1/ Russia's continuing difficulties in the war in Ukraine is leading to multiple warbloggers admitting that the war effort is failing. The latest entry in the genre comes from Alexander Karchenko, who says that ordinary Russians are more concerned about the "price of a latte". ⬇️
2/ Writing on his Telegram channel 'Witnesses of Bayraktar', Karchenko admits:
"Yes, we’re struggling. We’re all in this together. Me, you, and everyone reading this. For four years, we’ve been living in limbo."
3/ "The army is fighting, but the rest of us might not have been affected. The regrouping in the Kharkiv direction gave a push for change, but it fizzled out.
4/ "After repelling the 2023 counteroffensive, we convinced ourselves that victory would just fall into our laps. All we had to do was wait.
5/ "No, it didn’t. The enemy mobilised its modest resources. It switched to drone technology and is striving with all its might toward a robot war. Well, that’s when we’ll have to trade a living human for a flying machine.
6/ "The Ukrainians have another strong trait. They’ve shifted to total war. In recent months, they’ve ramped up mobilisation exponentially. Now they’re even weaving religious narratives into their propaganda.
7/ "You can laugh all you want, but the Ukrainian leadership is preparing to win this conflict. They’ve discarded all other options and staked everything on a military solution.
8/ "I can’t say the same about us. We’re still worried about the price of a latte. This is a dangerous trend. In war, between pragmatism and fanaticism, the latter will prevail.
9/ "They’re luring us with negotiations while simultaneously increasing the costs of military operations. But what will we do if we fail to reach an agreement this year?
10/ "For now, everything points to the Ukrainians not withdrawing from Donbas. They can only be defeated on the battlefield. You can throw stones at me, but under the current circumstances, we won’t be able to break their back.
11/ "Let me say it again: they’re leading us down the path of controlled escalation. That’s a sure path to the gallows. It’s time to turn the tables. Mobilisation and a shift to total war by any means necessary is a perfectly logical decision.
12/ "Yes, our lives will get harder, but we’ll survive. Don’t kid yourselves—no one is going to leave us alone.
13/ "So go ahead and sip your banana lattes while the politicians discuss peace. If the talks fail, we’ll pack our backpacks and learn how to operate drones on the fly. There are no other options.
14/ "P.S. In my view, total war isn’t about blocking the internet. Total war is the mobilisation of all available resources and their most effective use. Without the internet and communications, we won’t be able to wage a robot war." /end
1/ A Russian general has been arrested by a military court after being accused of 'selling' nearly 90 soldiers to a mercenary leader who is accused of extortion, kidnapping, arms trafficking, torture, and murder. Lt Gen Alexander Dembitsky denies the accusations. ⬇️
2/ The case involves Alexey Marushchenko, the head of the 'Yastreb' private military company, which fought in Ukraine. Yastreb's recruiters are said to have promised those who wished to enlish for military service that they would fight with Yastreb, rather than the regular army.
3/ The prospective contract soldiers were required to pay up front for this privilege. However, Russian criminal investigators found that Yastreb pocketed the recruits' money and they were sent straight to regular military units without any opportunity to serve with Yastreb.
1/ Soaring fuel prices in Russia are providing an unparalleled opportunity to make a quick profit through price gouging, artificial scarcity, and corruption. A Russian warblogger highlights how gas station owners and operators are exploiting the crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russian 'Kovpak's Detachment' Telegram channel writes:
"In the case of absolutely any shortage, tension in society is created by those who want to make money on it."
3/ "In the case of fuel – gas station owners and various scum, who, with the tacit permission (obviously, not for free) of the gas station management, hang around them.
1/ Russia's deal with India to supply fuel to alleviate the current shortages involves the Indians selling fuel refined from discounted Russian oil back to Russia at full market prices. As warblogger Yuri Baranchik points out, this is extraordinarily bad value for Russia. ⬇️
2/ Baranchik grumbles:
"Well, gentlemen, it's happened: we're witnessing the birth of a new economic reality, which can safely be called "a cycle of enrichment for the Indian oil refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens."
3/ "Look at the elegant business model that's emerging. We're pumping crude oil to India. A lot, a record amount, sometimes as much as 2.7 million barrels per day. Naturally, we're pumping it at that legendary discount that's become the talk of the town.
1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️
2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:
3/ "It's difficult to comment seriously on rumours, but discussions regarding the likelihood of a second mobilisation have long since transcended the realm of speculation.
1/ Russian soldiers are reported to be refusing en masse to attack across the border west of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian army units are said to have run out of fuel amidst the ongoing fuel crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russians are currently trying to link up two pockets on the border in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, to the east and west of the Russian village of Sereda, by attacking to the south. However, Ukrainian drones are reportedly making this unbearably bloody.
3/ 'Northern Channel' reports:
"There's a forest on the approach to Ternova, nicknamed "the Magic Forest"... As you can tell from the introduction, there's nothing good there."
1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:
3/ "If Russia really wanted to defeat Europe or completely disarm and destroy its military industry, Moscow would be able to do so relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success.