Kevin Graham Profile picture
Apr 8 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🚨New $PEY.to Presentation 🚨

Lots of 2025 Comps

Here are some of the highlights 🧵1/x
✅Production up 4%
✅FFO up 18%
✅Earnings up 46%
✅Debt down $171 million 13% Image
Cash Cost are still the lowest in the industry & they reduced Op Costs by 10% last year.

Which leads too... higher returns 🚀
2/x Image
PDP recycle ratios are not even close. After tax margins are a runaway - even when compared to the oil names.

Don't forget -> Profitability drives returns!

Even unhedged $PEY.to PDP recycle ratio was 2.9x - double their gas peers 😂
3/x Image
$PEY.to highlights the new Falher channel found in the middle of Sundance

This new trend is adding reserves very, very cheap at $0.65/mcf

These wells are generating a 169% rate of return & Payout in 1.3 yrs 🚀
4/x Image
This was a gift from Repsol - an acquired but uncompleted Bluesky well - Peyto completed in 2023

That initial well was choked but has already produced 5.5 bcf in 2.5 yrs & still producing 5.2mmcfd

Follow up wells at $0.69/mcf, 176% IRR & payout in under a year 🚀
5/x Image
Despite what the haters say, Peyto has over 1600 booked locations across the deep basin stack - enough for 20-25 years of inventory

No need for 75 years of inventory b/c that would waste cash today. The NPV at 10% of a CF in 75 years is precisely $0.00 (not a typo🤣)
6/x Image
🚨Very Important Slide - 2026 Goals🚨

2026 looks like a repeat of 2025. Goal is to cut controllable cash costs by 10% - keeping total costs flat on higher royalties ✅

Intelligent investors will note here that $Pey.to earnings are understated by about $110 million 😀
7/x Image
Like many predictions in the energy space, the recovery of AECO gas prices with LNG Canada startup has failed to materialize.

Good news is $PEY.to doesn't have AECO exposure in 2026 and marginal exposure in 2027.

And almost 500 mmcfd hedged in 2026 at $4.16/mcf 🔥
8/x Image

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More from @Kevin_AGraham

Dec 7, 2025
During this interview, Trevor graciously asked JP from $PEY.to a question about decline rates.

This is an important and telling thread for many reasons, including misinformation on X and the truth about resource plays.

Buckle up 🧵 1/x
Here's the question:

“Why is Peyto’s decline rates higher than your peers (if that’s the case)?

Trevor followed, “I don’t think it is”

And JP responds, “I don’t think it is either so I don’t know how to answer that”

In short JP said… What the hell is he talking about?
3/x Image
JP then explains how Peyto has a 10 yr PDP reserve life index and concludes, “so I wouldn’t consider our decline rates higher.”

(For ref. - $TOU 6 yrs & $ARX 4 yrs PDP RLI)

He ends by says Peyto is also transparent, the decline rate is in the corporate presentation. 😂
4/x Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 6, 2025
December $PEY.to Monthly Report was another GEM

Production was up from 133,000 boe/d last month hitting 141,000 boe/d in November and on the way to 145k boe/d in Dec.

But JP's commentary on the Bluesky was shocking, so let's dig in.

🧵1/x Image
When Peyto aquired Repsol they inherited a drilled but uncompleted Bluesky ERH.

"The well was so highly productive that it required a downhole chock to restrict its flow for 18 months due to facility constraints"

Sounds impressive right?
2/x Image
"After some careful planning, Peyto drilled two follow-up wells offsetting the initial well that have provided some initial impressive rates (Wells 2&3 in Figure 1)"

While all these wells look look impressive what comes next is the Peyto magic 😀
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23, 2025
What is the purpose of this post?

Is he deliberately trying to mislead people 🤥OR is he just ignorant? (Hard to say)

Let's explore how & why it's completely wrong.
🧵1/x Image
The first step of a proper analysis is to read the fine print and understand the assumptions.

-Only 3,972 are PUDs, PNP, or Probable BOOKED locations
-21,490 are UNBOOKED locations

UNBOOKED = "no certainty" that:
1) They will become a location &
2) If they are economic 👇
2/x Image
Let's take a look at $PEY.to

Yup, they have over 1600 BOOKED locations as per independent reserve evaluator GLJ.

There are no fictious locations in the Peyto deck.

So instead of posting an apples to apples comparison he posts an apples to oranges comparison. 3/x Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27, 2025
This is a great question... what would make me prefer $TOU.to over $PEY.to?

This is likely going to be a large thread so let's dig into some numbers. 🧵
1/x
First two things I don't care about:

1) What anyone on X says about what a "high quality" business is. The numbers tell me it is or isn't a high quality business.

2) What the share price is doing. I want to evaluate what the business is worth, then check the stock price.
2/x Image
Reserves Analysis

Below is each companies last share price and most recent reserve valuation. PDP is the net present value of current production less debt divided by shares outstanding. 1P includes proven reserves they plan on drilling in the next several years.

If we apply $TOU valuation to $PEY and vice versa we'll see the relative valuation gap.

If $PEY.to had $TOU.to's PDP valuation it would sell for $28.89.

Likewise buying Peyto today is like buying TOU for $43.91 using PDP reserves.

The same numbers are shown for 1P reserves.
3/xImage
Read 10 tweets
Feb 19, 2024
$Pey.to 2023 reserves 🧵

Peyto always answers these 4 key questions every year.

Lets dive in 1/x Image
Breakdown of Repsol

-Most companies lump things together to hide terrible results. Peyto took the opposite approach.

-Organic capital program $413m added proved producing reserves at $6.90/boe. That is insane & probably best in the industry 2/x
Breakdown of Repsol (2)

-Peyto ended up paying $699m. If they just let the production blow down they would recover this cash back at an 8% discounted rate ($715m).

-All future drilling & the gas plants were free.😮
3/x Image
Read 15 tweets
Feb 4, 2024
Is “wet gas” better than “dry gas”?

If it triggers you that I would challenge this widely accepted view, please hold your criticism to the end.

We will compare two of the best $PEY & $TOU

An important 🧵 1/x
First, yes it is true that $TOU has more “liquids” than $PEY.

In FY 2022, $TOU had 22% liquids compared to $PEY at 13%. 2/x Image
In 2022 (a year with very high oil prices) WTI averaged $94.90/boe. AECO averaged $5.10/GJ in 2022.

Because hedging is a one time benefit, all analysis will be UNHEDGED.

Below is the breakdown from 2022, the last full year we have. 3/x
Read 8 tweets

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