We're facing an energy crisis that is going to require radical solutions to solve. Many countries are ramping up coal-fired electricity generation in response. Is it time for the UK to go for Coal not Cold? A thread (1/n)
Looking first at UK coal reserves and resources. Euracoal has estimated we're sitting on 3,560 million tonnes of hard coal resources & 1,000Mt of lignite. Plus 277Mt of economically recoverable hard coal reserves. Plenty to go at (2/n)
So, what about the benefits of using coal? First, fuel diversification. War in Iran has again demonstrated the fragility of global supply chains, particularly LNG. Using our own coal would give welcome fuel diversification & energy security (3/n)
The case for coal gets stronger when looking at the UK's dwindling firm power capacity in the face of increasing demand. One answer might be new gas plants, but they have an 8-year lead time. Coal plants could be built much quicker to keep the lights on (4/n)
Of course, we should not overlook the fact that the UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. Using cheap coal to displace expensive renewables will bring down prices (5/n)
The objections to coal have been emissions: CO2, SOx, NOx & particulates. The US has removed the CO2 endangerment finding and China has shown that super-critical and ultra-super-critical coal plants can remove >99.9% of particulates, 99.7% of SOx & >90% of NOx (6/n)
With geo-political events revealing the fragility of supply chains, energy sovereignty has become of paramount importance. With the objections to coal dissipating, it is time for the UK to go for Coal not Cold (7/n)
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In a vote tantamount to treason, Parliament decided 297-108 to put Net Zero ideology above Britain's energy security. MPs rejected a Tory motion to scrap the Energy Profits Levy, lift the ban on new North Sea licences & approve the Rosebank & Jackdaw fields. A thread (1/15)
Not a single Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP, Reform or Restore Britain MP voted in favour. This decision came at a dangerous time – amid a the largest ever energy shock triggered by the war in Iran. (2/15)
Normally ~20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict started, traffic has plunged by over 95%. Brent crude and UK gas prices have risen sharply as a result. (3/15)
The CCC recently dropped a supplementary analysis of their 7th Carbon Budget, doubling down on past errors. They claim Net Zero costs less than the 2022 fossil fuel price spike & delivers a "net benefit" to society. Let's dismantle the ivory tower claptrap. A thread (1/13)
They also claim achieving Net Zero is “more cost-effective” than continued reliance on fossil fuels in all scenarios (2/13)
To support this, they’ve added “co-impacts” — cleaner air, warmer homes, active travel, “healthier diets” and carbon savings. Sounds impressive… until you examine the numbers and assumptions. (3/13)
New deep dive: "Octopus Smoke and Mirrors" exposes what's really going on behind the hype at Octopus, the UK's biggest energy supplier. Spoiler: a lot of valuation puffery, restated accounts and marketing flim-flam. A thread (1/10)
Recap: Last year I asked if we'd hit "Peak Pink Octopus" after news of spinning off Kraken (their tech platform) at £10bn, valuing the whole group at £15bn. It smelled like hype before a sale which was borne out by the actual valuation of ~£6.7bn. (2/10)
Now the latest FY2025 accounts for Octopus Energy Group Limited show it fell into losses again. Investors were not on hand to provide more funding. Instead they sought to monetise their investment by demerging Kraken (3/10)
🚨New article alert: "Net Zero is the Road to Serfdom" – UK’s rush to Net Zero is futile virtue signalling, hiking energy costs, and tanking the economy. Inspired by Hayek's warnings on central planning, we’re on the Road to Serfdom. A thread (1/11) #NetZero #UKEnergy
Labour MPs boast about "secure" renewables & wind power, while Starmer signs us up to stricter EU Net Zero rules. But govt control of energy is leading to energy austerity & poor economic performance. How far down the road to serfdom are we? (2/11)
Energy Prices: UK industrial electricity tops the developed world at 26.63p/kWh – 3.5x Canada's cheapest. Domestic prices 2.4x US levels. Gas fares better but still 6x Canada for industry. Nothing to brag about – it's crippling us! (3/11)
There's a lot going on today, but nevertheless it's important to understand what happened in the latest Ofgem price cap. Labour's fairground shell game of shuffling of subsidy costs cannot hide the increasing costs of renewables. A thread 🧵(1/n)
First up, Labour promised a £300 cut in bills at the election. They also claimed they would reduce bills by £150 in April, but the reality is a reduction of just £117. So both Labour's promises were lies (2/n)
We can see in the detail that wholesale gas and electricity prices fell in the latest price cap. This led to q cut of about £19 in direct fuel costs for electricity and £44 for gas (3/n)
The productivity of the electricity generation sector has halved since generation peaked in 2005. Renewables are dragging us over the energy cliff. A thread (1/n)
Over the past few weeks the government has released the results of the AR7 and AR7a renewables auctions and celebrated the creation of up to 17,000 jobs. But more jobs in electricity generation is not a goodie thing - akin to digging holes and filling them in again (2/n)
Looked at in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA), electricity generation productivity looks superficially good. Even though hours worked has soared, GVA/hour has gone up. But this is only tracking high energy prices (3/n)