Thread by @Black_BirdGroup

According to our data in March the net gains of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine were approximately 25km²

This is slightly more from than it was in February, a net negative, but the Russian offensive momentum has clearly dimimished compared to late 2025.

1/

In total the Russians captured approximately 100km² over the month of March. Mostly around Hulijaipole and in Northern Donetsk.

Despite mechanized attack attempts, the continuing Russian offensive attempts are so far struggling to make significant gains and create momentum.

2/

It should, however, be noted that information about the scope of Ukraine's February offensive north of Hulijaipole and the continued fighting in the area affect this data.

For example, the depth of some of the UA penetrations from February were only confirmed in early March.

3/

This is why, according to our data, the Russian net gains over the first half of the month were in fact negative.

Despite that, in terms of advances 2026 is so far more reminiscent of 2024 than 2025, with Russia clearly struggling to make gains over the winter and spring.

4/

The Russian goals show no large scale change, with a persistent political focus on Donetsk oblast.

Thus, it's almost certain that the Russian forces will continue offensive operations over the coming months wether or not they are able to regain offensive momentum.

5/5