Kelly Grieco Profile picture
Mar 28 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Look at what Iran has been hitting since Feb. 28: radar systems, SATCOM terminals, tankers, and now an AWACS. That's not random.

It's a systematic attack on the infrastructure that makes U.S. air power function. Iran's running an asymmetric counter-air campaign. A 🧵.
2/ Since Feb. 28, Iran has hit radar and SATCOM infrastructure at 7+ U.S. bases across Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, targeting the systems used to track incoming missiles and coordinate the entire air defense network.
nytimes.com/2026/03/03/wor…
3/ Yesterday, Iran hit Prince Sultan Air Base again, damaging an E-3 Sentry AWACS and multiple KC-135 tankers. Same base was hit March 13, when five KC-135s were damaged on the flight line.
4/ These aren't targets of opportunity. Tankers and AWACS are the logistics and command layer of the entire air war.
5/ The USAF only has 16 E-3s. Nearly 40% deployed to this theater. No replacement in production (E-7 A prototype in ~2028). Boeing delivered the last one in 1992.

The KC-135 fleet is Cold War-era, already under extreme strain, with parts sourced from boneyards.
6/ BL: Iran's going after the radars that detect threats, the tankers that keep jets flying, and the AWACS that direct the battle.

That's a counter-air campaign. Adapted to what Iran can actually do. And the damage is real.

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More from @ka_grieco

Apr 8
A few observations on Caine's briefing today. The numbers are striking. The questions they raise are more interesting. A 🧵.
2/80% of Iran's air defenses destroyed, 1,500 targets struck. Impressive. What's in the remaining 20%? MANPADS? Mobile launchers repositioned further east? What parts of Iran remained contested? What altitudes The Pentagon didn't say.
3/ The fact that B-52s were still using JASSMs overland tells you something. JASSM is a standoff weapon. You use it when you don't want to fly into defended airspace. Where is that airspace?
Read 10 tweets
Apr 4
"Iran is deploying significant numbers of decoys," and US not sure how "many launchers it has destroyed were real." -NYT

Kosovo redux NATO claimed 120 tanks destroyed. Postwar count: 93. Serbs had fooled missiles with milk carton decoys/Yugo cars. A 🧵

nytimes.com/2026/04/03/us/…
2/ The Pentagon's own 2000 Report to Congress on Kosovo shows 93 tanks confirmed destroyed out of 181 claimed, with "Decoy Strikes" as a labeled category in the official chart. Cohen/Shelton, Fig. 17, p.86. archive.org/details/Report…Image
3/ A RAND post-war study found Serbs fooled missiles with milk carton decoys, Yugo cars with pipes for gun barrels, and water jugs heated in the sun to fake infrared signatures.

rand.org/pubs/monograph…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 3
Iranian forces shot down a U.S. F‑15 and damaged an A‑10, and combat search‑and‑rescue helicopters were also hit, resulting in injuries to their crews.

What this tells us about air superiority over Iran? A 🧵.
2/ Air superiority ≠ air supremacy.

Air supremacy = the ability to operate without "effective interference." Translation: The enemy poses no real air threat.

Most Americans are used to thinking this is normal; the U.S. largely had it over battlefields for 30 years.
3/ Air superiority, by contrast, just means you can operate without "prohibitive interference." Threats still exist. The terms are not interchangeable.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 1
Gen. Caine announced Tuesday that after 30 days of strikes, B-52s are now flying overland missions over Iran. Is that a sign it's becoming harder to achieve air superiority against US adversaries? Yes. A 🧵.

war.gov/News/Transcrip…
2/ Desert Storm in 1991 provides a useful baseline. According to the Air Force History and Museums Program's Decisive Force, B-52s on night 1 made "shallow penetrations" into southern Iraq at less than 400 ft, hitting forward airfields. apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA43…
3/ Now, that wasn't deep Iraq. Still, B-52s were flying overland combat missions from the start.

That matters. Even limited penetrations suggest coalition had already degraded enough of Iraq’s air defenses to allow non-stealth aircraft into contested airspace, within hours.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
Iran damaged a U.S. E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. The USAF has 16 left, nearly 40% are already in theater, and there's no production line to replace them. This is one of the most strategically consequential losses of the war so far. A 🧵
2/ The E-3 is a flying command center that manages the entire air battle, tracking drones, cruise missiles, and aircraft across a 250-mile radius and directing intercepts in real time.
3/ Boeing delivered the last E-3 in 1992. Replacement E‑7 Wedgetail? Best-case prototype ~2028, first operational aircraft even later. No surge capacity. Every damaged AWACS is out until repaired or replaced. The U.S. is burning a tiny fleet years before its replacement exists.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 27
The Iran war put Gulf air defense stockpiles under pressure they weren't built to absorb alone. A thread on what the numbers show, and why the US role went far beyond supplementing regional defense. A 🧵
2/ I modeled Gulf state's pre-war Patriot, THAAD, and country-specific upper-tier interceptor stocks against confirmed ballistic missile attacks. Not every missile required an intercept; UAE MoD daily reporting showed roughly 7% fell in the sea. Used that rate throughout.
3/ Standard doctrine fires 2-3 interceptors per incoming ballistic missile. At a mid-range rate of 2.5 shots per missile, total Gulf demand was ~2,800 rounds against a combined BM-capable stock of ~2,400. A deficit of roughly 400.
Read 10 tweets

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