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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal.

None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/

Trump told Bloomberg Iran agreed to an "unlimited" suspension of enrichment.

He told CBS Tehran "agreed to everything" and would hand over its uranium. He told Axios a deal would come "in the next day or two." Sources said Iran had not agreed to those terms. 2/

Source familiar with the talks, to CNN: "The Iranians didn't appreciate POTUS negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn't yet agreed to."

Trump officials privately told CNN the commentary damaged the talks. 3/

Iran's foreign ministry: "Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iranian soil and will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances."

Hours earlier, Trump said US personnel would "go down and get it" with the Iranians and bring the stockpile to the United States. 4/

The ceasefire cracked further on Sunday.

The USS Spruance, a US guided-missile destroyer, fired into the engine room of Iranian cargo ship Touska and seized it in the Gulf of Oman. Iran's military vowed to retaliate against "US armed piracy." 5/

Trump demands no enrichment, indefinitely. Iran proposed a 10-year pause followed by a decade of low-level enrichment.

The US earlier offered 20 years. Iran countered with 5. Washington rejected that. 6/

Under discussion: the US unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran handing over its 400 kg stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium.

Trump spent years attacking Obama for the same move. He denied the report: "We are not paying 10 cents." 7/

The ceasefire deadline keeps moving.

Trump announced it at 6:32 p.m. ET on April 7. He then told Bloomberg it ends "Wednesday evening Washington time" — an extra 24 hours. Asked five times if he would extend it, he gave three different answers. 8/

Talks are now set for Wednesday morning in Islamabad.

Vance, Witkoff and Kushner lead the US delegation. Trump calls a further extension "highly unlikely." After Wednesday: accept an imperfect deal, or blow up Iranian bridges and power plants — a possible war crime. 9X

Source: edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/pol…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Budanov: Russia’s bigger loss is reputational. War sanctions may end someday, but doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier will last much longer.

Deliveries through the Black Sea and even the Baltic face major disruption.

1/

Budanov: Striking one target now often requires many drones as effectiveness drops under EW and air defenses. It’s a constant race.

The next leap must be AI, new communications, and better control systems — current methods are near their limit.

2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Zelenskyy: Orbán is a skilled and experienced political operator.

It’s a pity someone so strong chose Russia’s side. I believed he would lose because he built his campaign on hatred of one nation toward another.

1/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine can stop Shaheds and has built its own wartime systems, but we still lack Patriots or equivalents. If needed, we’ll produce them ourselves or with Europeans.

My top priority is finding more air defense, especially anti-ballistic systems.

2/

Zelenskyy: I feel like a parrot repeating the same answer — elections during war are not possible under the constitution.

They will happen when the war ends, and until then I will support and lead my country.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Former Ukraine FM Kuleba: Trump will not change his stance on Ukraine. He rejected Zelenskyy’s offer to help in the Gulf for one reason: he doesn't want to owe anything to Ukraine

He would even see it as a humiliation to admit that he cannot fix Iran without Ukraine’s support 1/

Kuleba: Trump’s line is clear and consistent. He wants to press Ukraine into concessions in the form of a withdrawal from the rest of the Donbas.

The part of Donetsk region Ukraine still controls, and then use that concession as the basis for a ceasefire. 2/

Kuleba: We are facing great-power thinking. Trump sees Russia as a great power and believes smaller nations should subjugate themselves to stronger ones.

In his world, Ukraine resisting Russian demands is like Venezuela resisting American demands. That is how he sees politics. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

American planners estimated three days to break Serbia's will in 1999. It took 79. Trump's team thought Iran would fold quickly. Six weeks later, the war continues.

Same cultural blind spot, different president — The Economist. 1/

A 2011 CIA paper on "Cultural Topography" used Kosovo as a case study.

Serbia's national day marks a 1389 defeat at Ottoman hands. Had analysts weighted Serbian honor, they would have warned: Serbia wins by standing up when the world expects it to fold. 2/

The same blind spot caused "terrible harms" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jeannie Johnson, professor at Utah State: "American commanders see foreign difficulties as problems to be solved or targets to be struck — rather than terrain to be navigated." 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Browder: The €90 billion EU loan is existential for Ukraine. If that money had stayed blocked, Russia could have regained the advantage.

Orban’s defeat removed the veto and gave Ukraine what it needs to keep the government running, pay soldiers, and fund drone production. 1/

Browder: Orban’s defeat was not only decisive for Hungary and Ukraine.

It also sent a message to every pro-Russian politician around him: back Moscow and you can lose in a landslide. That warning now hangs over Fico, Babis, and others. 2/

Browder: Ukraine hit about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity. They should hit 100% of it.

They should absolutely destroy Russia’s ability to generate hard currency for the war, because if Putin loses that money, he has no choice but to negotiate. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Browder: Putin got a double benefit from the Iran war. Fear of sanctions vanished, so the discount on Russian oil disappeared, and the oil price jumped.

Russia now sells its oil at the same price as everyone else, into a much stronger market. 1/

Browder: But it is not the bonanza Putin imagined. Ukraine has consistently attacked Russian refineries, storage sites, and oil ports, and Russia cannot protect them.

Much of its air defense goes to Moscow and Putin’s palaces, not the oil infrastructure. 2/

Browder: Trump’s sanctions waiver does not add supply or lower prices.

It just lets Russia sell at the international price instead of at a discount. That is a transfer of wealth from Indians and Chinese to Russians — another month-long gift to Putin. 3X