Production was up from 133,000 boe/d last month hitting 141,000 boe/d in November and on the way to 145k boe/d in Dec.
But JP's commentary on the Bluesky was shocking, so let's dig in.
🧵1/x
When Peyto aquired Repsol they inherited a drilled but uncompleted Bluesky ERH.
"The well was so highly productive that it required a downhole chock to restrict its flow for 18 months due to facility constraints"
Sounds impressive right? 2/x
"After some careful planning, Peyto drilled two follow-up wells offsetting the initial well that have provided some initial impressive rates (Wells 2&3 in Figure 1)"
While all these wells look look impressive what comes next is the Peyto magic 😀 3/x
1) What anyone on X says about what a "high quality" business is. The numbers tell me it is or isn't a high quality business.
2) What the share price is doing. I want to evaluate what the business is worth, then check the stock price. 2/x
Reserves Analysis
Below is each companies last share price and most recent reserve valuation. PDP is the net present value of current production less debt divided by shares outstanding. 1P includes proven reserves they plan on drilling in the next several years.
If we apply $TOU valuation to $PEY and vice versa we'll see the relative valuation gap.
If $PEY.to had $TOU.to's PDP valuation it would sell for $28.89.
Likewise buying Peyto today is like buying TOU for $43.91 using PDP reserves.