Kelly Grieco Profile picture
Mar 28 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Look at what Iran has been hitting since Feb. 28: radar systems, SATCOM terminals, tankers, and now an AWACS. That's not random.

It's a systematic attack on the infrastructure that makes U.S. air power function. Iran's running an asymmetric counter-air campaign. A 🧵.
2/ Since Feb. 28, Iran has hit radar and SATCOM infrastructure at 7+ U.S. bases across Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, targeting the systems used to track incoming missiles and coordinate the entire air defense network.
nytimes.com/2026/03/03/wor…
3/ Yesterday, Iran hit Prince Sultan Air Base again, damaging an E-3 Sentry AWACS and multiple KC-135 tankers. Same base was hit March 13, when five KC-135s were damaged on the flight line.
4/ These aren't targets of opportunity. Tankers and AWACS are the logistics and command layer of the entire air war.
5/ The USAF only has 16 E-3s. Nearly 40% deployed to this theater. No replacement in production (E-7 A prototype in ~2028). Boeing delivered the last one in 1992.

The KC-135 fleet is Cold War-era, already under extreme strain, with parts sourced from boneyards.
6/ BL: Iran's going after the radars that detect threats, the tankers that keep jets flying, and the AWACS that direct the battle.

That's a counter-air campaign. Adapted to what Iran can actually do. And the damage is real.

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More from @ka_grieco

Apr 1
Gen. Caine announced Tuesday that after 30 days of strikes, B-52s are now flying overland missions over Iran. Is that a sign it's becoming harder to achieve air superiority against US adversaries? Yes. A 🧵.

war.gov/News/Transcrip…
2/ Desert Storm in 1991 provides a useful baseline. According to the Air Force History and Museums Program's Decisive Force, B-52s on night 1 made "shallow penetrations" into southern Iraq at less than 400 ft, hitting forward airfields. apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA43…
3/ Now, that wasn't deep Iraq. Still, B-52s were flying overland combat missions from the start.

That matters. Even limited penetrations suggest coalition had already degraded enough of Iraq’s air defenses to allow non-stealth aircraft into contested airspace, within hours.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
Iran damaged a U.S. E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. The USAF has 16 left, nearly 40% are already in theater, and there's no production line to replace them. This is one of the most strategically consequential losses of the war so far. A 🧵
2/ The E-3 is a flying command center that manages the entire air battle, tracking drones, cruise missiles, and aircraft across a 250-mile radius and directing intercepts in real time.
3/ Boeing delivered the last E-3 in 1992. Replacement E‑7 Wedgetail? Best-case prototype ~2028, first operational aircraft even later. No surge capacity. Every damaged AWACS is out until repaired or replaced. The U.S. is burning a tiny fleet years before its replacement exists.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 27
The Iran war put Gulf air defense stockpiles under pressure they weren't built to absorb alone. A thread on what the numbers show, and why the US role went far beyond supplementing regional defense. A 🧵
2/ I modeled Gulf state's pre-war Patriot, THAAD, and country-specific upper-tier interceptor stocks against confirmed ballistic missile attacks. Not every missile required an intercept; UAE MoD daily reporting showed roughly 7% fell in the sea. Used that rate throughout.
3/ Standard doctrine fires 2-3 interceptors per incoming ballistic missile. At a mid-range rate of 2.5 shots per missile, total Gulf demand was ~2,800 rounds against a combined BM-capable stock of ~2,400. A deficit of roughly 400.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 23
The "Iran is losing" narrative is tracking the wrong number. Yes, missile and drone launch rates are down 90%+.

But hit rate (or confirmed impacts per projectile fired) has been climbing steadily since Day 1.

A 🧵 on what the data actually shows.
2/ Raw impact counts drop sharply after Feb 28. But most of that drop is just fewer launches. That's at least partly the result of U.S./Israeli strikes destroying launchers and stockpiles.

The real question: Of the missiles/drones Iran does fire, how many are getting through?
3/ In the opening days of the war, Iran fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones.

Hit rate: below 5%

Defenses held. The barrage looked overwhelming. Most of it was stopped.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 10
Is Iran really losing its drone capacity? A closer look at how the US is measuring "degradation," and why the Shahed question deserves more scrutiny. A 🧵.
2/ At today's briefing, Hegseth cited "83% drone degradation" and "90% missile degradation." Impressive numbers. But how are they actually being measured? The answer should make you pause.
3/ Hegseth's own words reveal the logic: "the numbers staying that low is a demonstration of efficacy." Translation: Iran isn't launching much, so Iran must be degraded. But "not launching'"and "can't launch" are two very different things.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 8
Both sides are now running a risk strategy. The coming week could get worse. A short 🧵.
2/ Iran's logic: fire 1,500 drones at Gulf airports, oil ports, and US bases until the cost of continuing becomes greater than the cost of stopping. Make it too costly for everyone and wait for Gulf states to pressure Washington to end it.
3/ The US/Israel logic: bomb leadership, military, and now energy infrastructure until the costs of continuing become too high for elements within the regime. The message: comply or be destroyed.
Read 8 tweets

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