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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Browder: Putin got a double benefit from the Iran war. Fear of sanctions vanished, so the discount on Russian oil disappeared, and the oil price jumped.

Russia now sells its oil at the same price as everyone else, into a much stronger market. 1/

Browder: But it is not the bonanza Putin imagined. Ukraine has consistently attacked Russian refineries, storage sites, and oil ports, and Russia cannot protect them.

Much of its air defense goes to Moscow and Putin’s palaces, not the oil infrastructure. 2/

Browder: Trump’s sanctions waiver does not add supply or lower prices.

It just lets Russia sell at the international price instead of at a discount. That is a transfer of wealth from Indians and Chinese to Russians — another month-long gift to Putin. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 22

Ukraine is proposing naming a slice of the Donbas “Donnyland” to pull Trump toward Kyiv’s position in peace talks, — NYT.

Ukraine is testing a simple lever — attach Trump’s name to a postwar arrangement, then make abandoning it politically costly in Washington. 1/

The territory is a front line.

A depopulated strip about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide, with one working coal mine and businesses that serve soldiers. Netting covers the main highway into the area to protect against exploding drones. 2/

The talks are stuck on who controls that land after a ceasefire.

Russia wants full legal control of the Donbas. Ukraine wants a structure that blocks a future invasion and does not legitimize Russian annexation. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal.

None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/

Trump told Bloomberg Iran agreed to an "unlimited" suspension of enrichment.

He told CBS Tehran "agreed to everything" and would hand over its uranium. He told Axios a deal would come "in the next day or two." Sources said Iran had not agreed to those terms. 2/

Source familiar with the talks, to CNN: "The Iranians didn't appreciate POTUS negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn't yet agreed to."

Trump officials privately told CNN the commentary damaged the talks. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

China gained more from the Iran war than anyone — without firing a single shot.

Diplomatic leverage, military intelligence, energy dominance, rare earth dependency — Axios. 1/

The US committed roughly 80% of its JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile inventory to the Iran fight, pulling stockpiles from the Pacific.

The conflict significantly depleted US supplies of Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, THAAD interceptors and drones. 2/

Beijing got a free masterclass in modern American warfighting: how the US uses AI to target, how it rotates carrier groups, how cheap Iranian drones drain its most expensive interceptors.

For Chinese war planners gaming out a Taiwan invasion, it was better than any simulation. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Ukraine rep. to UN Melnyk: Russia murders civilians. They strike ambulances, emergency personnel and firefighters. Between March 30th-April 13th, Russia launched over 3600 strike UAVs, 1350 guided bombs and more than 40 missiles against Ukraine, killing at least 70 civilians. 1/

Melnyk: Russia does not control more than 20% of the Donetsk region territory. This is pure blackmail. Russia demands Ukraine to abandon one of the most heavily fortified and logistically developed defensive lines. 2/

Melnyk: We must not forget that beyond these fortifications there are cities and villages where Ukrainians live. How can we leave hundreds of thousands of these people?

To seize the territory, Putin would have to send at least another 1.5M soldiers. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Zelenskyy: Putin still has major economic problems, $100B deficit.

A short Middle East war won’t cover Russia’s huge deficit — maybe 10% at most. A longer war helps Moscow, drains the US, pressures Europe’s energy reserves, and shifts the global balance toward China.

1/

Zelenskyy: We prepared a “drone deal” for the US and proposed it to Trump.

It’s a full defense system: drones, anti-drone protection, air defense, and electronic warfare. Ukraine has built a unique system for stopping mass attacks because of this war.

2/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine is investing $30 billion in defense in 2026. The industry says it already has capacity for $60 billion in output.

This is a massive wartime leap — from almost nothing to a major defense sector, built with partner funding and years of rapid growth.

3/