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Apr 9 37 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the links below for parts 1 and 2. In this part, he assesses the crucial role of communications systems in drone control. ⬇️ Image
4/ "3. Communications.

The superiors, of course, are stuck in the mid-1970s, in the pre-digital era; they still primarily understand communications as the ability to verbally command a subordinate without the enemy interfering or eavesdropping.
5/ "But, unfortunately, we haven't come very far from them in our conceptual description of communications in digital warfare, and we've failed to articulate or convey it.
6/ "I'll try to outline an approach to how this should have been done in the past. Now, my description won't be the final word, but first, we need to at least discuss and understand the penultimate point.
7/ "Communications must be understood as a multi-layered infrastructure, where at the most basic, grassroots level lies the physical ability to transmit a unit of information from point A to point B.
8/ "And at the very top is software that provides a unified data field between the people and robots involved in the war (drones, sensors, data processors, etc.); in this sense, a conventional messenger is also part of the communications infrastructure at the very top layer.
9/ "This is related to the question of Telegram, by the way.

And yet, the Russian Armed Forces currently lack any "master" of military communications who would be integrally responsible for upgrading all its levels.
10/ "The Main Communications Directorate ... is only authorised to oversee the two lower levels—physical communications and the channel system. The next five are simply beyond its current role and responsibility.
11/ "The question should be addressed not just about "connectivity," but rather about "connectivity," understood as the integrated throughput of a shared data space and the toolset for this capability.
12/ "Simply put, in a war in which the entire battlefield is transformed into a sensor field, saturated to the limit with a multitude of diverse automated devices, the factor of superiority becomes,…
13/ …firstly, the ability to exchange information between all these devices as quickly as possible, and secondly, the ability to apply the information received and processed from this field to combat missions.
14/ "The key is that this very communication field, ultimately, should be built not between people, but between automated devices—it is precisely this device that constitutes the basic "unit" of the network.
15/ "The fact that some of these devices are used by people to exchange information with each other—text, audio, graphics, and video streams—is, in a sense, secondary.
16/ "The key is that there is a vast array of diverse devices exchanging large volumes of information with each other 24/7 and capable of quickly combining into virtual clusters for a task within a single communication field, whether controlled by people, one or more AI agents,…
17/ …and so on. There are devices that mine big data, there are those that process it (and in several stages), there are those that use it to build a multilayered digital twin of the battlefield, there are those that develop or adjust action algorithms depending on the…
18/ …situation and enemy actions, and so on.

What does this approach provide? The ability to solve problems layer by layer. The first layer is the physical ability to transmit a signal from point to point.
19/ "The second is the creation of a channel or network of channels for regular signal exchange. The third layer is a set of data exchange protocols. The fourth is the infrastructure for storing/processing/cataloging both data and sources/streams.
20/ "The fifth is the software, for which all of the preceding is, in a sense, simply a communications transport and library system.
21/ "Specifically, it looks like this. An attack drone is flying. Its camera sees something. This real-time image is transmitted to a server somewhere, where it enters a stream library that already contains streams from stationary sensors—radar, acoustic, optical, even seismic.
22/ "All this data is processed to adjust the battlefield model in real time. This model is accessible at any time to all authorized users, whether humans or robots, and allows them to rely on it when modeling any subsequent actions.
23/ "Each action is quickly processed first in the digital model and then repeated in physical reality, and to human perception, this cycle is practically instantaneous.
24/ "The funniest thing is that even now, with the current level of technological development, everything is in place for this. Somebody like Yandex-Taxi, God forgive me, was already dabbling in this kind of simulation years ago.
25/ "Let say it starts raining in one of Moscow's districts—that means, firstly, they need to raise prices for that district by 20 percent, and secondly, they need to send as many available cars there as possible from other districts,…
26/ …because the number of people wanting to leave that district by taxi as quickly as possible, no matter the cost, will increase exponentially.
27/ "Moreover, the infrastructure they rely on to implement this scenario is standard 4G, smartphones for subscribers and drivers, GPS, weather averages from open sources, their own GIS, and a fare calculation algorithm based on years of observation. Nothing complicated.
28/ "Nothing prevents this entire suite of technologies and approaches from being applied in war, with the only caveat, perhaps, that communications and navigation systems must operate under conditions of active enemy countermeasures,…
29/ …attempting to suppress both by any means necessary. But even our current adversary, with its Bakhmut Telecom, demonstrates that the solution to this problem is anything but rocket science.
30/ "This is because there's infrastructure—what exists in the physical world "below" the battle space. And then there's the ultrastructure—what exists in the brains of people and AI agents "above" the battle space. And by and large, it all begins with the ultrastructure.
31/ "Yandex, for example, will tell you the truth: a system must first be conceived, then physically built, and only then can scenarios for its implementation be implemented for the main goal—in their case, freeing our wallets from so-called excess money.
32/ "In the event of war, this means the most organized, technologically advanced, and cost-effective destruction of the enemy.
33/ "But for this to happen, there must first be a sense of what lies "above" the infrastructure and "below" the ultrastructure—the actual _structure_, consisting of specifically organized and trained people.
34/ "The structure, that is, the "master" of all this, simply does not exist today, I repeat—there are only its individual, disparate elements.
35/ "Moreover, even these are inherited from the previous technological order, from the pre-digital, industrially organized war between humans and human-controlled mechanical machines.
36/ "In this form, they are simply unsuitable as a foundation for building both "ultra" upwards and "infra" downwards. Alas, an insufficient understanding of the whole picture has forced many of us to expend so much energy on a struggle that was unwinnable." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Apr 11
1/ A very interesting interview with Donbas separatist Pavel Gubarev is being interpreted by Russian warbloggers as a move by 'angry patriots' to lay the ground for a coup in Russia. They see a potential replay of the 1918 overthrow of Tsar Nicholas II. ⬇️
2/ The interview is notable not only for its revealing admissions about Russia's seizure of the Donbas in 2014, which Russian nationalists refer to as 'the Russian Spring', but for its choice of venue.
3/ Yuri Dud, to whom Gubarev spoke, is a German-born Russian journalist and YouTuber who now lives in exile. He has been labelled a 'foreign agent' by the Russian government and was sentenced in absentia to 23 months' imprisonment in November 2025.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 10
1/ Russia is proclaiming success in its ongoing recruitment drive, but this is being achieved by scraping the bottom of the barrel. A newly-published video shows the abysmal quality of the current recruits: old, disabled, and homeless men, with only two fingers between them. ⬇️
2/ The video shows three newly recruited men in Omsk. Despite having severe physical disabilities, all three are recognised as medically fit for military service at a selection point called Sirius. They have signed a contract and will be sent to Ukraine.
3/ It was filmed at an office of the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (military unit 95383) of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division (military unit 77860) of the 3rd Army Corps (military unit 41794).
Read 13 tweets
Apr 9
1/ The Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has published a map showing the 'new' shipping lanes for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, what it shows greatly increases the risk of future shipping disasters in the Persian Gulf. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Strait of Hormuz is only 33–39 km (20-24 mi) wide at its narrowest point, but its usable width is far narrower. The shipping lanes in the middle of the Strait pass through a 9 km-wide (5 mi) stretch of the deepest water, comprising two 3 km wide lanes with a 3 km gap. Image
3/ Iran is currently diverting ships around Larak island to the north of the existing shipping lanes, through the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth'. However, this has a major problem: the water between Larak and Qeshm is only 20 m deep, far too shallow for fully loaded oil tankers. Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 9
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the link below for part 1. In this part, he assesses problems with unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) which have become acute since Russia lost access to Starlink. ⬇️ Image
3/ "2. What's happening with the ground drones?

There's an interesting picture here: the enemy is increasing their use, while we're decreasing it. And it's not because we're physically short of them—they're sitting in warehouses by the thousands.
Read 22 tweets
Apr 9
1/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev has posted a lengthy and detailed description of what is going wrong for Russia in the drone warfare arms race, where he admits that it has fallen badly behind Ukraine, with lethal consequences for the Russian army. ⬇️ Image
2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development organisation. He is a key organiser in the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', a loose coalition of voluntary groups which provides the army with equipment.
3/ He asks:

"1. How exactly has Ukraine regained its lost leadership in the "small sky" over the past six months?
Read 17 tweets
Apr 8
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin reflects the views of many Russian commentators today in declaring Donald Trump's apparent climbdown over Iran to be a huge fiasco. He argues that "US authority will now be greatly undermined, and Trump's authority even more so." ⬇️ Image
2/ News of the ceasefire in the Gulf has made its way very quickly to the special prison for jailed former security officials where Girkin has been held since January 2024. He also hasn't wasted any time in responding on his Telegram channel:
3/ "To say I'm shocked to the core—no, I'm not. In fact, deep down, I suspected the possibility of such a U-turn. The shouting and threats leading up to the behind-the-scenes agreement were too theatrical.
Read 15 tweets

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