Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 26 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The Mullah Regime of Iran is in very deep trouble. Any critical thinker can see that.

What I find remarkable is how many people who should know better are so blinded by their hostility to Netanyahu and Trump that they ignore the military context and the domestic context inside Iran.

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The outcome of this war was decided before it began. The January 2026 uprisings occurred because the Iranian currency had collapsed and the economy was collapsing.

This was due to a massive increase in American economic warfare starting right at the beginning of the second Trump administration. Inflation was over 100% a year in January 2026.
2/
The war has made this much worse. Hyper-inflation has now set in and that has only one ending. IMO Iran’s economy and mullah regime will totally collapse in 4-5 months, even if the war ends immediately.

Even if oil exports last until then, hyperinflation means the oil industry workers will go out on strike and the regime protection forces must seek other jobs to feed their families. The latter has already started to happen.
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On the military front, these recent Iranian missile/drone launch depletion curves, using AI collected empirical data, shows TELs and munitions may still be squirreled away in dispersal sites, and some blocked tunnels may have been excavated.

The volume has been knocked back over 90%. Only drones are a sustaining asset.
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Nowhere is the Mullah Regime's plight underlined more than with Iranian threats against Gulf power to desalination plants.

These threats are genocidal in nature. The lack of understanding of that point just blows my mind.

5/
The inept reactions we see from those who should know better demonstrate how few people understand what happens when the potable water supply is gone in a desert.

Pres. Trump will use graphite weapons against Iranian power plants to show he follows through on his threats and the IRGC will respond with more lethal force against the Gulf infrastructure.

6/
x.com/TrentTelenko/s…
It’s likely Iran will hit this target set no matter what Trump does or does not do as they will seek to do as much damage as they can as they go down.

The IRGC are looking for leverage, and their faction of the Mullah regime doesn't care about the consequences, as this is a survival issue for them.

This is the full 1945 German NSDAP "Sampson option" protocol.

7/
How is Iran "winning" when they are shattering their relationships with every Iran appeaser globally?

Additionally, the bottom 40% of Iran has been using barter to obtain food since Nov 2025, and that is what kicked off the failed Jan 2026 rebellion.
8/
Yet otherwise, smart people still say Iran is 'winning' because they hate Trump. Even the ones who acknowledge Mullah regime security forces are not getting paid.

This is madness.


9/
Iranian food insecurity cannot be anything but chronic, and yet some of these people say Iran has food supplies via using the Yuan to buy it across land borders and not by sea via Bandar Abbas.

Which is a dollar-denominated trade and is the cheapest food source due to the lower transportation costs of sea and connected railroads.

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This is maritime supply chain logistics 101.

Iran as an example of the "irrational regime hypothesis" is less and less a hypothesis and more and more a horror story.


11/
Given Iran's controlling IRGC faction is executing the 1945 German NSDAP end of regime protocol.

We are at the end of an age.

The IRGC-dominated Mullah regime will try to do what it can to bring down the West and the Arab world.

12/
Whether is because the IRGC/Mullah faction hates the Arabs as they are Sunnis, more than they hate the West as secular / Christian, or they hate the Jews is an open question.

[I think "Yes" covers it.]

13/
For the IRGC faction of Iran's Mullah Regime, the concerns of the "internal power game" control, with external reality merely as props for that struggle.

Which is the "Irrational Regime hypothesis" in a nutshell.

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Again, we are at the end of an age.

The damage Iran’s Mullah regime does to the world on its inevitable way out guarantees it.

15/15 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 22
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.

This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.

A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵

1/
Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:

1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**

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2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck

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Read 19 tweets
May 21
Texas has seven unique advantages in terms of infrastructure, political culture, and resource geography that make it uniquely suited to be the next industrial heartland of the USA.

The seven industrial development advantages of Texas 🧵
1/
They are as follows:

1. About 94% of land in Texas is privately held. This vastly limits what the Federal, State and local governments can do to in terms of regulations and NIMBY games.

2/ Image
2. Texas is mostly flat. Texas hill country is small beer compared to the Appalachian and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This compounds with #1 for industrial development.

3. Texas has a lot of water compared to the US west & sea access.

3/ Image
Image
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Read 7 tweets
May 20
I am still trying to see the military relevance of the MV-75 Cheyenne II.

Especially when 3rd rate powers like Iran have Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) / “Misagh-358” jet engine powered, loitering, surface to air munitions.

1/4
The MV-75 Cheyenne II can't outrun a jet powered munition.

These things. ⬇️

2/4

None of the standard US Suppression of Enemy air Defense (SEAD) radar sensor detection practices work on a “Misagh-358.”

3/4
Read 5 tweets
May 12
This is one of the most logistically incompetent hot takes by any German journalist in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

95% getting through is a 5% loss rate per trip
95%(x) for 10 to 20 kills means x = 200 to 400 trucks on this route
10 trips means 40% total fleet loss - 80 to 160 trucks
1/Image
You can follow the 5% loss curve in this 500 unit fleet at 10 exposures in the graphic below.

A 40% fleet loss in 10 days from a 5% drone loss rate is logistical collapse for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine.

Only some trying to get AfD eyeballs would say different.

2/ Image
This leaves out the fact that the Russian Army doesn't use *ANY* mechanized logistical enabler like pallets, Truck D-rings, forklifts, or telehandlers.

Russian trucks are in the drone kill zones 3 times as long as a Western truck due to loading times.

Receipts:
3/3
x.com/i/grok/share/e…
Read 4 tweets
May 10
Regarding this:

"The DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range of approximately 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers, was specifically designed and publicly nicknamed by Chinese military analysts as the "Guam Killer.""

I disagree with those analysts.
1/
The Chinese PD-2900 drone (2,500 km range, 12-hour endurance, 250 km/h speed, stealthy Su-57-like design) is far more a "Guam Killer" than the DF-26.

It is a matter of numbers.

2/
As laid out by warquants -dot- com, China is buying one million OWA drones to destroy all US/Taiwan/Taiwan allied military logistics from Guam to the China coast.

A quantity of one million "Shaheed plus" class OWA drones has quality all its own.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 5
The reduction in murder deaths -IS NOT- due to law enforcement, or reductions in underlying rates of violence.

It is due to the fact that medical care has improved such that the same gunshot wound inflicted in 2015 is 1/3 as lethal as 1960.

Murder rate🧵
1/
Homicide statistics since the early 1960s are not comparable to earlier periods because medical advances have turned many fatal injuries into survivable ones.

See the CDC report below⬇️


2/
There are four major medical trauma care changes since 1960 reducing murder rates:

1. Trauma centers established ~1961.

2. Standardized trauma procedures ~1978.

3. Adoption of military (Korea/Vietnam) emergency treatment, air transport, and improved triage ~1986.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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