Thread by @khodorkovsky_en

State-run pollster in Russia have published a noticeable drop in Putin's approval.

Last week, Russia's economy minister stood up and admitted the country's reserves are largely gone.

🧵Let's take a look at what it all could mean: [1/14]

The trigger appears to be the continued economic downturn. GDP is down 1.8%, with industry and construction also weakening.

Even more strikingly, the economy minister has admitted that a large share of Russia's reserves has already been used up. Putin has demanded answers.



[2/14]finance.yahoo.com/economy/articl…

On the surface, this looks like a standard economic story. But in Russia, this is a major departure from the norm.

The country has been through far worse without public acknowledgement from the top. So when criticism appears, it usually serves a political function.

[3/14]

It appears Putin is pressuring his government before September's Duma elections. Elite infighting and controlled instability are normal in election years and can be expected now.

We may see a government reshuffle, as has been done before to reset public opinion.

[4/14]

Putin's ratings are struggling right now, to the extent that even state-run polls are showing a noticeable drop in presidential approval.

When official pollsters publish that kind of decline, it's a signal that the information is being used within the system itself.



[5/14]reuters.com/world/europe/p…

What we're seeing is part of a broader internal struggle between the civilian-political administration and the security services, with the primary battleground being control over internet access.

[6/14]

Until recently, online policy was handled by the political bloc in the Presidential Administration, which avoided harsh restrictions before elections to limit public backlash.

[7/14]

Now, that control has shifted. The FSB has taken a more direct role, including blocking messaging platforms and restricting communications tools in a bid to contain opposition activity.



[8/14]bbc.com/news/articles/…

Heavy-handed restrictions risk alienating voters, especially in an already strained economic environment. For the political managers, that's a problem.



[9/14]thedailybeast.com/putins-fragile…

The response has been subtle but telling. Systemic "opposition" parties have been allowed to criticise the restrictions, and even to campaign on platforms that are officially blocked.



[10/14]fortune.com/2026/04/25/rus…

This indicates that not everyone within the system agrees with the approach taken by the security services, and opens the door for public dissatisfaction to be redirected in a way that is usually not permitted.

[11/14]

Put all of this together, and a pattern emerges. Economic criticism, Putin's falling ratings, and disputes over internet control are not separate issues. They are interconnected pieces of an internal power struggle.

[12/14]

The key question now is whether this pressure results in another government reshuffle, or whether it escalates into something bigger. Either way, the next few months are unlikely to be quiet.

[13/14]

For deeper analysis on what's happening inside the Russian system — including the parts that don't make it into Western media — subscribe to my free substack:

[14/14]khodorkovsky.substack.com