1/ The Russian MOD's reported decision to block the supply of drones to frontline troops and reserve them solely for the Unmanned Systems Forces continues to cause consternation among Russian warbloggers. Former drone pilot Andrey Filatov predicts disastrous consequences. ⬇️
2/ Writing on Telegram, Filatov says:"Judging by rumours and the shortage of drones, there is a sense that Mr. (or whatever title the reader prefers) Krivoruchko, First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, wants to take drones away from frontline units,…
3/ …thereby effectively destroying the personnel trained at the cost of enormous losses on the front lines.
4/ "Even the small measure of effectiveness that currently exists—hard-won by the troops—will be wiped out: at best, the fighters will be transferred to the Unmanned Systems Forces; at worst, they will simply be ground down in assaults."
5/ Filatov notes that Krivoruchko has long-established links with the military-industrial complex, including part-ownership of the Kalashnikov concern which he acquired in a 2013 buyout. As Filatov puts it, "He's formally exiting business, but his connections remain intact."
6/ "...The centralisation of UAVs is the wet dream of any major defence supplier. Small manufacturers, frontline engineers, and other passionate individuals are being squeezed out, the innovation market, which relies on speed and flexibility, is collapsing.
7/ "The result is less room to manoeuvre on the battlefield, but more money for the major players.
[W]here in his biography is anything related to combat operations? What does he understand about battlefield tactics and strategy?
8/ "At least at the battalion level of battle planning? Now they're whispering that his decision to remove drones from infantry due to (!) low effectiveness... what does he even understand about effectiveness?
9/ "Even without such appointments, the generals' systemic lies regularly delay key political decisions, including those related to mobilisation. Actual losses are concealed entirely or spread out over time, creating a perception at the top that things aren't so critical.
10/ "As a result, the army isn't being renewed, there's no normal rotation, and no one to pass on accumulated combat experience. Military academies continue to operate according to peacetime logic.
11/ "Cadets graduate with diplomas but without an understanding of modern warfare, and (thanks in part to Krivoruchko) there won't be any soldiers left at the front who could advise them on how to survive and preserve their units.
12/ "I'm a frequent critic of the military and the Ground Forces Regulations adopted in 2019, which even then didn't reflect the realities of modern warfare. This criticism is based on personal experience on the front lines.
13/ "I spent almost four years on the line of contact, two and a half of which were in dugouts, 500-700 metres from the enemy. We survived and operated thanks to the drones I purchased with donations from subscribers—and we built real combat tactics on them.
14/ "Now, thanks to Krivoruchko, the front-line infantry is simply being blinded, deprived of their own drones. The infantry-drone connection will collapse.
15/ "Controlling drones from the second echelon is impossible: there's no unified system, no proper communications, no real-time data transfer. Radios and civilian devices don't work—speed is lost, and therefore effectiveness. But how would he know that?"
16/ Filatov notes that former plumbing fixture salesman Yuri Vagonov, known unofficially by the callsign 'Toilet', was put in charge of the newly created Unmanned Systems Forces (BPS) last November, despite a complete lack of military experience.
17/ "Krivoruchko, they say, "won" him a general's position from scratch. Vaganov is linked to a large number of defective Sudoplatov drones and the deaths of FPV operators (the head of the Sudoplatov project courses sent the fighters the coordinates of the training site…
18/ …via [Telegam]. HIMARS arrived). The dead were blamed for everything, of course.
By the way! During the coronavirus epidemic, Vaganov is said to have successfully sold medical masks, then switched to drones. What a genius!
19/ "Not someone in stripes, but some kind of business weather vane, trembling at the cutting edge of modernity. And these people forbid us from picking our noses...
20/ "Now Vaganov will decide how to develop unmanned aerial vehicles at the combined arms level, where to buy what, and who to force under his thumb. It will be a great success if this results in at least something on the level of the popular Rubicon unit, Lubikon.
21/ "Let me remind you, in case anyone has forgotten: Once upon a time, enthusiasts and philanthropists financed the mass introduction of FPV and operator training.
22/ "Local commanders, often violating the organisational structure of units, themselves sent people to study, and this produced results, the situation at the front began to level out. And then Lubikon appeared – a kind of showcase that everyone admires.
23/ "Sometimes deservedly so, of course, but it often happened that the Lubikon “homunculus” would simply buy videos from those who were actually serving on the front lines—and pass them off as evidence of its own effectiveness.
24/ "Meanwhile, the actual units’ performance was underreported, while Lubikon was credited with better results. (It should also be noted that Lubikon’s best pilots are those who were initially trained in regular units using private funds and then poached.)"
25/ "Unmanned systems forces are built on the same principle, pulling in everyone who even slightly knows how to fly drones, but over time, pilot skill has declined significantly... I started flying when it wasn't mainstream.
26/ "We learned to find enemy positions ourselves, gradually accumulating experience in target acquisition. With the widespread introduction of Discord [for command and control], a certain degradation occurred.
27/ "If the commander is experienced, preferably combat-experienced and knows what he wants, he at least somehow trains new pilots.
28/ "But many tyrants (see above) come from the rear to replace the departed "first wave" commanders, with a complete lack of understanding of what's going on and a great love of a pretty picture.
29/ "They demand [to use] Discord (not anymore [it has now been banned]) – and instead of the planned, effective work of finding and engaging targets, they begin to indulge in whimsical behavior: fly here, look here, fire here and there...
30/ "As a result, a lot of time is wasted, and the overuse of ammunition on decoys, which the enemy, unlike us, is actively developing, increases. Here, competent mock-ups are a rarity, and more often than not, they're the work of volunteers." /end
1/ Russia's attempts to block Telegram and force the population to switch to the state-approved messenger app MAX have simply resulted in the population adopting VPNs en masse. Ordinary Russians describe how they are evading the government's blocks. ⬇️
2/ VPNs are a booming business in Russia, with a massive increase in downloads over recent months. Circumvention is routine, even for pro-regime loyalists. According to one Russian citizen, "even the vatniks at work have VPNs."
3/ Readers of the Russian news outlet 'We can explain' (MO) have been describing how they get around the government's restrictions and are continuing to use Telegram. (Ironically, many state-owned businesses and government entities are doing the same things.)
1/ Outgoing US DNI Tulsi Gabbard's release of "evidence of US biolabs" around the world, with Ukraine singled out in her statement, is being widely cited by Russian commentators as proof of Russia's propaganda conspiracy theories on the topic. ⬇️
2/ Many Russian warbloggers and commentators have reported the release. A number have taken the opportunity to highlight how, in their view, Gabbard has vindicated Russia's claims about "Ukrainian biolabs" which were supposedly being used to develop biological weapons.
3/ Among them is Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, whose department has been a key player in promoting those claims. She applauds Gabbard's actions:
1/ Donald Trump's weak and vacillating approach towards Iran is being watched with keen interest in Russia as a lesson in how to bend America to its will. Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik recommends that Russia should step up hostile activity against the EU and US. ⬇️
2/ Writing on his Telegram channel, Baranchik asks: "What can we learn from the Iranian experience?
Iran just gave the world a masterclass in how to negotiate with the US from a position of strength."
3/ "Tehran didn't just negotiate its own terms; it dictated 14 points of its negotiating position to Washington, including lifting the blockade, withdrawing troops, unfreezing assets, and $300 billion for economic and infrastructure reconstruction.
1/ Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil refineries are reportedly pushing them into a crisis, with a loss of control over fuel supplies and a lack of effective anti-drone defences. Russian oil giant Rosneft is reportedly pushing for nationalisation. ⬇️
2/ Russia's oil refinery ownership is dominated by a handful of large vertically integrated companies. State-controlled Rosneft and Gazprom Neft control the largest and most modern refineries, along with a number of private companies including Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Tatneft.
3/ All of these companies' refineries have come under repeated and highly costly attacks from Ukrainian drones, which have caused increasing shortages of fuel across western Russia. There is said to be a critical lack of coordinated efforts to defend the refineries.
1/ Many of the Russian soldiers seen daily being blown up by Ukrainian drones are there not because they're trained infantry, but are specialists or even officers who are being sent to their deaths as a punishment. A Russian colonel says he's never seen anything like it. ⬇️
2/ An 'old recruit' who has survived two years' service in the Russian army writes to warblogger and journalist Maxim Kalashnikov to relay his experience of how the army is routinely sending men to die in assaults for displeasing their superiors, regardless of their expertise:
3/ "About a month ago, I managed to meet with an officer from our artillery battalion. We started serving in it at the same time. I was dropped from the unit to the hospital earlier. He displeased his superiors and ended up in an assault unit. He wasn't alone, though.
1/ The Russian government claims that Ukraine's drone attacks against Russia are for political rather than military aims, given the supposed impossibility of a Ukrainian victory. A Russian warblogger warns that this is a dangerous illusion resulting from distorted information. ⬇️
2/ Svyatoslav Golikov, author of the 'Philologist in Ambush' Telegram channel, writes:
3/ "The official domestic information space is circulating the idea that enemy air strikes on critical infrastructure, primarily fuel and energy facilities and logistics,…