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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Mar 27 • 8 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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US senators move to sanction Hungary over blocking Ukraine aid.

A bipartisan bill from Shaheen and Tillis would target Hungarian officials with asset freezes and visa bans for obstructing support to Kyiv and buying Russian energy — as Orbán holds up a €90B EU loan, FT. 1/ Image
Image
The “Block Putin Act” is led by Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rep. Sen. Thom Tillis.

It would force Trump to sanction officials tied to Russian oil and gas deals and efforts to block Ukraine support. 2/
The trigger is Budapest’s veto. Orbán is blocking a €90B EU loan to Ukraine ahead of elections where polls show his party trailing by 23 points against Tisza. 3/
Hungary has increased reliance on Russian energy since 2022 — alongside Slovakia — while most of Europe cut imports.

Orbán accuses Kyiv of restricting oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine. 4/
Orbán’s message: “No oil — no money.” He links Ukraine aid to reopening Russian crude transit, tying EU financing directly to energy concessions. 5/
Tillis: “Allies must cut revenue streams fueling Putin’s war.” Shaheen: “No country should get a free pass for enabling Moscow.” 6/
Trump has backed Orbán’s re-election. JD Vance may visit Hungary before the vote — signaling political support amid the dispute. 7X
Source: ft.com/content/35cdef…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
Iran may be winning the war despite losing battles.

Tehran's goal is to show US and Israel cost of confronting Iran is militarily, economically and politically unsustainable. Strategy is survive and exhaust — Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Iran has been preparing for this war for nearly 40 years.

Tehran decentralized command, distributed political authority across regional nodes and cultivated multiple successors at every IRGC level. This enabled regime to withstand assassination of many high-ranking leaders. 2/
US and Israel's decapitation campaign created unexpected problem: replacement commanders are more dangerous.

Younger, fought Americans in Iraq and Israelis in Lebanon and Syria. They don't share older generation's caution who remembered catastrophic Iran-Iraq War costs. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
Putin is making $760M a day from oil as the Iran war drives prices higher.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues are set to double this month — from $12B to nearly $24B — boosted by price spikes and US sanctions waivers, Telegraph and KSE Institute. 1/ Image
Even if the war ends soon, Russia’s energy revenues are projected at $218.5B this year. That’s +63% vs pre-war expectations — an $84B windfall under an optimistic scenario. 2/
If the conflict lasts 6 months, revenues could reach $386.5B. That’s +188% vs baseline projections — turning a regional war into a massive cash surge for Moscow. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
The Pentagon prepares “final blow” options for Iran.

Plans include ground invasions, seizure of key islands, and a massive bombing campaign if talks fail and Hormuz remains blocked, Axios. 1/ Image
US officials outlined 4 main scenarios.

Seizing Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil hub), Larak (controls Hormuz), Abu Musa and nearby islands, or intercepting Iranian oil shipments in the strait. 2/
Plans also include strikes or raids on nuclear sites.

Options range from ground operations to secure enriched uranium to large-scale airstrikes to destroy facilities. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
Shapiro: The only thing Iran can do at this point is harass people.

They can harass their neighbors with occasional missile and drone strikes.

They can bother some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Shapiro: There are two types of victory, political victory and actual victory.

We may already have an actual victory. If Iran ends up falling, that victory will belong to President Trump because we will have weakened the foundations of the Iranian regime. 2/
Shapiro: On the one hand, Iran winning would just be them surviving. That survival amounts to not losing.

But is not losing really victory for Iran? It might be for the moment, but not for long, because Iran would remain isolated and devoid of basic resources. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
Rutte: Ukraine's NATO membership is not on the cards for now. When the war stops, Putin must know the reaction will be devastating if he tries again.

In Paris in January, a coalition of the willing agreed on what Ukraine's security guarantees should look like. 1/
Rutte: Critical US support for Ukraine, paid for by allies through PURL, continues to flow — and this is crucial. Intelligence the US shares with Ukraine is essential.

So is defense industrial output from US stockpiles — Patriot interceptors and other vital military gear. 2/
Rutte: Iran's nuclear and missile capability is potentially an existential threat to Israel and a threat to Europe. Iran is an exporter of chaos to the region and to the world. Let's not be naive.

The US is degrading that capability. And yes, I applaud it. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 26
Russia has abducted more than 19,000 Ukrainian children. Many are taught to shoot, dig trenches and hate their homeland — so Russia can send them back to fight against Ukraine, Newsmax.

Psalm 82:4: “Rescue the weak and the needy; deliver them from the hand of the wicked.”1/ Image
Four years ago Russian soldiers took at least 46 children from a Kherson orphanage — all under the age of five — to Crimea and placed them for adoption into Russian families.

One was adopted by Sergey Mironov, a former chairman of Russia’s upper chamber of parliament and a Putin ally. 2/
16-year-old Sofia was told she would go to a peaceful seaside camp. Instead she spent weeks in military barracks — digging trenches, assembling weapons, shooting, running war simulations. Her coach was a former Wagner mercenary.

Her parents did not believe her until she showed them video footage. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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