VolSignals Profile picture
Apr 19 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
What is RTM?

RTM captures institutional order flow.
Flow large enough to actually move indexes.

It's not dealer hedging flow, but there are similarities
(and it pairs really, really well with VS3D hedging data)

Here's what RTM is >>Image
RTM is a premium retail day-trading community and a proprietary algorithmic model known.

The signals from the model are streamed over a private Zoom call with live intraday commentary from both TC & Scotty.
Alongside the RTM model we stream the VS3D intraday SPX hedging profile, and I (VolSignals) provide access to my intraday commentary from VS Pro, and whenever possible- join the live conversation on stream too.
Convergence between models is excellent- but this thread is about RTM's specific signals

We stream real-time, institutional-grade market microstructure data for trading the S&P 500 (SPX options and /ES futures).

It's perfect for futures traders.
It's perfect for 0DTE traders.
Key signals from the model

The "Lines" (SML/SAL):

The model calculates a "Strongest Morning Line" and "Strongest Afternoon Line," which act as institutional equilibrium areas where price is expected to either magnetically revert to or aggressively trend away from.
These lines often produce market outcomes that look just like what happens when we PIN key SPX inventory.

When lines show up aligned with dealer PIN inventory

...excellent Image
Box Prints (e.g., 2-Box, 7-Box):

Boxes reflect specific activity in the index-related assets we track, occurring at a certain level and time.

When these boxes appear sequentially they indicate trend or exhaustion.

Certain types of boxes have proven "different" than others, over time... e.g., a "7 Box" near the SML indicates a high probability of mean reversionImage
AP Callouts & White Arrows:

Real-time tracking of "Authorized Participant" (institutional) buying and selling pressure, and directional 'counter-trend' arrows often flag sharp, imminent moves during the session.Image
Market Regimes:

The model explicitly categorizes the market into environments like "Secular Mean Reversion" (SMR) and "Secular Trending Mode" (STM) to dictate trading strategies.
Our Pricing Bot streams intraday options context from the 0DTE profile, adding insight about the market's expected moves as well as pricing convex strategies that exploit the signals from the model.
The RTM model is one of the sharpest models I've seen, especially when paired alongside our dealer hedging flow data

and we're upgrading it.
JOIN TONIGHT AT 7PM EST ON ZOOM >>

and learn all about RTM and the latest upgrade

us06web.zoom.us/j/84599931391
RTM isn't for tourists.

If you're a serious trader- or aspiring to become one, then it may be a perfect fit.

Trials start each Monday and run all week.

Sign up here and start with us tomorrow ~

volsignals.com/rtm

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More from @VolSignals

Apr 18
I'm going to be brutally honest here

I pay almost no attention to news headlines

they almost never feature in my market analysis-
and if they DO, my outcomes are almost always worse

(short thread)
But I'd never be so naive as to suggest

"news doesn't matter"

I think the truth requires more maturity in our thinking
Whether we like it or not- the market is a system

This system has a never-ending tilt up and to the right, and I think that's generally going to be true as long as people have jobs.

I credit Mike Green @profplum99 for saving me from my own tendency to ignore this
Read 25 tweets
Mar 29
Yes, most quarters finish well above the hedge strike level.

Remember- what the fund is doing is basic.

Fund = own stocks
Fund wants to protect stocks

Fund buys a down 5% put (that's expensive!)
Fund sells a down 20% put to cheapen cost

Still expensive!

So the fund... (1/n)
...sells a call to make it even cheaper.

They aim for a zero-cost collar.

They can fix the strike- but that would make it vary in cost. When implied volatility is low, they would likely pay a meaningful net-premium for the structure.

So they fix the cost ($0) and vary the strike
So they are always hedged
with a structure like this:

Fund owns -20% / -5% Put Spread (for protection)
Fund is short the up ~4-5% Call (to fund protection)

The market trends UP over time.

It should not be surprising that we wind up near or at the Call strike, most quarters.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
1-month skew crashed last week

BIG RED FLAG FOR THE BULLS Image
Everyone claims skew crashes because
investors monetize hedges

but this is a hand-wavy explanation that pundits throw out there because it makes sense

Investors buy puts, puts get expensive

how else would they get cheap again
unless those same investors sell them out?
Before I explain it to you, please know I cannot predict any investor behavior.

None.

I can predict customer behavior precisely when it's patterned, but macro investor behavior is unpredictable
Read 16 tweets
Mar 22
SPX has been grinding down to the JPM Collar hedge level at 6475 as vol has steadily crept higher.

Does market maker hedging cause pinning behavior at major dealer short-strikes?

NO.

(A THREAD)Image
Price doesn't gravitate towards a near-dated short option the same way it does a long option.

Especially since charm (delta decay) literally forces the dealer to hedge in a way that pushes the market away from their shortest position as that position decays.
So what's actually happened this cycle?

Have you noticed anything interesting about Volatility?

It just won't subside...
Read 11 tweets
Mar 9
I'm seeing a tremendous amount of hype, hyperbole and misinformation on options risk and how hedging is or isn't shaping this move

if all the noise is too much, I challenge you to just drop X for a week and come join our 7-day (free) trial to VS3D

Here's what it entails >> Image
Your dashboard is your lens into the REAL options market

Left: Actual market maker 0DTE positions @ strike (l/s)

Right (top): Actual market maker gamma

Right (bottom): Actual market maker charm

This is far beyond inference or technical analysis Image
Those positions you saw on the left side of the page create rules- literal rules about future flows.

Think about that for a second...

We have the actual (exchange/clearing verified) market maker positions down to the quantity on EVERY SINGLE SPX OPTION THROUGH THE 2030S
Read 10 tweets
Feb 6
"We think a stronger gamma supply from the 0DTE complex has driven the long gamma overhang (lower intraday volatility, all else equal)" - UBS

Bingo – not all gamma is created equal Image
Longer tenor options literally have different gamma profiles.

Their gamma distributes farther across spot ranges and has less local variation (speed)
This creates stable gamma "regimes" at the back of the gamma profile.

Remember the regimes?
Read 13 tweets

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