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Apr 28 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ After spending years demanding a full mobilisation, Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin has come to the realisation that it would now be pointless: Ukraine's swarms of drones are capable of destroying "any number of infantry", and Russia doesn't even have enough weapons to arm them. ⬇️ Image
2/ A reader of his Telegram channel asks:

"Question: there's increasing talk of possible mobilisation—do you think the government will take such a step? And is mobilisation necessary under the current circumstances?"

To which Girkin replies:
3/ "Mobilisation was needed in the spring of 2022, the spring of 2023, the spring of 2024, and perhaps even the spring of 2025. Now, mobilisation is catastrophically late. Currently, mobilisation, as perceived by the majority of the population, will yield no results.
4/ "What we need now is to mobilise the military economy. The time when we could defeat, trample, and drive the enemy into the ground with masses of infantry is, unfortunately, over. It existed in '22, '23, and '24. It's doubtful in '25, and it simply doesn't exist in '26.
5/ "We are currently waging a war of drones, capable of destroying any number of infantry deployed to battle on any front, no matter how broad.
6/ "The enemy has established such a production of drones and missiles in Europe and in so-called Ukraine itself that it is now capable of holding the front almost entirely with them, which is precisely what is happening.
7/ "This means that large masses of people and equipment will be destroyed without achieving any success. Time has been lost.
8/ "Therefore, mobilisation is, of course, necessary if we are to win at all, but not so much and not only mobilising people for the army, but mobilising people for the military industry, science, and production.
9/ "And only then, over time (not now, not tomorrow, and not the day after), will we achieve a military economy capable of competing with and winning the confrontation with the military economies of Europe and so-called Ukraine.
10/ "This kind of mobilisation is necessary if, I emphasise again, we want to win, and this desire has been absent since the very beginning of the Special Military Operation Although what the Kremlin actually wants is completely unclear.
11/ "[Presidential spokesman] Peskov's statement that Russia is only a few kilometers away from achieving a peaceful settlement in Donbas is, forgive me, a lie and a bluff. Well, which, strictly speaking, is nothing new for this person and the department he represents.
12/ "Even if we manage to overcome those few kilometers separating Russian forward positions from Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and other cities of the Donetsk People's Republic, the war will not end at all, not even in the slightest.
13/ "Moreover, the enemy intends to wage it and has sufficient forces to do so. Therefore, whether it's a few kilometers, or even a few dozen kilometers, the war must be waged to win, and not to advance a few kilometers, strewing them with the corpses of our soldiers.
14/ "Right now, you can mobilise as many people as you want to the front, but they won't be able to turn the tide of the war. That moment has passed. I've been calling for mobilisation for four years.
15/ "Now I no longer call for the kind of mobilisation I spoke of earlier, because it's pointless. We, our economy, don't even have enough weapons to arm them." /end

Source:
t.me/i_strelkov_202…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 10
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️ Image
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised. Image
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 10
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️ Image
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
Read 30 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
Read 32 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
Read 28 tweets
Jul 10
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️ Image
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.
Read 29 tweets
Jul 9
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️ Image
2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…
Read 17 tweets

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