Ron Butler Profile picture
Mar 31 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
How Bad Is It That Canada's Economy Is Completely Dependent On Tax Policy?

Canada has gone down such a wrong road

Yesterday an announcement changing a Tax Policy was done to save the Residential Construction Industry

From a Tax Policy that killed the Construction Industry

2/
Which is fucking nuts!

We taxed the Housing Industry literally to DEATH: taxes, fees & levies were 30% of the price of a new home compared with 2% 30 years ago

Then the Government announces a TEMPORARY waiver of the taxes

1 Year for HST
3 Years for 50% off Development Fees

3/
And the Residential Construction Industry comes out of a Coma

But lets stop & realize just how incredibly BAD the whole thing really is

Tax Policy now rules Industry

In Manitoba Taxes were removed from Fast Food sold in Grocery Stores but remains on Restaurant Food

4/
What the hell sense does that make?

Does Manitoba hate Restaurants?

But this madness never stops

Endless tinkering with tax policy created an Industry of Tax Preparers

Accountants spend days learning new Business Tax Changes EVERY YEAR

Never any year without changes

5/
Look I understand we need taxes

Society needs services that Government's supply

But the size of Government & Taxation have grown MASSIVELY in the last 20 years

Same with Regulations

We need huge change to reduce Government & Taxes

We need it now before it's too late

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Jun 30
The Aftermath Of The Real Estate Insanity Of 2020 - 2022 Huge Mortgages Too Many Co-signers & Years Of Pain

Here's what we know: from the Fall of 2020 to March of 2022 many Real Estate Markets in BC & Ontario became crazy: FOMO, Work From Far-Off Home, you name it

2/
Near the end of this totally crazy run many so called Real Estate experts would calmly explain ongoing 5% to 8% increases in the price of homes would continue to be the norm

The few of us who said this was a stupid idea & the Bubble would burst were ridiculed

3/
Today all the Real Estate Pumpers have amnesia about 2021 but the sad aftermath for Home Buyers at that time keeps claiming victims

Start with Underwater Mortgages: when the home value falls below the amount of the mortgage

Let's assume this: most of 2021 Buyers are there

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 23
Time For Mark Carney To Pull A Doug Ford: Apoligise & REVERSE The Condo Bailout

It's not hard Prime Minister: Just get in front of a microphone & say:

"My Friends, the People have spoken & we are canceling the Condo Purchases, we will still achieve Affordable Housing"

2/
Premier Ford does this on a frequent basis

- Private Jet
- Greenbelt

It's easy: when Ford fucks up a decision he gets a call from Kory Teneycke who straightens him out & an apology ensues

Canada needs you to cancel the Condo Bailout

But you won't

You're not Doug Ford

3/
Unlike Premier Ford who understands his limitations the Prime Minister thinks he's the smartest guy in EVERY room

And he is a very smart guy

But many brilliant minds suffer from unmanageable arrogance

And that's what this is

The backlash against the Carney Condo Bailout

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 21
What's The WORST Thing About The Carney Condo Bailout? The Developers He's Bailing Out Made Fortunes for 20 Years

And everyone who keeps suggesting it's smart to buy instant Low Rent, Non-Market affordable homes instead of waiting for Build Canada Modular Yurts is stupid

2/
Because a thinking person would realize; Don't buy these units NOW & Government may not need to buy

Wait until the Developers drop the prices MUCH FURTHER

Or let the Developers go into Receivership & buy at the lowest price from the Receiver

It's critical to understand

3/
Carney talks about "Financing Mechanisms"

This Mechanism is called CMHC which can provide ultra low mortgage rates & 40 or 50 year amortization

He's Right

Lower Financing Costs

But they are NOT waiting until the prices bottom

Not waiting for Developers to go broke

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
Carney Government Loses It's Mind & Just Saves Condo Developers In BC: Unfuckinglievable

Unlike Carney's deal with Ontario which was a HST Sales Tax reduction scheme in BC they just went whole hog & BOUGHT New Construction Condos the Developers can't sell

Which is NUTS

2/
The Unsold Condos that your Tax Money is buying will be used for Social Housing

But how do all Canadian Tax Payers feel about that?

Did you want your taxes to go for Healthcare & Pensions or to bailout Condo Developers?

What's your opinion Canada

Doesn't matter

3/
The Government is bailing them out anyway

2200 Units worth of bailout

Imagine you're a taxpayer in Manitoba or Saskatchewan where Developers never turned Housing into a Financial Instrument Flipping Machine but YOUR TAXES will go to prop up the Rat Bastards who did do it

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 3
GTA House Prices Continue To Fall In May Even As Sales Of Homes Show A Slight Improvement

Actual unit sales of homes increased 6.3% in May Yr on Yr even though prices just keep grinding down 4.6% Yr on Yr

Sales are still well below the 10 year average

What's this mean?

2/
First of all be VERY careful of some lying Realtors claims that prices are UP compare with the January price point

Average price is effected by the MIX of homes sold

If more cheap condos were sold in January (traditionally worst sales month) compared with May (best month)

3/
Well, you get the point

This small improvement in the number of homes sold in the GTA was something I predicted months ago

Sales can't stay at 27 year lows forever

And I said prices would keep falling

What we see today is greater contast in Regions & property types

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 2
Insolvencies, Bankruptcies, Foreclosures & Power Of Sales Will Continue: They Won't Level Off For Awhile

We've seen constant, rapid rise in Insolvency Filings & homes being lost to lenders: these Financial Disasters will continue to accelerate into 2027

Here's why:

2/
All these elements of personal Financial Disaster connect to 2 things

- The Deterioration of the Canadian Economy
- The collapse of House Prices in 2 Provinces

The drop in house prices is a huge driver of personal financial calamity in Ontario & BC

Because of Leverage

2/
Unlike many investment types Residential Real Estate can be bought with 4X or 19X Borrowed Money

When property values reverse there is huge downside exposure

The vast majority of those who mortgaged just one property to live in are fine

They may be stuck with the house

3/
Read 7 tweets

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