Thread by @Mylovanov

World wars start the same way: leaders overestimate themselves, underestimate consequences, and launch wars without a clear plan — like Putin.

To stop this, leaders must talk, cooperate, and not fear looking weak. Even small wars can spiral into global ones — The Economist. 1/

In 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II started a war without a plan and misjudged the outcome. It ended in world war.

Putin expected 2–3 days — got years of war and mass losses. Trump expected an easy Iran war — got a global economic shock. 2/

Before WWI, German nationalism mixed state worship and military cult.

Today, Russia and China act the same. Great powers again see each other as threats — US and China now mirror Britain and Germany. 3/

Wars come down to people — and their personal histories.

Putin wrote essays during covid to justify control over Ukraine. Xi frames policy around China’s “century of humiliation.” 4/

Trump once said he could run nuclear talks after “an hour and a half” of learning missiles.

These beliefs shape decisions at the highest level. 5/

Technology cuts decision time.

In 1914, railways sped mobilization. Today, nuclear weapons and AI can shrink decisions from weeks to minutes. 6/

Another risk: personal rule.

Putin, Xi, Trump, Kim build cults around themselves. They fear looking weak more than they fear war. Corruption adds pressure toward conflict. 7/

Leaders must talk and meet.

But even basic communication fails — China ignores Pentagon calls. That increases risk of miscalculation. 8/

Leaders must deter, buy time, and avoid escalation.

But Chinese planners study Ukraine not to avoid war — but to win the next one.

As in 1914, small wars can quickly become global. 9X

Source: economist.com/culture/2026/0…

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