Crypto venture is quietly undergoing a radical transformation
Fund sizes are compressing, strategies are shifting, and new winners are emerging
Why?
1/ The set of risks that VC's get paid to take is evolving - and that changes everything
2/ A decent mental model of crypto venture from 2017 to 2021 is that you were arbitraging the gap between private and public valuations of blockchains
A L1 blockchain like Solana or Terra would raise at $50-200M in private markets and could trade up to $100B in public ones
Feb 13 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
It was the best of times
It was the worst of times
One of the most overused quotes in English literature, but honestly pretty accurately describes current crypto vibes
1/ Some jumbled on why people seem so fucking grumpy
2/ We have gotten everything we've wanted
Degen president who is launching meme coins
Smart, friendly leadership at SEC/CFTC
Largest M&A ever
BTC + ETH ETF's
So why is everyone so utterly miserable?
I don't have all the answers but I have some ideas
Jan 16 • 35 tweets • 7 min read
ICO's roaring back is wildly health for the space and sets this cycle up for a much stronger base of token holders
Let's dig into how we got here, where we go, and why it matters
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on the future of capital formation in crypto
2/ This story start in 2010 as @naval saw an opportunity to bring retail investors into venture capital and democratize the asset class
He launched @AngelList and by 2013 the platform had helped startups raise more than $200M
Spent the last few days talking to family offices/endowments/allocators interested in crypto
No surprise but the mood is good! BTC nearing $100K after us being called idiots for 2 years
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how I'm seeing private markets slowly opening up
2/ The direction is clearly in the direction of capital inflows but it will take time
Let's assume that most institutional sources of capital read the NYT and don't follow Polymarket
They assigned a Trump victory roughly 50% chance and positioned their portfolios as such
Oct 1, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Today we're publishing our 2nd annual State of Seed report
We analyzed 1000+ companies that raised seeds rounds in 2022 and evaluated if they were finding PMF, raising follow on funding, and launching tokens
1/ Let's look and see where all those VC dollars went
2/ Here is the full report including the dataset, which are we open sourcing
Kudos to @MikeZajko and @PChuzeville who drove the research on our end
Spent an action packed 4 days in Singapore chatting with VC's, exchanges, and family offices
1/ A few Tigers deep at the Singapore airport before a vv long journey home, some jumbled thoughts on my trip here
2/ Let's talk about
adoption
vibe
allocator/lp view
Jul 31, 2024 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Today @daylightenergy_ is announcing their $9M Series A led by a16z
Even more excitingly they are finally sharing more about the next gen distributed energy platform they've been building for the last two years
1/ Some more on our thesis and why we're so excited
2/ Testnet of the Daylight protocol is now live - you can start earning rewards by connecting a distributed energy device to their mobile app
Vibe check from ETH CC was decently positive - there are plenty of pockets of optimism (s/o @megaeth_labs)
But there is definitely still plenty of uncertainty (and maybe boredom)
1/ Some takeaways over waffles/lambics/fries
2/ IMO most valuable part of crypto conferences is getting a vibe check
Are people excited? If so, about what?
People can say they ignore crypto prices all they want, but in my experience vibes tend to have a strong positive correlation with price!
Jun 28, 2024 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
This cycle's focus on points has helped fuel the current lame pvp vibe - 🤞🏼 Blast TGE is the end of it
There are so many exciting $1B+ opportunities in expanding crypto's TAM - let's work on these!
1/ Here's why we should move on - and where the exciting opportunities are
2/ People have debated why this cycle feels cooked, pvp, unexciting
Building GTM strategies around points is circular - teams chase the same 10k mercenary users
That focus is way better spent on truly novel crypto use cases. Build those and the users will come
Jun 6, 2024 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
Crypto is back. Crypto vc funds are hiring again
Have gotten pinged last few weeks asking for advice on getting these roles
Can't give succinct advice but I can write 30 tweet threads
1/ Here's rough story of Lattice and the mistakes and lessons along the way
2/ Journey starts in 2016, moved to SF to work on venture team at AngelList
Had been working in tech in NYC and had spent prior 6 months failing to try to start a company
So I needed $ + a job + thought of learning more about vc was appealing after 75+ vc's had turned me down
May 10, 2024 • 24 tweets • 8 min read
We just had top ETF launch ever, BTC emissions halved, Trump's gone full degen, and you're bearish??
Investors are projecting their own misery, not doing objective analysis
1/ Let's crack a cold beer on this sunny Friday, relish how far we've come, and how far we have to go
2/ Every bull market has had months of chop
This one is no different
There are two ways to look at this current moment
(A) Reversion to quality
(B) All infra VC tokens are fucked
A is right. Choose rich [ shoutout @chooserich ]
May 3, 2024 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Why is this cycle cooked? Why is everyone miserable?
We can distill all of our problems down to the fact that retail can no longer make real money in the current market structure
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on returning to our roots and unfucking the current cycle
2/ The answer to why retail isn't here this cycle is so utterly simple
It's because there are no more 500x's in 'trad' crypto markets like infra tokens
And there is now a more fun casino, with better memes, right around the corner
The biggest winners of this cycle will be apps that vertically integrate and build on-chain biz models
As web3 infra becomes increasingly commoditized, distribution is THE thing that matters
1/ Here is how consumer apps are quietly eating infrastructure
2/ Apps will finally have their day by commoditizing the crypto infra stack and vertically integrating
Attention, Distribution, Brand
These are what matters in this industry and the leading apps have it in spades
Apr 19, 2024 • 49 tweets • 10 min read
The current structure of token launches is feeding a 'down only' paradigm where prices will get rekt
Tokens launch at a high FDV, slowly bleed out as airdrop recipients sell, and then collapse as VC's unlock
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how to unfuck the current paradigm
2/ @MikeZajko always describes worst case scenario for a teams token trajectory as the ICP chart
If your token price looks like this, you are fucked long term
Apr 12, 2024 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
I spent the week talking to founders, VC's, and family offices in Hong Kong
It was my first time in Asia in a crypto context and utterly fascinating
1/ Here's what I learned over many dim sum meals
2/ My conversations generally focused on three categories:
-Crypto adoption in Asia
-How Asian allocators are approaching crypto
-Macro backdrop/where we are in the cycle
Apr 5, 2024 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
Spent a few days this week skiing with some crypto VC's and folks who allocate to crypto venture
There are some common themes on everyone's mind
1/ This is what crypto vc's are chatting about over $11 coors lights
2/ The industry meta ATM is to what extent 'useful projects' are currently being built
One of the easiest ways to get rekt in crypto is making the right directional bet but placing the wrong wager
You can get rekt by introducing embedded risks
You can get rekt by trying to minimize downside
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on how to properly express market views
2/ One of the most frustrating mistakes we've made is making the right directional bet but placing the wrong wager to capture the upside
You need to make sure that your bets express your market views as purely as possible
Mar 18, 2024 • 40 tweets • 9 min read
It is widely accepted that the way to make money in VC is to be contrarian and right
This is absolutely false in crypto venture - all that matters is your ability to front run the narrative
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on the bizarre memetic economy we call home
2/ In VC the common logic is that being right is not enough - if many other investors share the same outlook, it will be priced in
This more or less applies the efficient market hypothesis to private markets
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on where opportunities lie in this cycle...
2/ Historically the way VC's framed opportunities in the crypto market was around applications vs protocols
In the modern internet era, applications (Google) had captured much more value than protocols (HTTP)
Apps are where VC's had made money - Ebay, Facebook, Google
Mar 5, 2024 • 46 tweets • 8 min read
ETH Denver is in the rearview mirror
All the VC's got in a weekend of skiing right after
We can now focus on where the markets go from here
1/ Some jumbled thoughts on public mania and how to play its spillover into the private markets
2/ As an aside, can confirm that Snowbasin was absolutely firing this weekend
