We just had top ETF launch ever, BTC emissions halved, Trump's gone full degen, and you're bearish??
Investors are projecting their own misery, not doing objective analysis
1/ Let's crack a cold beer on this sunny Friday, relish how far we've come, and how far we have to go
2/ Every bull market has had months of chop
This one is no different
There are two ways to look at this current moment
(A) Reversion to quality
(B) All infra VC tokens are fucked
A is right. Choose rich [ shoutout @chooserich ]
May 3 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Why is this cycle cooked? Why is everyone miserable?
We can distill all of our problems down to the fact that retail can no longer make real money in the current market structure
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on returning to our roots and unfucking the current cycle
2/ The answer to why retail isn't here this cycle is so utterly simple
It's because there are no more 500x's in 'trad' crypto markets like infra tokens
And there is now a more fun casino, with better memes, right around the corner
The biggest winners of this cycle will be apps that vertically integrate and build on-chain biz models
As web3 infra becomes increasingly commoditized, distribution is THE thing that matters
1/ Here is how consumer apps are quietly eating infrastructure
2/ Apps will finally have their day by commoditizing the crypto infra stack and vertically integrating
Attention, Distribution, Brand
These are what matters in this industry and the leading apps have it in spades
Apr 19 • 49 tweets • 10 min read
The current structure of token launches is feeding a 'down only' paradigm where prices will get rekt
Tokens launch at a high FDV, slowly bleed out as airdrop recipients sell, and then collapse as VC's unlock
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how to unfuck the current paradigm
2/ @MikeZajko always describes worst case scenario for a teams token trajectory as the ICP chart
If your token price looks like this, you are fucked long term
Apr 12 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
I spent the week talking to founders, VC's, and family offices in Hong Kong
It was my first time in Asia in a crypto context and utterly fascinating
1/ Here's what I learned over many dim sum meals
2/ My conversations generally focused on three categories:
-Crypto adoption in Asia
-How Asian allocators are approaching crypto
-Macro backdrop/where we are in the cycle
Apr 5 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
Spent a few days this week skiing with some crypto VC's and folks who allocate to crypto venture
There are some common themes on everyone's mind
1/ This is what crypto vc's are chatting about over $11 coors lights
2/ The industry meta ATM is to what extent 'useful projects' are currently being built
One of the easiest ways to get rekt in crypto is making the right directional bet but placing the wrong wager
You can get rekt by introducing embedded risks
You can get rekt by trying to minimize downside
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how to properly express market views
2/ One of the most frustrating mistakes we've made is making the right directional bet but placing the wrong wager to capture the upside
You need to make sure that your bets express your market views as purely as possible
Mar 18 • 40 tweets • 9 min read
It is widely accepted that the way to make money in VC is to be contrarian and right
This is absolutely false in crypto venture - all that matters is your ability to front run the narrative
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on the bizarre memetic economy we call home
2/ In VC the common logic is that being right is not enough - if many other investors share the same outlook, it will be priced in
This more or less applies the efficient market hypothesis to private markets
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on where opportunities lie in this cycle...
2/ Historically the way VC's framed opportunities in the crypto market was around applications vs protocols
In the modern internet era, applications (Google) had captured much more value than protocols (HTTP)
Apps are where VC's had made money - Ebay, Facebook, Google
Mar 5 • 46 tweets • 8 min read
ETH Denver is in the rearview mirror
All the VC's got in a weekend of skiing right after
We can now focus on where the markets go from here
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on public mania and how to play its spillover into the private markets
2/ As an aside, can confirm that Snowbasin was absolutely firing this weekend
But let's get back to business
Feb 22 • 42 tweets • 8 min read
Where are we in the market cycle?
Why are crypto VC’s embracing meme coins?
Will any of this stuff ever do anything?
1/ Some jumbled thoughts about the middle of the curve
2/ Crypto venture as a weird hybrid of classic venture investing (is this founder exceptional?) with penny stock tracking (can a retail audience get excited about the 92nd L2?)
May 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There's lots of talk about where we are in the cycle - I think we're in Q1 2019
Apathy is setting in, unclear horizon for short term catalysts, and clear headwinds for capital inflows
Looking back at the last cycle provides the clearest indication of where we go from here
1/2/ Full thoughts here:
2 subscribed