Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 26 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The Mullah Regime of Iran is in very deep trouble. Any critical thinker can see that.

What I find remarkable is how many people who should know better are so blinded by their hostility to Netanyahu and Trump that they ignore the military context and the domestic context inside Iran.

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The outcome of this war was decided before it began. The January 2026 uprisings occurred because the Iranian currency had collapsed and the economy was collapsing.

This was due to a massive increase in American economic warfare starting right at the beginning of the second Trump administration. Inflation was over 100% a year in January 2026.
2/
The war has made this much worse. Hyper-inflation has now set in and that has only one ending. IMO Iran’s economy and mullah regime will totally collapse in 4-5 months, even if the war ends immediately.

Even if oil exports last until then, hyperinflation means the oil industry workers will go out on strike and the regime protection forces must seek other jobs to feed their families. The latter has already started to happen.
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On the military front, these recent Iranian missile/drone launch depletion curves, using AI collected empirical data, shows TELs and munitions may still be squirreled away in dispersal sites, and some blocked tunnels may have been excavated.

The volume has been knocked back over 90%. Only drones are a sustaining asset.
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Nowhere is the Mullah Regime's plight underlined more than with Iranian threats against Gulf power to desalination plants.

These threats are genocidal in nature. The lack of understanding of that point just blows my mind.

5/
The inept reactions we see from those who should know better demonstrate how few people understand what happens when the potable water supply is gone in a desert.

Pres. Trump will use graphite weapons against Iranian power plants to show he follows through on his threats and the IRGC will respond with more lethal force against the Gulf infrastructure.

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x.com/TrentTelenko/s…
It’s likely Iran will hit this target set no matter what Trump does or does not do as they will seek to do as much damage as they can as they go down.

The IRGC are looking for leverage, and their faction of the Mullah regime doesn't care about the consequences, as this is a survival issue for them.

This is the full 1945 German NSDAP "Sampson option" protocol.

7/
How is Iran "winning" when they are shattering their relationships with every Iran appeaser globally?

Additionally, the bottom 40% of Iran has been using barter to obtain food since Nov 2025, and that is what kicked off the failed Jan 2026 rebellion.
8/
Yet otherwise, smart people still say Iran is 'winning' because they hate Trump. Even the ones who acknowledge Mullah regime security forces are not getting paid.

This is madness.


9/
Iranian food insecurity cannot be anything but chronic, and yet some of these people say Iran has food supplies via using the Yuan to buy it across land borders and not by sea via Bandar Abbas.

Which is a dollar-denominated trade and is the cheapest food source due to the lower transportation costs of sea and connected railroads.

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This is maritime supply chain logistics 101.

Iran as an example of the "irrational regime hypothesis" is less and less a hypothesis and more and more a horror story.


11/
Given Iran's controlling IRGC faction is executing the 1945 German NSDAP end of regime protocol.

We are at the end of an age.

The IRGC-dominated Mullah regime will try to do what it can to bring down the West and the Arab world.

12/
Whether is because the IRGC/Mullah faction hates the Arabs as they are Sunnis, more than they hate the West as secular / Christian, or they hate the Jews is an open question.

[I think "Yes" covers it.]

13/
For the IRGC faction of Iran's Mullah Regime, the concerns of the "internal power game" control, with external reality merely as props for that struggle.

Which is the "Irrational Regime hypothesis" in a nutshell.

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Again, we are at the end of an age.

The damage Iran’s Mullah regime does to the world on its inevitable way out guarantees it.

15/15 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 11
Russia faces a logistical dilemma in occupied Ukraine for which it has no good solutions.

Crimea is a de facto island fed by road and rail bridges Ukraine can now destroy at will, and Russia cannot stop.

And Ukraine is destroying those bridges.

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Russia's air defense has suffered a nearly complete "Lanchester Square Collapse" proximate with the Ukrainian mass deployment of both 150 km range AI truck hunting drones and bridge busting FP-2 OWA drones.

Map H/T United24media
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Any route Russian trucks take to Crimea will result in parking lots near replacement pontoon bridging for both those kinds of drones to exploit.

"Trucks that mass together...die together.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 10
Saving Space Access From Kessler Syndrome

Elon Musk’s plan for XAI satellite data centers, and all use of space for any purpose, faces inevitable collapse until a solution emerges for the problem of Kessler Syndrome (see Wikipedia). 🧵

1/
This will occur when enough collisions of small orbital debris pieces from old dead satellites hits the steadily increasing number of new satellites until the whole thing spirals into mass collisions.

Kessler Syndrome computes that this will destroy all existing

2/ Image
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...communications, navigation, observation and research satellites in low/medium orbit, and prevent all further satellites launched, for 40+ years, until enough pieces fall out of orbit into the Earth’s atmosphere.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 9
Do you remember all the 2023 US Navalist accounts o X that screamed at @johnkonrad and I about pointing out the containerized anti-ship OWA drone threat to the US fleet.

Welcome to 2026 Ukrainian anti-ship OWA drone threat, you US Navalist yo-yo's. ⬇️

1/2
"Operation Spiderweb with Chinese characteristics" is coming for you all, and we have the receipts.

We need a whole lot of air defense guns everywhere to stop drones that you guys still refuse to fund.

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For fun and reference of guns versus missile air defense, this YouTube test scenario pits 100 Shahed-136 one-way attack drones against the historic US Navy Task Force 38.1 from 1944.


3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 3
Just...no. The 8th AF fudged its accuracy numbers.

It excluded "gross error" bombing runs beyond 3,000 feet from the target. Which were above 10% of all 1944 bombing runs.

Below, the inner circle is what a 1944 1,000 foot (304m) CEP in WW2 looked like when dropped from 400(+) four engine heavy bombers.
1/Image
Using this document:

THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY
Bombing Accuracy, USAAF Heavy and Medium Bombers in the ETO
MILITARY ANALYSIS DIVISION
First Edition 3 November 1945
Second Edition January 1947

You find both mission failures & gross errors were "excluded data"
2/ Image
And that both increased altitude and the number of combat boxes involved made CEP worse.

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Read 12 tweets
Jun 3
There are sound photographic reasons I'm talking about Russia's domestic fuel tanker supply distribution chain breaking down.

Dead tanker trucks can't move fuel.

Plus additional tanker trucks diverted & moving from 🇷🇺 to 🇺🇦 can't deliver fuel domestically either.

Fuel🧵
1/
For additional photographic proof of 🇷🇺 tanker truck supply distribution breaking down, see here in Belgorod:


2/
And see here elsewhere in Crimea:



3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
This manpower sweep problem is actually a lot worse for the Russians than Western military intelligence is capable of giving credit.

It takes a Russian labor gang about 3 hours to load 16 tons of wooden boxes w/o a convenient box car to truck line up. (below upper right)

🧵
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Because the Russian Army doesn't use pallets, forklifts, telehandlers nor D-rings anywhere in their supply chain to strap down pallet loads.

You need massive numbers of conscripts to load and unload from train cars to trucks & vice versa.

See⬇️
2/
This has a whole lot of knock on effects in how the non-mechanized Russian supply system works in the age of GMLRS & drones.

You see here a commercial to tactical truck swap of wooden boxes in the Russian Army operational/strategic depths.

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Read 8 tweets

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