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Apr 9 37 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the links below for parts 1 and 2. In this part, he assesses the crucial role of communications systems in drone control. ⬇️ Image
4/ "3. Communications.

The superiors, of course, are stuck in the mid-1970s, in the pre-digital era; they still primarily understand communications as the ability to verbally command a subordinate without the enemy interfering or eavesdropping.
5/ "But, unfortunately, we haven't come very far from them in our conceptual description of communications in digital warfare, and we've failed to articulate or convey it.
6/ "I'll try to outline an approach to how this should have been done in the past. Now, my description won't be the final word, but first, we need to at least discuss and understand the penultimate point.
7/ "Communications must be understood as a multi-layered infrastructure, where at the most basic, grassroots level lies the physical ability to transmit a unit of information from point A to point B.
8/ "And at the very top is software that provides a unified data field between the people and robots involved in the war (drones, sensors, data processors, etc.); in this sense, a conventional messenger is also part of the communications infrastructure at the very top layer.
9/ "This is related to the question of Telegram, by the way.

And yet, the Russian Armed Forces currently lack any "master" of military communications who would be integrally responsible for upgrading all its levels.
10/ "The Main Communications Directorate ... is only authorised to oversee the two lower levels—physical communications and the channel system. The next five are simply beyond its current role and responsibility.
11/ "The question should be addressed not just about "connectivity," but rather about "connectivity," understood as the integrated throughput of a shared data space and the toolset for this capability.
12/ "Simply put, in a war in which the entire battlefield is transformed into a sensor field, saturated to the limit with a multitude of diverse automated devices, the factor of superiority becomes,…
13/ …firstly, the ability to exchange information between all these devices as quickly as possible, and secondly, the ability to apply the information received and processed from this field to combat missions.
14/ "The key is that this very communication field, ultimately, should be built not between people, but between automated devices—it is precisely this device that constitutes the basic "unit" of the network.
15/ "The fact that some of these devices are used by people to exchange information with each other—text, audio, graphics, and video streams—is, in a sense, secondary.
16/ "The key is that there is a vast array of diverse devices exchanging large volumes of information with each other 24/7 and capable of quickly combining into virtual clusters for a task within a single communication field, whether controlled by people, one or more AI agents,…
17/ …and so on. There are devices that mine big data, there are those that process it (and in several stages), there are those that use it to build a multilayered digital twin of the battlefield, there are those that develop or adjust action algorithms depending on the…
18/ …situation and enemy actions, and so on.

What does this approach provide? The ability to solve problems layer by layer. The first layer is the physical ability to transmit a signal from point to point.
19/ "The second is the creation of a channel or network of channels for regular signal exchange. The third layer is a set of data exchange protocols. The fourth is the infrastructure for storing/processing/cataloging both data and sources/streams.
20/ "The fifth is the software, for which all of the preceding is, in a sense, simply a communications transport and library system.
21/ "Specifically, it looks like this. An attack drone is flying. Its camera sees something. This real-time image is transmitted to a server somewhere, where it enters a stream library that already contains streams from stationary sensors—radar, acoustic, optical, even seismic.
22/ "All this data is processed to adjust the battlefield model in real time. This model is accessible at any time to all authorized users, whether humans or robots, and allows them to rely on it when modeling any subsequent actions.
23/ "Each action is quickly processed first in the digital model and then repeated in physical reality, and to human perception, this cycle is practically instantaneous.
24/ "The funniest thing is that even now, with the current level of technological development, everything is in place for this. Somebody like Yandex-Taxi, God forgive me, was already dabbling in this kind of simulation years ago.
25/ "Let say it starts raining in one of Moscow's districts—that means, firstly, they need to raise prices for that district by 20 percent, and secondly, they need to send as many available cars there as possible from other districts,…
26/ …because the number of people wanting to leave that district by taxi as quickly as possible, no matter the cost, will increase exponentially.
27/ "Moreover, the infrastructure they rely on to implement this scenario is standard 4G, smartphones for subscribers and drivers, GPS, weather averages from open sources, their own GIS, and a fare calculation algorithm based on years of observation. Nothing complicated.
28/ "Nothing prevents this entire suite of technologies and approaches from being applied in war, with the only caveat, perhaps, that communications and navigation systems must operate under conditions of active enemy countermeasures,…
29/ …attempting to suppress both by any means necessary. But even our current adversary, with its Bakhmut Telecom, demonstrates that the solution to this problem is anything but rocket science.
30/ "This is because there's infrastructure—what exists in the physical world "below" the battle space. And then there's the ultrastructure—what exists in the brains of people and AI agents "above" the battle space. And by and large, it all begins with the ultrastructure.
31/ "Yandex, for example, will tell you the truth: a system must first be conceived, then physically built, and only then can scenarios for its implementation be implemented for the main goal—in their case, freeing our wallets from so-called excess money.
32/ "In the event of war, this means the most organized, technologically advanced, and cost-effective destruction of the enemy.
33/ "But for this to happen, there must first be a sense of what lies "above" the infrastructure and "below" the ultrastructure—the actual _structure_, consisting of specifically organized and trained people.
34/ "The structure, that is, the "master" of all this, simply does not exist today, I repeat—there are only its individual, disparate elements.
35/ "Moreover, even these are inherited from the previous technological order, from the pre-digital, industrially organized war between humans and human-controlled mechanical machines.
36/ "In this form, they are simply unsuitable as a foundation for building both "ultra" upwards and "infra" downwards. Alas, an insufficient understanding of the whole picture has forced many of us to expend so much energy on a struggle that was unwinnable." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 2
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️ Image
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles. Image
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May 2
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:

""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.

Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.
Read 6 tweets
May 1
1/ Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they've been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones. This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they're Ukrainian. ⬇️
2/ A soldier writes to the 'Svarschiki' Telegram channel:

"Hello, I’m from the Kherson direction. Over us, the asshole fart-planes constantly fly by, their wings roam completely freely, and at night the Bony One [Death] does whatever the hell it wants…"
3/ "Three months ago we proposed to the command the idea of air defence against airplane-type drones and training the crews at the training ground.
Read 7 tweets
May 1
1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️ Image
2/ Zhivov calls 2026 "A Window of Opportunity, or Why Ukraine's Allies Need to Be Attacked Now." He envisages Russia carrying out Europe-wide missile attacks against factories and bases which are supporting Ukraine's war effort, while relying on Trump not helping Europe:
3/ "King Charles of Great Britain's visit to the United States and his address to Congress demonstrated that Trump has lost influence over the Ukrainian peace process since November. With the Republicans' defeat [in November], Trump will finally "wash his hands of the situation."
Read 21 tweets
May 1
1/ Russians are increasingly worried that they face a repeat of one of the greatest traumas of their recent history: the loss of their savings, as last happened in the economic crisis of the 1990s. Russian commentators are aghast at the prospect. ⬇️ Image
2/ Central bank officials and politicians in Russia have recently been floating the possibility that, due to Russia's worsening budget deficit caused by sanctions and the war in Ukraine, the government may confiscate deposits above a certain amount and issue credit notes instead.
3/ 'Troika' is one of many commentators on Telegram who is reacting strongly to this prospect:

"The process of withdrawing 67 trillion rubles in deposits in exchange for toilet paper has begun."
Read 30 tweets
Apr 30
1/ The Russian government's lackdaisical response to Ukrainian drone strikes on Tuapse, which have caused an environmental disaster, has caused growing anger among Russian commentators. They foresee "the beginning of a major logistical collapse." ⬇️
2/ A scathing commentary on the 'Federation Towers' Telegram channel ('Towers' is a euphemism for the Kremlin's factions) blames the increasingly disastrous situation in Tuapse and elsewhere on official buck-passing, corruption, cover-ups, and a reluctance to take responsibility:
3/ "Burning oil on the streets of Tuapse and ten thousand square meters of fuel oil in the Black Sea are more than just an environmental disaster. They are the direct cost of bureaucratic negligence and the desire to profit from the budget.
Read 15 tweets

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