1/ Not to be outdone by the US Artemis II mission, Russia is reported to be rushing out its own plan to carve out territories on the moon. However, as a Russian political commentator observes, Russia's space capabilities have degenerated to the point that this is mere fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Russia (and the Soviet Union before it, which envisaged the moon base shown above back in 1962) has long dreamed of establishing a presence on the moon. However, lack of funds and technological shortfalls have long prevented this.
3/ At a closed meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Sergei Chernyshev bluntly stated that the federal "Space Science" project is intended to "establish sovereign Russian territories on the lunar surface."
4/ Chernyshev, who is the scientific director of the N.E. Zhukovsky Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute, told the audience: "The lunar programme will help Russia maintain its place among the leading space powers actively exploring the Moon."
5/ "It will provide new knowledge and technologies for lunar exploration. And ultimately, it will help establish sovereign Russian territories on the lunar surface."
6/ He says that the programme will be carried out in two main stages: first, mastering the technologies necessary for landing and research on the lunar surface, to be followed by creating "elements of lunar bases" and using "liftoff technology" from landing sites.
7/ Chernyshev says that this will cost 4.4 trillion rubles ($56.1 billion) by 2036. However, Academician Anatoly Petrukovich has pointed out that the US is spending far more: "NASA's requested funding budget for the Moon next year is $8.5 billion."
8/ "This is practically our entire federal project for 11 years, even slightly more."
The Outer Space Treaty, signed in 1967 by the USSR, USA and UK, also prohibits Chernyshev's ambition of "national appropriation by claim of sovereignty" of the moon or other bodies.
9/ Chernyshev's optimistic scenario was also rather dented by his admission that the existing Russian lunar program has been delayed again. The launches of the Luna-28, Luna-29, and Luna-30 spacecraft are now planned for 2032–2036.
10/ As the St Petersburg newspaper Fontanka notes, "the program's timeline has already been pushed back. In August 2025, Lev Zeleny, scientific director of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences,…
11/ …announced that the launch of the Luna-27A station had been postponed from 2028 to 2029, and the Luna-27B mission was scheduled for 2030."
12/ "Even earlier, in 2023, then-Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov said that the Luna-26 spacecraft was expected to launch in 2027, Luna-27 in 2028, and Luna-28 was expected to launch in 2030 or later."
13/ 'Political Report' is scathing about the unreality of the Russian Academy of Sciences' plans:
14/ "Russia has neither competitive technologies capable of competing with American ones, nor any spare cash. The budget is already bursting at the seams from misallocations, sanctions pressure, and domestic economic problems."
15/ "Roscosmos, once a symbol of national greatness, today embodies systemic failure: key competencies have been lost, positions have been abandoned, and instead of real mass launches and orbital stations, there are only grandiose declarations.
16/ "All of this seems like a classic illustration of the old adage "it doesn't hurt to dream." Politically, such statements act as an internal boost: they maintain the image of a superpower for domestic audiences.
17/ "But on the global stage, they only highlight the depth of the gap. While Washington is investing real resources in viable projects and already envisions the Moon as a future base, Russian representatives are drawing borders on a map that doesn't yet exist.
18/ "Without money, technology and time, these plans risk remaining a beautiful but empty fantasy—yet another example of how the desire to appear strong replaces real strength. The space race continues, and Russia is falling further and further behind with each passing day." /end
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin reflects the views of many Russian commentators today in declaring Donald Trump's apparent climbdown over Iran to be a huge fiasco. He argues that "US authority will now be greatly undermined, and Trump's authority even more so." ⬇️
2/ News of the ceasefire in the Gulf has made its way very quickly to the special prison for jailed former security officials where Girkin has been held since January 2024. He also hasn't wasted any time in responding on his Telegram channel:
3/ "To say I'm shocked to the core—no, I'm not. In fact, deep down, I suspected the possibility of such a U-turn. The shouting and threats leading up to the behind-the-scenes agreement were too theatrical.
1/ Russia's current efforts to advance are getting nowhere due to endless swarms of Ukrainian drones, says the head of the Novorossiya Aid Coordination Centre. He suggest that instead, Russia should 'temporarily' bank its gains and go on the defensive. ⬇️
"Now it's important to take a very realistic assessment of the situation as of April 2026 and determine what we need to do in the near future to achieve Victory.
The most important factors in this situation are:"
3/ "▪️The fatigue of our troops, due to the lack of long-term rotations and many other reasons, is becoming a critical factor of strategic significance!!!
▪️The enemy achieved considerable success in destroying our air defences in February and March.
1/ Iran faces very serious problems even if the currently paused war ends with an agreement, warns Russian political scientist Nikolai Sevostyanov. While many Russians are celebrating the Iranian 'victory', Sevostyanov says the hardest part is still ahead. ⬇️
2/ Guest-writing on the 'Voenkor Kotenok' Telegram channel, Sevostyanov says:
3/ "The Iranians are the clear winners today.Trump raised the stakes as high as they could go and then backed down; the Islamic Republic has preserved its territorial integrity;…
1/ With a ceasefire now apparently in place in the Gulf, Iran has a golden opportunity to rearm – most likely with the aid of Russia, its main supplier of weapons since 2015. A Russian warblogger calls for missiles and drones to be rushed to Iran to prepare for a new war. ⬇️
2/ While Iran's own military production capabilities have likely been severely damaged, it can almost certainly turn to Russia, which is only about 500 km (310 miles) away across the Caspian Sea. The two have extensively traded weapons in both directions.
3/ From 2015-20, Russia supplied 98% of Iran's arms imports, and in 2020–24 it was Iran's sole official supplier. Over the last decade, Iran's imports of Russian arms have included air defence systems, missiles, aircraft, and sensors.
1/ The Russian army has switched to indigenously-produced Spirit-030 terminals to replace its blocked Starlink terminals. However, a Russian soldier and warblogger says it is far inferior, with poor latency and significant vulnerability to jamming. ⬇️
2/ Spirit-030 is a compact, portable Russian military satellite communication terminal designed as a tactical alternative to systems like Starlink. It provides secure satellite-based voice, data, and internet connectivity for frontline Russian forces.
3/ It features a small 30 cm diameter antenna, significantly smaller and more portable than earlier Russian terminals that used 90 cm dishes. This reduces its visual and electronic signature, making it harder to detect and target.
1/ Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. ⬇️
2/ Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee recently approved an eight-point "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan" that codifies the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth' into Iranian law.
3/ Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan writes in a new briefing paper for subscribers that under this new plan, "Iran proposes to charge 100 – 130 vessels per day $2 mm each, which would amount to $70 – $90 bn per year in revenues (!!)"