1/ After spending years demanding a full mobilisation, Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin has come to the realisation that it would now be pointless: Ukraine's swarms of drones are capable of destroying "any number of infantry", and Russia doesn't even have enough weapons to arm them. ⬇️
2/ A reader of his Telegram channel asks:
"Question: there's increasing talk of possible mobilisation—do you think the government will take such a step? And is mobilisation necessary under the current circumstances?"
To which Girkin replies:
3/ "Mobilisation was needed in the spring of 2022, the spring of 2023, the spring of 2024, and perhaps even the spring of 2025. Now, mobilisation is catastrophically late. Currently, mobilisation, as perceived by the majority of the population, will yield no results.
4/ "What we need now is to mobilise the military economy. The time when we could defeat, trample, and drive the enemy into the ground with masses of infantry is, unfortunately, over. It existed in '22, '23, and '24. It's doubtful in '25, and it simply doesn't exist in '26.
5/ "We are currently waging a war of drones, capable of destroying any number of infantry deployed to battle on any front, no matter how broad.
6/ "The enemy has established such a production of drones and missiles in Europe and in so-called Ukraine itself that it is now capable of holding the front almost entirely with them, which is precisely what is happening.
7/ "This means that large masses of people and equipment will be destroyed without achieving any success. Time has been lost.
8/ "Therefore, mobilisation is, of course, necessary if we are to win at all, but not so much and not only mobilising people for the army, but mobilising people for the military industry, science, and production.
9/ "And only then, over time (not now, not tomorrow, and not the day after), will we achieve a military economy capable of competing with and winning the confrontation with the military economies of Europe and so-called Ukraine.
10/ "This kind of mobilisation is necessary if, I emphasise again, we want to win, and this desire has been absent since the very beginning of the Special Military Operation Although what the Kremlin actually wants is completely unclear.
11/ "[Presidential spokesman] Peskov's statement that Russia is only a few kilometers away from achieving a peaceful settlement in Donbas is, forgive me, a lie and a bluff. Well, which, strictly speaking, is nothing new for this person and the department he represents.
12/ "Even if we manage to overcome those few kilometers separating Russian forward positions from Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and other cities of the Donetsk People's Republic, the war will not end at all, not even in the slightest.
13/ "Moreover, the enemy intends to wage it and has sufficient forces to do so. Therefore, whether it's a few kilometers, or even a few dozen kilometers, the war must be waged to win, and not to advance a few kilometers, strewing them with the corpses of our soldiers.
14/ "Right now, you can mobilise as many people as you want to the front, but they won't be able to turn the tide of the war. That moment has passed. I've been calling for mobilisation for four years.
15/ "Now I no longer call for the kind of mobilisation I spoke of earlier, because it's pointless. We, our economy, don't even have enough weapons to arm them." /end
1/ Why do Russian anti-drone units fail shoot down drones? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says they have numerous deficiencies, including bad communications, coordination, training, and drunkenness, that are undermining Russia's drone defences. ⬇️
"You can surround yourself with all sorts of equipment – radars, machine guns, state-of-the-art interceptors – and still miss an incoming aircraft simply because of a problem with the ‘padding between the steering wheel and the seat’.
3/ "– When mobile fire teams are afraid to shoot down drones (what if there's another one after them? What if it crashes somewhere wrong and gets called in?).
– When observers on duty are asleep or even drinking at their posts.
1/ Russian warbloggers are celebrating one piece of collateral damage from yesterday's drone attack in Moscow – a shot-down Ukrainian drone which set the huge Sadovod market on fire. Their comments highlight ingrained Russian anti-immigrant sentiment. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's attack targeted the oil refinery in Kapotnya, south-east of central Moscow. The surrounding area is heavily polluted and is one of the cheapest areas in Moscow in terms of housing costs. This has encouraged large numbers of immigrants to settle there.
3/ The nearby Sadovod market, established in 1997, is the largest wholesale and retail centre in the whole of Russia, covering an area of more than 40 hectares. It contains around 8,000 shops and attracts over 36 million customers annually, many coming from abroad.
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:
"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…
1/ Much worse is to come in Moscow, warns Russian warblogger 'Intelligence Diary'. An AI analysis shows that the city is full of strategic targets that Ukraine may try to hit as its drone offensive increases in scale and scope. ⬇️
"Drones have struck the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya for the third time since May. The question isn't whether the attacks will continue, but what will happen next."
3/ "Moscow and the surrounding region are the country's largest industrial region. High-tech production facilities are concentrated here, protected by air defences—things Russia can't afford to lose: energy, rocket science, and the defence industry.