Thread by @clement_molin

This month of april 2026, Russia seized 117km2, of which 55% are located on the UKR-RUS 🇺🇦🇷🇺 border

Since the start of the year, Russian northern corps expanded its infiltrations in Sumy and Kharkiv regions

This strategy is forcing Ukraine to defend the border

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The current war is mainly fought in the blue area, the active frontline. The green area is a secondary frontline (Dnipro river).

Expanding the war on the black line (border) means a lot bigger frontline. Grey borders are unlikely to be expanded into conflict. (@UAControlMap)

According to data gathered by @Pouletvolant3, Russia seized 117km2 of Ukraine this month (still 8 days to go).

The situation is similar to 2024 and 2025, but this year has seen less progress than in 2025 (Kursk not included + half of this year is in Sumy last year was in Donbas)

Currently, ukrainian and russian troops at the border are concentrated in two directions, Sumy city and Kharkiv city, the only two big cities in the border areas.

Russia is trying to expand, with very limited capacities a buffer zone in multiple areas to increase pressure.

As @Pouletvolant3 mapped, Russia has been slightky expanding a small buffer zone, recently in the Hlukhiv and Krasnopilla directions.

There is no intention for a deep push into Ukraine, Russia's northern corps simply does not have the means.

In the rear of the northern direction, ukrainian forces are expanding defenses, with ring defenses to ~12 cities and towns and 2 reinforced lines.

Most of the border is currently a grey zone, ukrainian forces are often present 5km behind, in prepared positions.

New defenses are also being expanded further south into Kharkiv oblast. Here, defenses are much more serious, since they are closer to the active frontline.

Is a breakthrough of the border a possibility ? I don't think. We cannot rule out some local sucess in an less defended area of the region (especially with the big forest areas).

The northern corps is absolutely not a priority in the 35/40k monthly men deployment to the front.

I believe this corps received the mission to fix the maximum number of ukrainian forces on a large area to allow a push in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.

This front is secondary and territory taken here could be exchanged at the end of the war.

Thus, following the number of km2 taken per month can be seen differently.

I follow the same methodology, the same numbers since the beginning . The total grey zone is around 1 000km2, which means some mappers are adding those 1 000km2 to russian controled areas.

Again, I do not believe mappers or data analysts that said Ukraine retook more territory than Russia in february or may are reliable.

They exagerated russian control and invented fake counter-offensives.

As you can see, this month can be seen as low, but the trends are similar to 2025 or 2024. The month of may will probably see an acceleration, like before.

As I said for April, most of russian gains are in fact in border areas, which means only 45% are on the active frontline !

This said, the situation in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia remains tensed.

Ukraine gained crucial time to better its defenses, but important battle are going to start and may/june will see renewed massive offensives from russian side.

If those are slowed downed or stopped, it could open the way for the return of ukrainian counter-offensives.

As many knows, Syrsky has prioritised assault units for recruitments, meaning they are fully equipped and manned to eventually launch localized push.

I will soon talk more in details about the important battle for Kostiantynivka and Rai Oleksandrivka in the Kramatorsk direction, that will decide what will happen this year in Ukraine.

Thanks for following ! (Maps here from @Deepstate_UA)