The Mullah Regime of Iran is in very deep trouble. Any critical thinker can see that.
What I find remarkable is how many people who should know better are so blinded by their hostility to Netanyahu and Trump that they ignore the military context and the domestic context inside Iran.
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The outcome of this war was decided before it began. The January 2026 uprisings occurred because the Iranian currency had collapsed and the economy was collapsing.
This was due to a massive increase in American economic warfare starting right at the beginning of the second Trump administration. Inflation was over 100% a year in January 2026.
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The war has made this much worse. Hyper-inflation has now set in and that has only one ending. IMO Iran’s economy and mullah regime will totally collapse in 4-5 months, even if the war ends immediately.
Even if oil exports last until then, hyperinflation means the oil industry workers will go out on strike and the regime protection forces must seek other jobs to feed their families. The latter has already started to happen.
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On the military front, these recent Iranian missile/drone launch depletion curves, using AI collected empirical data, shows TELs and munitions may still be squirreled away in dispersal sites, and some blocked tunnels may have been excavated.
The volume has been knocked back over 90%. Only drones are a sustaining asset.
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Nowhere is the Mullah Regime's plight underlined more than with Iranian threats against Gulf power to desalination plants.
These threats are genocidal in nature. The lack of understanding of that point just blows my mind.
The inept reactions we see from those who should know better demonstrate how few people understand what happens when the potable water supply is gone in a desert.
Pres. Trump will use graphite weapons against Iranian power plants to show he follows through on his threats and the IRGC will respond with more lethal force against the Gulf infrastructure.
It’s likely Iran will hit this target set no matter what Trump does or does not do as they will seek to do as much damage as they can as they go down.
The IRGC are looking for leverage, and their faction of the Mullah regime doesn't care about the consequences, as this is a survival issue for them.
This is the full 1945 German NSDAP "Sampson option" protocol.
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How is Iran "winning" when they are shattering their relationships with every Iran appeaser globally?
Additionally, the bottom 40% of Iran has been using barter to obtain food since Nov 2025, and that is what kicked off the failed Jan 2026 rebellion.
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Yet otherwise, smart people still say Iran is 'winning' because they hate Trump. Even the ones who acknowledge Mullah regime security forces are not getting paid.
Iranian food insecurity cannot be anything but chronic, and yet some of these people say Iran has food supplies via using the Yuan to buy it across land borders and not by sea via Bandar Abbas.
Which is a dollar-denominated trade and is the cheapest food source due to the lower transportation costs of sea and connected railroads.
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This is maritime supply chain logistics 101.
Iran as an example of the "irrational regime hypothesis" is less and less a hypothesis and more and more a horror story.
Given Iran's controlling IRGC faction is executing the 1945 German NSDAP end of regime protocol.
We are at the end of an age.
The IRGC-dominated Mullah regime will try to do what it can to bring down the West and the Arab world.
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Whether is because the IRGC/Mullah faction hates the Arabs as they are Sunnis, more than they hate the West as secular / Christian, or they hate the Jews is an open question.
[I think "Yes" covers it.]
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For the IRGC faction of Iran's Mullah Regime, the concerns of the "internal power game" control, with external reality merely as props for that struggle.
Which is the "Irrational Regime hypothesis" in a nutshell.
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Again, we are at the end of an age.
The damage Iran’s Mullah regime does to the world on its inevitable way out guarantees it.
When I've talked about the legacy of Soviet industrial gigantism (one big factory) making Putin era Russia far more vulnerable to a drone strategic bombing campaign.
I've talked about this vulnerability in a couple of previous threads. Here is a shorter one:
Putin's decades long "Russian exceptionalism" propaganda campaign, that says WW2 was won on the Eastern Front, has made Russians incapable of seeing this.
There is so much to object to here that I'm going to restate some basic design observations on the FP-5 to clarify how the Russian reflexive control data fed AI slop that is polluting public discussions of the FP-5.
1. The FP-5 Flamingo is about four times the launch weight of a BGM-109 Tomahawk (i.e. ~13,200 lb), and 2-3 times the range (i.e. ~1,620 nmi) while carrying twice the warhead mass (i.e. ~2,000 lb).
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2. The FP-5 design concept is modelled on the USAF MGM-13 Mace GLCM as Fire Point told Ukrainian military analysts - but designed with modern technology to be extremely cheap to make (claimed 1/6 the cost of a Tomahawk - likely not counting the engine cost).
The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that in 2026 Ukraine has not only replicated, but likely exceeded, the 2018 capabilities of the USAF's Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at at Barksdale AFB.
Electronic warfare is always a "saving throw" with an expiration date for the defense.
Plus no one in the world, since 1989, has invested in enough mobile guns for robust AA-combined arms to screw up the simple arithmetic of a saturation drone/missile attacks.
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Russia burned out Ukraine's considerable stocks of 5V55 SAMs (~3,300 rounds), 9M83 SAMs (~1,000) and 9M38 SAMs (~800) by repeat saturation attacks.
Ukraine returns the favor. This is not that difficult to grasp.
Saturation attacks were central to legacy Soviet doctrine.
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We have just seen over Moscow today - with Ukrainian drones - the Russo-Ukrainian War's version of the RAF’s first 1,000-bomber raid of World War II, codenamed Operation Millennium, which took place on the night of May 30–31, 1942.
Operation Millennium, marked the first tactical deployment of the RAF "bomber stream".
That is, the tactic of flying a dense, tightly timed formation along a narrow corridor to overwhelm German radar networks and anti-aircraft defenses of the Kammhuber line. 2/3
When I look at the design of the air defense rings around Moscow.🧐⬇️
I can't help but think Ukraine used a 2026 "Drone Stream' to saturate one sector of these ring defenses like the RAF did to the Kammhuber line.
The Soviets built their industrial plants to minimize transportation impact on its railway system, and later, it's trucking.
This 2013 time stamped Jon Parshall presentation on WW2 US vs German Vs Soviet tank industries underlines this Soviet reality
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In the 1950's and 1960's the CIA and Strategic Air Command (SAC) Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) targeting planners discovered this quirk of the Soviet centralized economy.