Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ The fall of Victor Orbán is being mourned as a catastrophe by Russian warbloggers and commentators. They lament the loss of a man whom they openly call "a 'Trojan horse' in the EU" and blame the Russian government's ineffective attempts to interfere with the election. ⬇️

2/ Alex Kartavykh laments:

"The Reich has almost crystallised. There will be no one left to gum up the Euro-bureaucrats with blabber and prevent them from sending out budget aid. And, in general, the last bastion of common sense has fallen."

3/ "The only remaining neutrals in the West are the Serbs, and that's it. And then there's Lukashenko and the potato boys [Belarusians] as allies. Are we sure we have a plan?"

Alexey Zhivov calls for Russia to punish Hungary for voting out Orbán:

4/ "Magyar has already admitted that he "will have to" negotiate with Moscow, since Hungary depends on Russian energy resources. However, after the openly Russophobic cries of the Hungarian opposition, we should think three times before giving Budapest discounts next time.

5/ Finally, we have to admit that the tactical alliance between Russia and the US around Orbán has failed, and we should draw conclusions from this."

'Veterans' Notes' admits that Orbán's own failings were central to his defeat, and blames the EU's influence:

6/ "To be honest in all assessments, the situation in Hungary is this: Orbán is to blame for his defeat. He, and he alone, and no one else. He failed to achieve overwhelming support from his own population.

7/ "If you can't achieve overwhelming results and popular support, then you must have a repressive apparatus to fight the opposition, or a state machine capable of fabricating the desired election numbers.

This is the reality and the law of politics.

8/ "Why do I say that Orbán's defeat is a defeat for our diplomacy, despite the fact that he himself is to blame? Because European diplomacy is demonstrating its ability to influence elections within any EU country.

9/ "Step by step, European diplomats are depriving us of any leverage over European politics, including in countries that are not yet EU members but are within the EU's orbit of interests.

10/ "In other words, they are bluntly and systematically squeezing us out of their sphere of interest. And rest assured: once they squeeze us out of their sphere of influence, they will begin to encroach on ours.

11/ "More precisely, they've already encroached head-on into our zone of direct interest, Ukraine, for example. And they'll go further if no one stops them."

12/ Several commentators blame Russia's heavy-handed and ineffective attempts to interfere in the Hungarian general election. 'Comrade Artyom' calls Orbán "Yanukovych 3.0", referring to the pro-Russian president of Ukraine who fled after 2014's Revolution of Dignity:

13/ "Orbán's defeat once again demonstrated the intellectual impoverishment of Russia's ruling class. Instead of creating pro-Russian elites in various countries, they jump on the same rake and try to build interactions with existing elites.

14/ "And this strategy always fails miserably.

And to create a pro-Russian elite in other countries, in addition to financial resources, you need intellectuals. And Russia's power model keeps people with above-average intelligence within cannon shot of decision-making.

15/ "We can see the results of this policy almost daily, documenting Russia's displacement from all the territories it previously controlled."

Political scientist and sociologist Vladimir Lepekhin blames corrupt and incompetent "Kremlin-aligned idiots" for Orbán's defeat:

16/ "'Political strategists' from the Russian presidential administration have arrived from Russia to help Orbán—idiots who have mastered the art of embezzling public funds but who are ruining not only every foreign election but almost everything they touch.

17/ "They failed Ukraine and the Baltics, failed Belarus in 2020 (so [Lukashenko] was forced to take up arms), failed Moldova, failed Armenia, then failed Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Syria, and Venezuela.

18/ "Currently, they are failing Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Cuba, Iran, and a few other territories that I shouldn't name in the current situation.

9/ "I could go into detail about how this sort of thing, traditionally and 'unexpectedly' for the Kremlin, happens and repeats itself time and time again, and why the clever Kremlin-aligned blockheads 'manage' to screw up everything, or almost everything, wherever they appear.

20/ "But then I'd have to name names, including some deputy heads of the Presidential Administration and other high-ranking officials in the Presidential Administration and the Russian Foreign Ministry, who surrounded themselves with lackeys and pseudo-patriots…

21/ …from the 'fifth column' list instead of professionals and genuine patriots, creating an atmosphere of permanent imitation, total indifference, corruption, and 'leaks' of Russia's national interests within the Russian government apparatus.

22/ "I could go into detail, but I won't, because it's fraught with danger today.

Viktor Orbán's defeat has greatly strengthened the positions of Ukraine, Israel, the Russophobic segment of the European Union, the United States, and NATO.

23/ "Unfortunately, as has been the case in Russia for decades now, yet another foreign policy failure will teach Russian officials nothing, and ultimately, not a single Kremlin-aligned idiot will be held accountable for the Russian Federation's failure."

24/ Leading drone developer Alexey Chadayev says that Russia's intervention came much too late to make any difference:

25/ "The outcome couldn't have been different if you joined the campaign not a year or six months before, but a few weeks before election day, when, by and large, nothing can be done, as the trends have already been established, and trying to reverse them with…

26/ … "special operations" is a lost cause. And yes, Russian political strategists have been a frankly declining industry in recent years, since our results have long been determined not so much by the public as by the backroom part of elections."

27/ He notes that the outcome is as much a defeat for the US as it is for Russia, caused by general European disillusionment with US policy:

28/ "Just about everyone has weighed in on the support for Vance and Trump and how toxic it is under the current circumstances, but one key point has been overlooked: the U.S.—not just the Trump supporters, but the Democrats as well—currently has…

29/ …absolutely no good proposal for Europe. Buy our energy resources at high prices, pay us for weapons for Ukraine, participate in our projects—well, it’s a mediocre offer.

30/ "I mean, even if (when) the Republicans lose, a hypothetical Kamala comes along and makes an offer to the EU to roll back everything—it doesn’t sound very inspiring from their perspective."

31/ Sergey Kolyashnikov looks for an enemy within to blame, and finds it in Hungary's Roma minority, whom he claims have been mobilised by Britain and the EU – which he warns could be a template for a similar effort to defeat Vladimir Putin:

32/ "Hungary is finished...

It was already clear yesterday that the EU had mobilized the Roma diaspora. This is in addition to the youth, the opposition, and so on. How many Roma are there in Hungary? Officially, 3%. But in reality, it's up to 10-15%.

33/ "Because the Roma don't associate themselves with the state, don't assimilate, and engage in crime and illegal employment. Sounds familiar again, right?

34/ "Orban really lost these elections in Hungary, on the ground. A new aspect of 'soft power' came into play: the mobilisation of ethnic diasporas. Orban's party realised what was happening and accused the opposition of buying Roma votes—but it was too late.

35/ "What should Russia do now? First of all, draw conclusions. Surely we understand what choice the Azerbaijani, Tajik, Uzbek, and other diasporas, with whom the UK and the EU have long and closely worked, will make at the right moment?" /end

[To be continued]

Sources:
🔹 t.me/AlexCarrier/15…
🔹 t.me/zhivoff/26027
🔹 t.me/t_artm/7496
🔹 t.me/vladimirlepehi…
🔹 t.me/notes_veterans…
🔹 t.me/chadayevru/4694
🔹 t.me/SergeyKolyasni…

Part 2 is here:

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2043645378961068235