1/ Russia's blocking of Telegram is having a devastating effect on the volunteer communities that support the Russian army in Ukraine. A Russian warblogger posts a despairing account of how the 'humanitarian aid' system has all but collapsed as a result. ⬇️
2/ The Russian army is hugely dependent on volunteer-provided 'humanitarian aid' – which in practice means anything from drones to generators to bulletproof vests – because so little is provided by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Alexander Zaborovsky writes:
3/ "I’m talking about Telegram blocks and specifically what has been drastically affected by them.
I’m referring to volunteer organisations and groups. 99% of them rely on Telegram for communication, including with combat units.
4/ "For over four years, there have been zero problems. A chain was established, stretching from a specific retiree, entrepreneur, or schoolteacher all the way to a unit on the front lines and even to a specific soldier (targeted packages).
5/ "Issues were resolved by announcing a collection drive in the groups, specifying what was needed and what required cash. Then donations were collected to a specific card, and the rest was delivered to specific addresses at specific times.
6/ "We clarified orders with the fighters, as well as photo and video specifications. For example: we coordinated details regarding electronic warfare (EW) for new frequencies (Myrnohrad, Kramatorsk—the Sloviansk direction), including spare parts for ATVs (can’t be resolved…
7/ …without video). The guys have Telegram working—provided they have internet, of course—but Max is still banned for them. (Although some battalions in Zaporizhzhia have made it mandatory.)
Now—how do we announce a rally in that same group, which averages 300–500 people?
8/ "Call everyone? That’s not realistic. Switch to MAX? But how do we get everyone over there when most of them are opposed to it? Set up a VPN... the older generation is far removed from these “gadgets”? There are guys who help, but still, they can’t be seen using a VPN.
9/ "As of today, VPNs are working, but they promise to shut down this route starting on the 15th [of April].
In short, the humanitarians have been dealt a serious blow.
10/ "Bitch, enrollment has already been dropping for five years!!! I’m 100% sure this is a deliberate sabotage and betrayal, you bastards.
11/ "The excuse from the top is that they don’t know that Telegram is the only channel of communication with the ‘mainland’ [Russia]—that’s for the mentally retarded with half a brain, just like the claim that saboteurs use it and drones fly with it; the fighters don’t give…
12/ …a fuck about it. (See a speech on 8 March by a lieutenant-colonel’s communications officer, who most likely never got within 50 km of the front line).
All this is being done deliberately by specific monsters with names and surnames, spitting on the law from on high...
13/ "I’m putting it very mildly, though apart from swearing and hatred for these ghouls at the top, there’s nothing left. And things aren’t getting any easier at the front. Since 8 March 2022, we’ve been preparing for our 46th mission.
14/ "Mariupol, Vuhledar, Mariinka, Avdiivka, Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Toretsk – these are all the places where we’ve been helping out on the ground.
And during that time there were no problems, even when police and military police checkpoints were set up.
15/ "And most likely something is brewing over there☝️, if they’ve taken such steps, especially given the less-than-ideal situation at the front and, indeed, at home.
How many billions have they allocated? 50, 80, 88???
That’s how things stand today."
16/ 'It's Time To Go Home' responds sarcastically:
"Many people can't access Telegram. This has led to a drop in views. Not everyone, especially the older generation, can use a proxy or VPN. All this has hurt war chests."
17/ "Roskomnadzor [the Russian telecoms regulator] says, "Thank you!"; the Ukrainians and liberals are happy."
18/ 'The Ghost of Novorossiya' laments:
"The People: To win the war we need to mobilise all forces and resources.
The State: [We're] immobilising communications and control." /end
1/ Vladimir Putin's reversion to 'February 2022 mode' is meeting with a stony response from Russian warbloggers. Many have refrained from commenting, but some are reacting with open and sharp criticism, calling him "completely divorced from reality". ⬇️
"The situation on the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is turning from difficult to catastrophic; neither Western aid nor forced mobilisation are helping them."
3/ "I call on the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers not to carry out the criminal orders of the Kyiv regime."
1/ With Russian logistics vehicles now regularly being blown up by Ukrainian drones far behind the front lines, Russian warbloggers are angrily demanding to know why the military leadership didn't anticipate this and put in place anti-drone protections. ⬇️
2/ As illustrated in this excellent post by @clement_molin, Ukraine is managing to extend its 'kill zone' into Russia and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, severely hindering Russian logistics across the region.
1/ While the Russian army has had some success in adapting to the conditions of the Ukraine war, this has often relied on bypassing the existing military bureaucracy. A Russian commentary highlights how a "self-defensive bureaucratic carcass" is hindering Russia's war effort. ⬇️
2/ The Russian war effort is heavily dependent on soldiers' and volunteers' personal funding and individual adaptation, as often seen in the 'Mad Max' style vehicles used on the battlefield. Soldiers have often complained of a lack of support and provision from the bureaucracy.
3/ 'Voice from Below' writes:
"Problems with UAVs, communications, reconnaissance, and mechanisation have been discussed since the mid-2010s."
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:
"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️
2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:
"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
3/ "A demographic alarm is sounding. The birth rate in Russian villages has hit rock bottom—a 35-year low. Rosstat recorded a fertility rate of 1.464. For reference, to avoid population decline, a fertility rate of at least 2 is needed.