Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 26 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The Mullah Regime of Iran is in very deep trouble. Any critical thinker can see that.

What I find remarkable is how many people who should know better are so blinded by their hostility to Netanyahu and Trump that they ignore the military context and the domestic context inside Iran.

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The outcome of this war was decided before it began. The January 2026 uprisings occurred because the Iranian currency had collapsed and the economy was collapsing.

This was due to a massive increase in American economic warfare starting right at the beginning of the second Trump administration. Inflation was over 100% a year in January 2026.
2/
The war has made this much worse. Hyper-inflation has now set in and that has only one ending. IMO Iran’s economy and mullah regime will totally collapse in 4-5 months, even if the war ends immediately.

Even if oil exports last until then, hyperinflation means the oil industry workers will go out on strike and the regime protection forces must seek other jobs to feed their families. The latter has already started to happen.
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On the military front, these recent Iranian missile/drone launch depletion curves, using AI collected empirical data, shows TELs and munitions may still be squirreled away in dispersal sites, and some blocked tunnels may have been excavated.

The volume has been knocked back over 90%. Only drones are a sustaining asset.
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Nowhere is the Mullah Regime's plight underlined more than with Iranian threats against Gulf power to desalination plants.

These threats are genocidal in nature. The lack of understanding of that point just blows my mind.

5/
The inept reactions we see from those who should know better demonstrate how few people understand what happens when the potable water supply is gone in a desert.

Pres. Trump will use graphite weapons against Iranian power plants to show he follows through on his threats and the IRGC will respond with more lethal force against the Gulf infrastructure.

6/
x.com/TrentTelenko/s…
It’s likely Iran will hit this target set no matter what Trump does or does not do as they will seek to do as much damage as they can as they go down.

The IRGC are looking for leverage, and their faction of the Mullah regime doesn't care about the consequences, as this is a survival issue for them.

This is the full 1945 German NSDAP "Sampson option" protocol.

7/
How is Iran "winning" when they are shattering their relationships with every Iran appeaser globally?

Additionally, the bottom 40% of Iran has been using barter to obtain food since Nov 2025, and that is what kicked off the failed Jan 2026 rebellion.
8/
Yet otherwise, smart people still say Iran is 'winning' because they hate Trump. Even the ones who acknowledge Mullah regime security forces are not getting paid.

This is madness.


9/
Iranian food insecurity cannot be anything but chronic, and yet some of these people say Iran has food supplies via using the Yuan to buy it across land borders and not by sea via Bandar Abbas.

Which is a dollar-denominated trade and is the cheapest food source due to the lower transportation costs of sea and connected railroads.

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This is maritime supply chain logistics 101.

Iran as an example of the "irrational regime hypothesis" is less and less a hypothesis and more and more a horror story.


11/
Given Iran's controlling IRGC faction is executing the 1945 German NSDAP end of regime protocol.

We are at the end of an age.

The IRGC-dominated Mullah regime will try to do what it can to bring down the West and the Arab world.

12/
Whether is because the IRGC/Mullah faction hates the Arabs as they are Sunnis, more than they hate the West as secular / Christian, or they hate the Jews is an open question.

[I think "Yes" covers it.]

13/
For the IRGC faction of Iran's Mullah Regime, the concerns of the "internal power game" control, with external reality merely as props for that struggle.

Which is the "Irrational Regime hypothesis" in a nutshell.

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Again, we are at the end of an age.

The damage Iran’s Mullah regime does to the world on its inevitable way out guarantees it.

15/15 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 29
This passage:

"Lebanese security forces reportedly seized 1 truck last June carrying 5,000 explosive drones..."

...is the heart of why I say that the US Army & USMC ground troops will bleed heavily in their first real drone war.

Drone War🧵
Each of those 5,000 Hezbollah drones is individually far more lethal than a dumb 155mm shell, and a 5-ton truck can carry only 176 of them.

Each of those 5,000 drone can kill a truck carrying those 176 shells.

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You simply can't hide from drones like you can from a shell.

It will follow you inside hard cover with a thermobaric warhead.

There is no safe space on the battlefield unless you build one with fishing nets and drone jammers.
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
I'm tempted to say the difference between military flag ranks who are competent at 2026 peer to peer warfare, and those who are not, is the understanding and application of attritional loss curves to combat loss rates, electronic warfare and logistics.

Professional military education (PME)🧵
1/Image
The set of curves I had an AI produce for me above have been used for air warfare many times starting at the end of WW2, in the USSBS after WW2 and by many classic RAND airpower studies from the 1950's to 1980's.

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All post 9/11/2001 Western flag ranks are counter-insurgency (COIN) trained & experienced.

They have no gut feel at all to statistical attrition models at all.

These "COIN-head" flags may prove to be highly resistant to changing this. Which is required to deal with drones.
2/Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 27
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.

The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
1/3
A US Army serious about drone warfare would:

- Rebuild the full EW enterprise with organic division-level EW battalions and real exercises.

- Embed EW jamming into all combat branches (not MI-only).

- Shift to gun/autocannon dominant combined-arms counter-drone doctrine.

2/3
- Require FAA drone pilot + Ham radio licenses for flag ranks to build drone domain literacy.

None of these four reforms will happen until after US Army soldiers are deep in both defeat and buckets of blood.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
It is extremely unlikely that this shooter acted alone given the following:

1. Reports are the guns were cached disassembled in a black bag, in a room outside the secured Secret Service perimeter.

2. The room the guns were cached in didn't have television surveillance.

🧵
1/
3. The shooter arrived at the hotel the day before the event.😯

4. TSA rules require firearms to be transported in checked baggage, unloaded, and locked in a hard-sided container, declared to the airline at check-in.

2/
5. Local DC law requires firearms in vehicles to be inaccessible from the passenger compartment and unloaded.

6. Washington DC is not a "safe passage" jurisdiction for non-residents without a license. The shooter lacked this license.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 14
USN flag ranks & their staffers have been fighting the idea of distant economic blockade of China tooth an nail as a response to China invading Taiwan for 30 years.

They really don't want a recent precedent of a successful blockade...

1/3
...to prevent their Carrier fleet Pickett's charge into the South China Sea.

Specifically distant blockade as a strategy against China makes having/regaining 100 Cold War era

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...frigates and destroyer tenders supporting them on distant blockade stations outside the 2nd Island chain, "budget relevant" for a military strategy of conducting three years of blockade enforcement.

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Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
The high death rate of Russian troops due to a lack of casualty evacuation was highly visible in March-September 2022.

I've documented this consistently, repeatedly and at great technical depth.

Russia Strong "slopaganda" has buried it over and over.

1/
I was calling out two dead for every three Russian wounded in Sept 2022 as the more realistic Russian casualty ratio in Ukraine because it was taking more than 24 hours to get to the equivalent of a battalion aid station.

2/3
I asked @grok to summarize my receipts on Russian casualty ratios since February 2022, which are clipped below:

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Read 4 tweets

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