Thread by @NicoleGrajewski

In my latest for @nytopinion, I examine what the Iran war reveals about Moscow's ties to Tehran and why Iran remains a valuable, if increasingly vulnerable, partner for Russia.

Moscow has certainly appeared to be a beneficiary of the United States’ miring itself in a war in Iran. Oil prices are up, some sanctions have been waived, and Western attention is fractured. Moscow's coffers are refilling while Ukraine peace talks sit on pause.

Iran has held on for weeks, imposing real costs on the global economy, before a limited ceasefire was announced. For Russia, that endurance matters. But even if Tehran claims victory, it emerges battered, poorer, and more isolated.

If the ceasefire collapses, continued strikes, sanctions, and internal strain could push Iran toward fragmentation. The war that has been Russia's windfall becomes its worst nightmare, almost overnight.

For Moscow, Iran has long been a partner that imposes costs on the U.S. without requiring direct Russian exposure. In that sense, it is close to irreplaceable.

Iran is not Assad. Putin let Syria fall when saving it cost more than it was worth. Iran is a peer, not a client. It has its own revolutionary ideology, its own reach, and a proven ability to choke the global economy. It creates pressure on America in ways that benefit Russia.

As I argue in the piece and my book, Russia-Iran partnership is also far denser than it looks - spanning shared military technology, surveillance tools, repression tactics, and sanctions-evasion networks. If the Islamic Republic falls, all of it unravels.
hurstpublishers.com/book/russia-an…

Moscow has never pledged to fight the U.S. for Iran, or vice versa. The aim is mutual endurance, ensuring each can fight longer alone. Both regimes treat dissent as a threat, making repression tools as valuable to share as weapons systems.

Russia is unlikely to intervene overtly without risking escalation with the U.S. Instead, it leans on quieter support aligned with its playbook: ISR and targeting assistance, satellite data, EW support, navigation inputs, and technical exchange on drones and missiles.

Russia can also shape Iran’s reconstitution: helping restore missile production, supplying components, offering technical expertise, and potentially sensitive nuclear-related knowledge transfer short of overt proliferation.

Finally, what binds Moscow and Tehran is a shared grievance toward the U.S.-led order and a belief it is designed to constrain them. Their partnership rests on endurance, adaptation, and mutual enablement, a logic that will outlast this war.

Gift article nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opi…