relays coordinates to a drone operator fastest — survives. The chain works when there's internet.

[3/12]
Read 12 tweets
Mar 19
Ilya Remeslo filed the complaint that put Navalny on trial.

Then testified against him in a prison courtroom.

[1/16] 🧵Yesterday, he went on Telegram and called Putin a war criminal who must resign and face trial
Remeslo is a 42-year-old pro-Kremlin blogger. Since at least 2015, he has filed complaints, written denunciations, and helped block opposition websites. He was not adjacent to the Kremlin's machinery — he was part of it.

[2/16] Image
There's been an established financial trail between him and the Kremlin: ~10 million rubles a year from entities linked to Konstantin Kostin, former head of internal politics at the presidential administration. Kostin ran anti-opposition smear campaigns funded, according to investigators, with Kremlin black cash.



[3/16]proekt.media/en/guide-en/pu…Image
Read 16 tweets
Mar 13
The West spent four years building an energy strategy to make Putin irrelevant.

A war in Iran could collapse it in months — not by restoring Russian supply, but by proving the alternative is just as fragile. (🧵Read on — 1/13) Image
When Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he committed a strategic error that had nothing to do with the battlefield. He demonstrated to every European buyer that Russia was an unreliable energy supplier.



[2/13] eia.gov/todayinenergy/…Image
Europe responded by cutting dependence on Russian oil and gas. New LNG routes, Gulf suppliers, diversified pipelines — four years of infrastructure built to ensure the continent would never again be vulnerable to Putin's use of energy as a weapon.



[3/13]consilium.europa.eu/en/infographic…Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 13
Journalists have exposed Center 795 — Russia's newest assassination unit.

It was caught because one of its officers used Google Translate to talk to a hired killer, and did so under the watchful eye of the FBI. 🧵[1/12] Image
Center 795 was created in December 2022 after Unit 29155, the GRU squad behind the Skripal poisoning and the Montenegro coup attempt, was exposed.

Investigators identified officers by name, by photo, and even by their passports, which had been issued with consecutive numbers.

[2/12]
Moscow did not try to fix the old unit but built a new one instead. Center 795 was set up as Military Unit 75127 and placed inside Kalashnikov Concern, the arms manufacturer. Its roughly 500 officers are listed on the company payroll as regular employees.

[3/12]
Read 12 tweets

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