Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Downloads of VPNs have soared by 1,300% in Russia as citizens try en masse to circumvent government blocks on popular apps like Telegram. As a Russian commentator warns, this is likely to lead to the government criminalising VPN use in the near future. ⬇️

2/ Yuri Baranchik writes about how Russians are adapting to a "digital concentration camp":

"According to media reports, VPN app downloads in Russia have increased 14-fold in one year (!). From March 2025 to March 2026, 35.7 million downloads were recorded on Google Play alone."

3/ "January-March 2026 were the peak download months: downloads reached 21.27 million in the first quarter. By the end of 2025, the active user base of the top 5 most popular VPN services in Russia had grown to 7.3 million.

4/ "Measures taken to restrict block circumvention services are complicating VPN use. However, experts note that user activity on platforms that block VPN traffic is simultaneously declining.

5/ "According to Apple Censorship, 116 VPN services were unavailable in the Russian App Store as of the end of April. In late March, it was reported that the store had removed over 20 VPN services at the request of Roskomnadzor [the state media regulator].

6/ "What can these figures tell us? Setting aside the usual disbelief 🤦‍♂️ regarding the intellectual capabilities of those who launched this digital jihad.

7/ "A 14-fold growth and tens of millions of installs aren't a fringe story of "techies," but rather the transition of VPNs into a mass consumer tool. VPNs are ceasing to be considered "hacker gadgets" and becoming a common household tool.

8/ "People are beginning to perceive blocking not as an act of state necessity, but as an inconvenience caused by someone's stupidity that needs to be circumvented.

9/ "35.7 million downloads versus 7.3 million active users speak of a large "bench of reserves"—there's plenty to choose from. People are trying things out, deleting them, and searching for viable options.

10/ "An innovative environment for finding workarounds is emerging. The information literacy of society is increasing—from schoolchildren to pensioners. And it's free. That's good.

11/ "The phrase about "user activity on platforms that block VPN traffic is declining" is key. Users don't adapt to VK Video, Ozon, Wildberries, or any other platform. Platforms lose users if they make access difficult.

12/ "Content loyalty is higher than platform loyalty—what a surprise. Who would have thought...

13/ "Our society has become completely information-driven, a long time ago. Blocking access to information would plunge the vast majority of the population into severe depression and apathy, against which they will protest loudly and decisively.

14/ "Removing an informational stimulant of higher nervous activity—that's something you have to figure out...

15/ "The result is a formalised game of whack-a-mole. And the holes are growing. The authorities are blocking services, putting pressure on stores, and deleting apps (as many as 116 VPNs). Against this backdrop, dozens of new apps and methods for circumventing bans are appearing.

16/ "As a result, it's clear how users feel about the authorities who started all this. Platforms, meanwhile, are forced to balance regulators' demands with audience retention. And this isn't inspiring loyalty either.

17/ "If Roskomnadzor and the Ministry of Digital Development continue to prod the social and digital bear, the prognosis is clear. VPNs will become the standard for an active audience (30-50 million people).

18/ "App deletions and protocol blocking will continue. However, the share of custom solutions, "grey" VPNs, self-hosted options, home proxies that can no longer be disabled, and so on will grow. Segmentation of the population will occur.

19/ "The passive and apathetic majority will live within a limited information field (with "whitelists"). The active minority, also the most inquisitive and innovative, will seek various methods to circumvent the bans, including leaving the digital concentration camp.

20/ "It's hard to say who needs this and why. But what's happening hardly looks like a tool for the country's development. Incidentally, the president hinted at something similar yesterday, recommending that lawmakers calm down with the bans.

21/ "Because the natural knee-jerk reaction of legislators to the obvious failure of the fight against block circumvention will be to criminalize VPN use. And the allocation of funds for traffic filtering will no longer be tens of billions [of rubles], but hundreds." /end

Source:
t.me/barantchik/365…