Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. ⬇️

2/ Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee recently approved an eight-point "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan" that codifies the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth' into Iranian law.

3/ Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan writes in a new briefing paper for subscribers that under this new plan, "Iran proposes to charge 100 – 130 vessels per day $2 mm each, which would amount to $70 – $90 bn per year in revenues (!!)"

4/ He notes that even if it was only a one-off charge of $2 million each to let the 2,000 to 3,000 commercial vessels currently stranded in the Gulf depart, Iran would still raise $4- $6 billion.

5/ Even this lower tier would equal or exceed the annual revenues of all other major canals and waterways around the world. If the full toll plan went into effect it would exceed their combined revenues seven to nine times over.

6/ Given the scale of the war damage and the need for money to rebuild, it's hard to see Iran resisting this temptation. Bloomberg's Middle East Economist Dina Esfandiary says that "Iran probably did not expect its Hormuz strategy to be this successful…

7/ …the lesson Iran has learned from this war is that holding the global economy hostage is cheaper and easier than anticipated."

8/ It's virtually certain that Iran would spend much of its newfound income on rearming itself to deter future attacks. The war could ultimately result – if it is not repeated – in Iran becoming one of the richest and most powerful countries in the region. /end

Source:
"Eye on the Market". JP Morgan, April 6, 2026