Clément Molin Profile picture
Apr 4 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
100 km of kill zone, let's dive inside one of Ukraine's 🇺🇦 best defensive line

The Verkhnya Tersa line -with only 18 crossing over 100km- is one of the strongest and best prepared fortified line in Ukraine. Here is a detailed analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️ Image
First "New Donbas Line" style prepared in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk region, this line is covered north of Novomykolaivka by 3 other lines, while only one before Novomykolaivka.

South of it, this line is the first defensive line, only protected by older line and barbed wire.Image
Here is a video from few months ago of the central part of this line, the one protecting Novomykolaivka.

This area of around 25 km is the most ready on the 100 km of that particular line. North of Novomykolaivka, barbed wire has not been installed, the frontline is too far.
As you can see, there are 18 rows of barbed wire on 6 different lines, including 3 at the bottom of anti-tank ditches and one on top of draon teeths.

There are as well three anti-tank ditches and anti-vehicle obstacles, the dragon teeths.

This is an obtsacle line. Image
Here is a closer view of a road, which is let open to allow logistics.

If the line is a problem for Russia, it can quickly become one for Ukraine as well, making any movement more difficult. We could see Ukraine forced to breach its one lines... Image
The revolution of these new lines are that they even cover forest, ponds and rivers. No more holes are let behind, except the prepared ones.

In total, 18 roads for 100 km is one every 5.5 km, but if we take only the part of the line south of Novomykolaivka, it's one every 6.6 km Image
With a 90° rotation, we can see how this line is meant to secure a large countryside area. Just behind are lying more than 170 small hidden positions for soldiers and drone teams. Image
To understand the scale of the line, here is where it is in Ukraine. This line is not even the longest continous one. For example, a line going from Ternuvate to Sloviansk is 250 km long !

Ones under construction could be even longer. Image
Here is a closer view of the weaker part of the line. South of Novomykolaivka, Ukraine switches from 3 to 2 anti-tank ditches (they are doing this when they don't have the time to dig a full line).

You can see a new line under construction west and few barbed wires. Image
Russia will be forced to push into open terrain with a lot of barbed wire. All this area will be under ukrainien fire control, which will be safe from infiltrations and attacks behind their lines.

These fields will create high attrition for russians that will struggle to push. Image
This strategy is being prepared everywhere with 3 to 6 lines !

Overall, we can see a grid being formed as I already talked about it in the past. Image
Let's get back to more recent images. Everyday that passes is an occasion to better the defenses. Ukrainian counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e allowed the placement of 4 rows of barded wire which are roughly 100 meter large !

This was made to fill the holes in the lone ditch line. Image
Here too, we can see multiple rows of barbed wire being placed, both around a line that is under construction and also in the middle of fields. Image
To cover the roads, the ukrainians are now also digging a small corridor of around 100 meter along key roads, which will complicate the crossing of these roads. Image
In the north, Ukraine is now adopting 4 lines of barbed wire + 3 lines of ditches. This will be extremely deadly to cross. Image
Image
The last things : positions. The ukrainian forces are preparing small trenches that will be hidden in summer.

These are bunkers to hide infantry/drone teams... Other positions are everywhere as well. Image
Thanks for following this analysis on a particular sector of the defensive lines.

This line is interesting because it's finished, continuous and well built. If you want, I can do same for other lines, just tell me which ones ! Image
For the ones that are still saying that I'm helping Russia :
-I'm doing this in an analytical way, to understand where Russia will attack and Ukraine defend
-Ukrainian forces will need to know where are the safe roads, I can help them
-Russian forces are losing hundred of recon drones above these areas everyday, they know everything
-These are public images, accessible by everyone
-I'm doing same for Russia, but they are not digging any big line
-Russian bloggers are already doing their own maps, example : opor_2014

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
Image
Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 29
Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.

This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).

Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.
In total, I counted 784 trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones since early May.

🔹The per day average since May is 13
🔹May average is 7 (214 trucks)
🔹June average is 19 (570 trucks)
🔸Last 10 days average is 29 (295)

Read 18 tweets
Jun 18
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.
In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.

The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted. Image
Read 13 tweets

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