Crypto venture is quietly undergoing a radical transformation
Fund sizes are compressing, strategies are shifting, and new winners are emerging
Why?
1/ The set of risks that VC's get paid to take is evolving - and that changes everything
2/ A decent mental model of crypto venture from 2017 to 2021 is that you were arbitraging the gap between private and public valuations of blockchains
A L1 blockchain like Solana or Terra would raise at $50-200M in private markets and could trade up to $100B in public ones
3/ This trade worked really, really well
-There were not that many crypto funds and so you could generally get into deals
-Competition was less stiff and so private valuations were not crazy
-There were a limited number of tokens on CEX's and retail gobbled these things up
3/ AngelList's original product was an email list (hence the name!) that connected startups with investors
This sounds silly and basic but Naval was already very influential in Silicon Valley and a ton of credible companies including Uber raised money through this email list
Spent the last few days talking to family offices/endowments/allocators interested in crypto
No surprise but the mood is good! BTC nearing $100K after us being called idiots for 2 years
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how I'm seeing private markets slowly opening up
2/ The direction is clearly in the direction of capital inflows but it will take time
Let's assume that most institutional sources of capital read the NYT and don't follow Polymarket
They assigned a Trump victory roughly 50% chance and positioned their portfolios as such
3/ If you assume people rationally deal with their largest positions first, there is a bunch of work to do on repositioning fixed income, energy stocks, anything touching ESG, etc
Opportunistic things like crypto or the 1-3% crypto exposure you already have is not a Q1 thing