Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 27 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Russia is trying to reduce contact with the outside world. It’s starting to look like a war-time Iran model: closed, controllable, security-first.

In early March, mobile internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg was blocked on FSB orders — almost 3 weeks, Economist. 1/ Image
In Moscow, the social contract is: no civic freedom, but daily life works via apps.

Then suddenly parents can’t message kids, parking can’t be paid, couriers can’t deliver, taxis revert to phone calls. 2/
Price tag: up to 1B rubles a day ($12M) for business losses.

People started buying radios, pagers, paper maps. A payphone shows up at Patriarch’s Ponds like conceptual art: “Guess what they’re burying.” 3/
Kremlin’s bigger achievement since 2022 was war and business as usual.

Belgorod hears sirens, Moscow gets festivals and decorations. The blackout breaks that balance. Psychologists describe it as the “sense of emergency” finally entering Moscow life. 4/
Why now? Not Ukraine. The security services.

Two drivers:
- War feels stuck and unwinnable. Fatigue from war dominates mood in polling.
- Iran lesson: Israel-US used networks and cameras to target leaders. Moscow wants tighter control over anything exploitable. 5/
Next step: pressure Telegram.

Telegram reaches 94M people per month in Russia. State media starts floating “terrorism” investigations into Durov. Blocking begins early. VPNs also targeted.

To push users to “Max” — a national messenger built for surveillance. 6/
Telegram is embedded everywhere, including inside the regime.

Peskov complains it hurts propaganda. Regional officials say lack of info is an even bigger threat. Pro-war military bloggers: "One prominent account posts "Putin must resign" — then gets sent to a psych hospital." 7X

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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 28
For 471 days, Ukrainian sergeant Serhiy Tyshchenko, 46, lived in a mud bunker dug under an asphalt road near Bakhmut.

Russian dead bodies piled up near the entrance. “We climbed over them and threw soil on them to kill the stink” he says. “But it never goes”, The Independent. 1/ Image
Tyshchenko says he arrived at the position when Biden was US president.

By the time he left, a new US leader was in charge and was “trying to persuade Ukraine to give up the land” he had defended for 471 days. 2/
For 16 months, he stayed underground with so little air he felt close to suffocation.

He says hunger and extreme thirst were constant. More than once, the mud bunker collapsed around them. He got out alive and kept serving near the front. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28
German Defence Chief, Breuer: In 2029, Russia could wage a major war against a NATO country.

It is building up its military to a strength nearly doubling from before the war against Ukraine.

I've never experienced a situation that dangerous like it is today. 1/
Breuer: Capabilities Europe needs to acquire in the next 3 to 4 years: drones, precision strike, and space capabilities. These are the most urgent needs.

We put them on a prioritized list, and we are working it. We are good on our way to do so. 2/
Breuer: We can’t think in boxes anymore. It’s not the European theater and the Middle East theater.

We have to connect the dots. Those theaters are intertwined. What happens in one theater has impact on the other. This has shaped our military strategy. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
Rubio and Kallas clashed at the G7 over Russia.

Kallas confronted Rubio, asking when the U.S. would get tougher on Moscow.

Rubio snapped back, saying the U.S. is already doing everything it can and telling her to “go ahead” if Europe thinks it can do better - Axios. 1/ Image
Kallas reminded Rubio he had said a year earlier the U.S. would ramp up pressure if Russia blocked peace efforts.

“A year has passed and Russia hasn’t moved. When will your patience run out?” 2/
Rubio responded that the U.S. is engaging both sides diplomatically and continues to arm Ukraine.

He said Washington is trying to end the war through talks, while still providing intelligence support to Kyiv. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 27
Ukraine is close to a cash crunch for the war. Funding to cover spending only until June — 2 months runway.

If money doesn’t arrive, Kyiv may face a choice it tried to avoid: the central bank financing the budget, Bloomberg. 1/ Image
In practice, a “cash crunch” means salaries for troops and public workers, basic state services and the war’s essentials, like air defense and drones, start getting underfunded.

Zelenskyy’s warning is no money — the army feels it. 2/
A pile-up of blocked or delayed external cash.

Hungary is vetoing a €90B EU loan and tying it to Ukraine resuming transit of Russian oil through Druzhba.

Kyiv calls it blackmail. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 27
Cheap tech changed war. Weaker countries can now stop stronger ones. Ukraine proved it — drones slowed a much larger Russian army.

Michael Kimmage for NYT: Neither side won. Ukraine held on, but Russia’s economy endured — turning the war into a long, costly stalemate. 1/ Image
Ukraine held off a bigger force. Russia’s economy didn’t collapse. The result is a long, costly war with no clear winner.

This is a new model of war. High intensity. Long duration. No decisive outcome. The West gave Ukraine enough to survive — not enough to win. 2/
Sanctions didn’t break Russia. It kept selling oil and trading through China, India, and others. The economy weakened — but kept going. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 27
This is a Ukrainian veteran, Serhii Pomahaibo (46).

In August 2022, a gunshot shrapnel wound to the head near Kherson. Open brain trauma. Coma.

His wife was told he was dead. She didn't believe it. She searched hospitals until she found him in intensive care in Odesa. 1/ Image
When doctors let her in for one minute, she touched his hand and spoke to him. He opened his eyes. Tears rolled down his face.

A monitor showed brain activity that wasn't there before.

Serhii recognized her. That was the moment his fight for recovery began. 2/ Image
Serhii first went to war in 2014, when the ATO started. On the morning of February 24, 2022, he was already standing at his recruitment office in Vinnytsia region with his brothers in arms.

Group 1A disability. Left side of his body doesn't move. He uses a wheelchair. 3/ Image
Image
Read 6 tweets

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