1/ Recruitment for Russia's drone forces has slumped, despite an intensive recruitment campaign, because potential volunteers fear being forced to become stormtroopers. The situation is so severe that a Russian general has suggested moving drone forces out of the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Chadayev, the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre – a leading Russian drone development organisation – recounts a conversation that he had recently with a Russian lieutenant general about the army's failing UAV pilot recruitment programme:
3/ "Today I had a conversation with a lieutenant general, a longtime acquaintance of mine and, without exaggeration, a senior comrade and mentor. He gave me an idea I'd like to share with the channel.
4/ "It's no secret that recruitment for the newly created unmanned systems forces (promoting posters for them now adorn every town and village) is proceeding at, to put it mildly, a rather lacklustre pace.
5/ "This recruitment drive itself is the result of the creators of this new branch of the military being told that the idea of poaching the best operators from the “old” combat branches—again, to put it mildly—isn’t the brightest, and that it would be better…
6/ …to build their own ranks than to hunt for others’. But as for how and from whom to “build their own”—they still don’t know, and haven’t come up with anything better than turning to the domestic political establishment for help. Through the higher-ups, of course.
7/ "And they, understandably, tried to use all their standard tools to solve this problem, which is why governors, their deputies for domestic policy, the ruling party,…
8/ …regional administrative centres, even political consulting teams close to the government, and, of course, educational institutions are now involved.
9/ However, the results are not encouraging: the regions have already been “drained dry” by recruitment for contracts in the Special Military Operations zone, and today a rather specific contingent is heading there (again, to put it as delicately as possible), which,…
10/ …given its other characteristics, is the least suited to becoming the backbone of a new high-tech branch of the armed forces."
[Chadayev is likely to be referring to convicts and other 'social undesirables', like alcoholics, who are being rounded up and sent to Ukraine.]
11/ "So there you have it. This is the last idea I expected to hear from a man who has dedicated his entire life to service in the Armed Forces. And yet.
12/ "[The general said:] And who, exactly, said it was right to follow the same path taken a little earlier by our dear, unbrotherly Ukrainians? Does this imply that unmanned forces absolutely had to be established within the Ministry of Defence?
13/ "After all, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Russian Guard were once created from scratch; the Ministry of Internal Affairs has always existed; there is the Border Guard Service within the structure of the FSB; there is the Federal Penitentiary Service,…
14/ …and so on; all of these are separate security services with their own distinct tasks. They are not part of the Ministry of Defence, but they are part of what is called the "military organization of the state."
15/ "It is quite possible, he says, that in the case of unmanned systems, it would be more appropriate for us not to create a new branch of the armed forces within the Ministry of Defence, but a new organisation which, whilst being established as a security agency,…
16/ …could at the same time perform purely civilian tasks for the country – monitoring, logistics, communications, and so on.
17/ "And yet it would not be burdened by the vast array of procedural constraints that have weighed upon the Armed Forces since Soviet times – from the State Defence Order system to, at the very least, the State Armament Programme.
18/ "For which legislation could be drafted from scratch, in line with the demands of the times – for example, regarding the speed of developing and adopting new types of equipment and organisational forms for its use.
19/ "And he finished me off with this phrase: "Look at the IRGC, how they fight. But Iran has an army, it's still there."
20/ Chadayev asks why people don't want to sign up to join the unmanned systems forces, and concludes that it's because "the system is offering a standard military contract."
21/ "This leads people to the logical conclusion that no one who agrees will be immune from the so-called "transfer to the assault force," from essentially indefinite service (until the end of the war), or from other interesting aspects of service in the Russian Armed Forces.
22/ "And a completely different contingent is needed in large numbers for an unmanned army—commonly IT specialists, gamers, engineers, technicians, and "people with a soldering iron" in the broadest sense.
23/ "Essentially, we need to create not a "branch of the armed forces" in the traditional sense, but a militarized technology company dedicated to the development of advanced systems and their operational testing (including combat, of course).
24/ "Whose leadership speaks the same language with headquarters (where the generals are), and with manufacturers (where the managers are), and with developers (where the engineers are), and with civilian operators (where the logisticians are also engineers, but infrastructural…
25/ …ones). And such a structure, in addition to military tasks, could theoretically have tasks such as: protecting a critical facility (see Ust-Luga or the Crimean Bridge), quickly deploying supplies to an emergency zone (delivery of cargo by drones to hard-to-reach areas),…
26/ …ensuring communication via airborne repeaters in the required area (the same unmanned airships and balloons, for example, on the Northern Sea Route), blocking the channel of unmanned smuggling across the state border, organizing regular aerial monitoring of…
27/ …an extended facility (gas pipeline, railway line, power transmission line), ensuring the protection of the tanker or bulk carrier fleet with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles, sweeping the fairway (or, conversely, mining it),…
28/ … quickly creating an alternative logistics route with the help of ground drones (including engineering ones) in the event of a failure of the main highway, etc.
29/ "And finally, the most crucial task: "clearing the skies in a potential offensive zone"—SIGINT, EW, interceptors, lasers, MOGs, "middle strike" at launch points deep in the operational depths, etc., all within a single complex under a single command.
30/ "And then there's the logistics of this very offensive, right down to the most challenging last mile.
31/ "Clearly, such a structure could well include specialised units directly linked to major developers, effectively representing their "combatant" branches, which could provide the most qualified and timely feedback on the refinement and improvement of products, solutions,…
32/ …and the integration of technologies. Compared to today's implementation cycle, time savings could reach tens of percent, up to 80-90%." /end
1/ The world is very rapidly running out of refined fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, according to a new Goldman Sachs report, with only 45 days' worth of stockpiles of jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG remaining. Rationing, surcharges, and mass cancellations are forecast. ⬇️
2/ A research note authored by Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven has examined the impact of Middle East disruptions on refined product markets, finding that jet fuel and diesel are being hit far harder than crude oil.
3/ The analysts estimate that about 101 days' worth of usable global oil stocks remain in stockpiles. (While more oil than that is stockpiled, it can't all be used, as the JP Morgan report summarised below explains.)
1/ Russia's (allegedly) most incompetent general says he plans to stand for election in Tatarstan as a candidate for Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. Russian warbloggers are unimpressed at Colonel General Alexander Lapin's continued failure upward. ⬇️
2/ Lapin has repeatedly been dismissed from his positions since the start of the Ukraine war, and has attracted a great deal of criticism – likely justified – for his failures in command. Now retired, this unpopularity has not stopped him from declaring his candidacy:
3/ "At this stage in my life, I have a great desire to serve my multinational people, to defend the interests of my small homeland, to help people, to fight for truth, to fight for justice, to defend the interests of our republic and, as a whole, our great Motherland – Russia."
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️
2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
3/ The longer the blockade continues, the worse the damage becomes. Goldman predicts that in all but the best-case scenario, there will be permanent reductions ("scarring") in Gulf oil production of between 0.5 mb/d and 2.5 mb/d.
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear."
2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress
♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles.
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:
""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.
Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.