Thread by @dolphin_dane

BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 RESULTS
After collecting the predictions of 327 fans and using them to simulate the contest 100000 times in a sophisticated model, here are the results. A full, high detail forecast of the contest based on our collective wisdom (a thread 🧵)

Before we start, a quick disclaimer:
While the model has proven relatively reliable before, being on par/better than the odds, it is not omniscient. There will be misses
The results are also not my personal predictions, as I am only responsible for one 327th of the models data

SEMI 1
While 🇫🇮🇬🇷🇸🇪🇮🇱🇲🇩 look like obvious safe qualifiers, 🇭🇷🇷🇸🇲🇪 also look likely, in part helped by strong support from each other. 🇱🇹🇬🇪 round off the top 10 with 🇵🇱 looking like a dark horse, and 🇧🇪🇵🇹 being outsiders. Chances look more bleak for 🇪🇪🇸🇲, but nothing is impossible

SEMI 2
A clear top 3 of 🇩🇰🇦🇺🇺🇦, while 🇲🇹🇨🇾🇦🇱🇨🇿🇷🇴 also look relatively safe. It looks like a tight four-way battle between 🇳🇴🇧🇬🇱🇻🇨🇭 for the remaining two spots, with 🇦🇲 as an outsider. 🇱🇺 looks unlikely but not impossible, while 🇦🇿 receives the worst % in the history of the model

FINAL
A clear frontrunner, with 🇫🇮 looking like the only country contending for the win in both categories. 🇫🇷🇦🇺 could use a jury win as a springboard, while 🇬🇷🇮🇱 would rely on strong televote showings. 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇺🇦🇮🇹 look like potential compromise winners, if others fail

Let us now move on to a detailed country by country forecast. For each country I will show you the predictions that fed the model, as well as the distribution of placements for the entry in the 100000 simulations

Finland
Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen - Liekinheitin
Tele-power: 86.02%
Jury-power: 86.5%

Winner chance: 50.567%
Top 3 chance: 84.083%
Top 5 chance: 94.37%
Top 10 chance: 99.697%
Qualification chance: 100%

France
Monroe - Regarde !
Tele-power: 60.09%
Jury-power: 88.94%

Winner chance: 10.33%
Top 3 chance: 37.576%
Top 5 chance: 61.137%
Top 10 chance: 92.845%
Qualification chance: 100%

Denmark
Søren Torpegaard Lund - Før vi går hjem
Tele-power: 73.63%
Jury-power: 77.45%

Winner chance: 10.285%
Top 3 chance: 37.263%
Top 5 chance: 58.459%
Top 10 chance: 89.616%
Qualification chance: 99.972%

Sweden
Felicia - My System
Tele-power: 74.81%
Jury-power: 73.84%

Winner chance: 8.394%
Top 3 chance: 32.109%
Top 5 chance: 52.772%
Top 10 chance: 86.492%
Qualification chance: 99.97%

Greece
Akylas - Ferto
Tele-power: 86.13%
Jury-power: 59.44%

Winner chance: 5.57%
Top 3 chance: 29.457%
Top 5 chance: 54.821%
Top 10 chance: 92.154%
Qualification chance: 99.973%

Australia
Delta Goodrem - Eclipse
Tele-power: 52.22%
Jury-power: 85.95%

Winner chance: 4.114%
Top 3 chance: 19.518%
Top 5 chance: 39.219%
Top 10 chance: 81.161%
Qualification chance: 99.825%

Ukraine
Leléka - Ridnym
Tele-power: 72.08%
Jury-power: 66.02%

Winner chance: 5.558%
Top 3 chance: 20.911%
Top 5 chance: 36.186%
Top 10 chance: 70.478%
Qualification chance: 98.582%

Israel
Noam Bettan - Michelle
Tele-power: 87.65%
Jury-power: 40.37%

Winner chance: 1.791%
Top 3 chance: 14.152%
Top 5 chance: 34.401%
Top 10 chance: 80.262%
Qualification chance: 99.752%

Italy
Sal Da Vinci - Per sempre sì
Tele-power: 66.13%
Jury-power: 63.37%

Winner chance: 1.881%
Top 3 chance: 9.777%
Top 5 chance: 20.65%
Top 10 chance: 55.288%
Qualification chance: 100%

Moldova
Satoshi - Viva, Moldova!
Tele-power: 77.9%
Jury-power: 33.98%

Winner chance: 0.326%
Top 3 chance: 3.843%
Top 5 chance: 12.113%
Top 10 chance: 50.865%
Qualification chance: 98.816%

Albania
Alis - Nân
Tele-power: 47.75%
Jury-power: 62.06%

Winner chance: 0.278%
Top 3 chance: 2.313%
Top 5 chance: 6.816%
Top 10 chance: 31.65%
Qualification chance: 88.953%

Croatia
Lelek - Andromeda
Tele-power: 49.81%
Jury-power: 59.37%

Winner chance: 0.289%
Top 3 chance: 2.246%
Top 5 chance: 5.951%
Top 10 chance: 24.823%
Qualification chance: 94.995%

Czechia
Daniel Zizka - Crossroads
Tele-power: 31.95%
Jury-power: 72.45%

Winner chance: 0.109%
Top 3 chance: 1.412%
Top 5 chance: 5.179%
Top 10 chance: 30.14%
Qualification chance: 85.334%

Romania
Alexandra Căpitănescu - Choke Me
Tele-power: 63.33%
Jury-power: 46.78%

Winner chance: 0.233%
Top 3 chance: 1.931%
Top 5 chance: 5.419%
Top 10 chance: 26.233%
Qualification chance: 78.551%

Cyprus
Antigoni - Jalla
Tele-power: 61.58%
Jury-power: 48.08%

Winner chance: 0.114%
Top 3 chance: 1.082%
Top 5 chance: 3.686%
Top 10 chance: 21.55%
Qualification chance: 91.194%

Malta
Aidan - Bella
Tele-power: 33.63%
Jury-power: 63.1%

Winner chance: 0.071%
Top 3 chance: 0.819%
Top 5 chance: 2.873%
Top 10 chance: 17.145%
Qualification chance: 93.065%

United Kingdom
Look Mum No Computer - Eins, Zwei, Drei
Tele-power: 34.67%
Jury-power: 23.73%

Winner chance: 0.002%
Top 3 chance: 0.06%
Top 5 chance: 0.218%
Top 10 chance: 1.658%
Qualification chance: 100%

Serbia
Lavina - Kraj mene
Tele-power: 48.98%
Jury-power: 34.51%

Winner chance: 0.01%
Top 3 chance: 0.163%
Top 5 chance: 0.657%
Top 10 chance: 6.35%
Qualification chance: 88.022%

Austria
Cosmó - Tanzschein
Tele-power: 20.32%
Jury-power: 12.11%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.001%
Top 5 chance: 0.002%
Top 10 chance: 0.052%
Qualification chance: 100%

Germany
Sarah Engels - Fire
Tele-power: 24.65%
Jury-power: 23.12%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0%
Top 5 chance: 0.001%
Top 10 chance: 0.053%
Qualification chance: 100%

Lithuania
Lion Ceccah - Sólo quiero más
Tele-power: 33.4%
Jury-power: 50.97%

Winner chance: 0.02%
Top 3 chance: 0.293%
Top 5 chance: 1.091%
Top 10 chance: 7.693%
Qualification chance: 78.69%

Montenegro
Tamara Živković - Nova zora
Tele-power: 45.93%
Jury-power: 39.03%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.029%
Top 5 chance: 0.212%
Top 10 chance: 3.392%
Qualification chance: 85.666%

Latvia
Atvara - Ēnā
Tele-power: 29.37%
Jury-power: 58.5%

Winner chance: 0.026%
Top 3 chance: 0.39%
Top 5 chance: 1.525%
Top 10 chance: 10.888%
Qualification chance: 59.212%

Bulgaria
Dara - Bangaranga
Tele-power: 53.71%
Jury-power: 32.83%

Winner chance: 0.017%
Top 3 chance: 0.286%
Top 5 chance: 1.076%
Top 10 chance: 7.401%
Qualification chance: 64.17%

Norway
Jonas Lovv - Ya Ya Ya
Tele-power: 38.84%
Jury-power: 39.17%

Winner chance: 0.006%
Top 3 chance: 0.07%
Top 5 chance: 0.251%
Top 10 chance: 2.541%
Qualification chance: 64.611%

Switzerland
Veronica Fusaro - Alice
Tele-power: 29.44%
Jury-power: 51.57%

Winner chance: 0.009%
Top 3 chance: 0.173%
Top 5 chance: 0.691%
Top 10 chance: 5.431%
Qualification chance: 48.206%

Georgia
Bzikebi - On Replay
Tele-power: 38.89%
Jury-power: 27.84%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.005%
Top 5 chance: 0.039%
Top 10 chance: 0.994%
Qualification chance: 58.286%

Poland
Alicja - Pray
Tele-power: 24.6%
Jury-power: 31.83%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.01%
Top 5 chance: 0.034%
Top 10 chance: 0.459%
Qualification chance: 42.068%

Armenia
Simón - Paloma rumba
Tele-power: 42.26%
Jury-power: 19.4%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.018%
Top 5 chance: 0.081%
Top 10 chance: 1.46%
Qualification chance: 23.348%

Belgium
Essyla - Dancing on the Ice
Tele-power: 18.73%
Jury-power: 29.65%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0%
Top 5 chance: 0.004%
Top 10 chance: 0.09%
Qualification chance: 22.193%

Portugal
Bandidos do Cante - Rosa
Tele-power: 19.82%
Jury-power: 37.65%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.008%
Top 5 chance: 0.054%
Top 10 chance: 0.799%
Qualification chance: 20.525%

Estonia
Vanilla Ninja - Too Epic to Be True
Tele-power: 16.63%
Jury-power: 17.51%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0%
Top 5 chance: 0%
Top 10 chance: 0.003%
Qualification chance: 8.075%

Luxembourg
Eva Marija - Mother Nature
Tele-power: 20.88%
Jury-power: 35.33%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.002%
Top 5 chance: 0.012%
Top 10 chance: 0.337%
Qualification chance: 4.971%

San Marino
Senhit - Superstar
Tele-power: 9.96%
Jury-power: 10.12%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0%
Top 5 chance: 0%
Top 10 chance: 0%
Qualification chance: 2.969%

Azerbaijan
Jiva - Just Go
Tele-power: 2.9%
Jury-power: 11.55%

Winner chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0%
Top 5 chance: 0%
Top 10 chance: 0%
Qualification chance: 0.006%

And that's all! Thank you to everyone who made this possible! Can't wait to see what we got right, and what we inevitably got wrong!

@threadreaderapp unroll