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Mar 25 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ The Russian army is recruiting alcoholics directly from rehab and sending them to the front line, according to a serving Russian soldier, who says they "couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head." It highlights how Russia is using 'disposable' men. ⬇️ Image
2/ In the undated video below, an unnamed Russian soldier complains about the latest replenishments in his detachment, who are to be sent to assault squads: "They've got a bunch of fucking cripples. They couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head."
3/ If the men refuse, they are badly beaten. The commanders are indifferent to the recruits' condition, despite the gruelling task they face of crossing vast open fields with no cover from Ukrainian artillery and drones:
4/ "What’s up with that guy? How does he manage to get around? Even if he does make it there, he won’t even be able to [fight], you know? And it’s like, "just let him get there".
5/ He says that he personally saw alcoholics being recruited "from a rehab center" in Petrozavodsk, where their bank cards were confiscated and their accounts drained by "the women who processed the paperwork" – likely so-called 'black recruiters'.
6/ "The rest are just cripples, drunks. Even their legs are atrophied a bit from the vodka. There's probably a fuckload of them, about thirty of them."
7/ Russia has been recruiting alcoholics for some time, although they are militarily useless and die quickly on the front line – whether through being killed by the Ukrainians, disposed of by their own side, or simply through their own ill-health.
8/ As the Russian warblogger and journalist Anastasia Kashevarova has noted, a lot of this is due to corruption. Recruiters receive bonuses for signing up men – whether or not they are fit to fight – and the socially marginalised are especially vulnerable.
9/ Men with drinking problems often sign up (or have their signatures forged) while they are drunk, or are intimidated into signing up by being given a choice between the army and one of Russia's notoriously brutal jails.
10/ This highlights how Russia is dealing with its huge manpower losses in Ukraine. As a report from @dossier_center illustrates, summarised in the thread below from @khodorkovsky_en, Russian units need a constant inflow of recruits to replace the dead.
11/ As Kashevarova has highlighted, recruiting alcoholics is counter-productive – they are combat-ineffective and cost the state a lot of money in recruitment bonuses and death compensation payments. However, the Russian army's recruitment incentive structure ignores this.
12/ Russian military recruiters appear to operate not on how effective a recruit will be, but purely on the basis of arbitrary recruitment quotas. As long as the army's recruitment system has found enough men to replenish a depleted assault squad, it has achieved its objective.
13/ The immediate death of every member of that squad and their failure to achieve a military objective is someone else's problem. /end

Source:
t.me/mobilizationne…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Mar 26
1/ With American ground forces building up in the Gulf region, much attention has been paid to Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf. But what about the Iranian-held islands in the Strait of Hormuz? Here's why they might be a higher priority for possible landings. ⬇️ Image
2/ Seven Iranian-controlled islands punctuate the narrow strait between Iran and Oman: from west to east, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak and Hormuz itself. All are part of Iran's Hormozgan province.
3/ Two more Iranian islands, Bani Forur and Sirri, are located further west, in the Persian Gulf proper. They have strategic value as locations for reconnaissance, surveillance of shipping traffic, and possible interdiction. Both have an Iranian military presence.
Read 34 tweets
Mar 26
1/ The Ukraine war is a "dead end" which "could last for a hundred years", according to a gloomy Russian commentary. The transparency of the battlefield and its domination by drones has made large offensives "downright impossible" and is causing vast numbers of casualties. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' has written a long and detailed analysis of the situation at the front lines, following similarly gloomy outlooks by other warbloggers (see the thread below).
3/ "I have repeatedly pointed out that the front in the Ukrainian theatre of military operations is in a stalemate. This situation took shape last year, marked by the Battle of Pokrovsk.
Read 57 tweets
Mar 26
1/ An experiment by Russia's FSB has indicated that thousands of Russians are likely to be willing to carry out sabotage attacks on behalf of Ukraine or other foreign actors. In only three hours, the FSB recruited ten would-be saboteurs via Telegram. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russia has experienced regular sabotage attacks carried out by people who have been recruited by foreign agents over the Internet, usually via Telegram. They are sometimes tricked into thinking they are working for the Russian security forces.
3/ More often, however, saboteurs act purely for money. Russia has used the same methodology to recruit saboteurs in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly concluding that the war in Ukraine is stalemated and cannot be won by military means. Two prominent warbloggers have published gloomy commentaries explaining why. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Fighterbomber', a blogger with links to the Russian Air Force, comments:

"We still have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and then Donbas will be liberated.

In my opinion, we have three main options."
3/ "The first is to continue the creeping offensive with varying success, regardless of losses, which will be, to put it mildly, very heavy.

Judging by the current slow pace, that [needs] at least five years.
Read 25 tweets
Mar 25
1/ Russia should take advantage of the Iran war by launching a massive war-winning offensive to capture Kyiv and Odesa, says a prominent Russian warblogger. The conditions he identifies for Russia doing so, however, are so onerous that they are practically impossible to meet. ⬇️ Image
2/ Alexey Zhivov asks:

"How is victory possible in the Special Military Operation?

After the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the battle for Kupiansk, any significant news about the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces has ceased to come from the front."
3/ "All military action was reduced to an exchange of missile and drone strikes and [Kremlin spokesman Dmitry] Peskov's inappropriate statements about our great "concern" for the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government."
Read 22 tweets
Mar 24
1/ Russian forces are struggling to communicate without Starlink, according to a commentary by Russia's prominent warblogging channel Rybar on Telegram. It says that Ukraine's position has improved and its losses have fallen due to the shutdown of Starlink for Russian forces. ⬇️ Image
2/ Rybar writes:

"A month and a half has passed since Starlink ceased operation for Russian troops in the Special Military Operation. The situation has partially stabilised in some areas, but the overall problems remain.
3/ "Elon Musk's terminals provided essential communication and operational efficiency on the front lines, as well as supporting the operation of both drones and ground robotic systems.
Read 9 tweets

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