Mikhail Khodorkovsky Profile picture
Apr 29 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin is scared.

His "fortress" is cracking and half his decrees are now secret — so Russians can't see how badly the regime is failing.

Here's what he's hiding 👇 [1/11] Image
There have been no precedents to this blackout in modern history. In 2023, Putin set a record: 49.5% of presidential decrees were secret. Even last year, almost 45% of his orders remain hidden from public view. Half of the Russian government's actions are now officially "invisible."

[2/11]
What gets classified tells you what they fear. Examples:

➜ The "Cannibal Battalions": Secret decrees likely mask the mass pardoning of murderers and rapists sent to the front. The state calls them heroes but keeps the paperwork hidden because the public would revolt.

[3/11]
➜ Economic Decay: Statistics on oil, gas, and trade — the lifeblood of Putin's war machine — have been scrubbed.

➜ Data on military deaths and casualties is classified to keep the human cost of the invasion out of the public record.

[4/11]
By last year, over 300 datasets were concealed from the public eye. More than 30% of the national budget is now "closed" spending. We no longer know where the money is going, or how many people are actually dying at the front.

[5/11]
Not all of the secrecy hides the war's impact. Much of it protects the elites. Real estate records have been classified, officials' income declarations abolished, and photos of MPs in the State Duma banned outright.

[6/11]
Putin has created an echo chamber so secure that he is losing touch with reality. Generals report "victories" in places like Kupiansk to keep the boss happy, but the situation on the ground is the opposite. He is a leader making decisions based on obsolete or false information.

[7/11]
The peak of the absurdity: secret laws. There are now laws people are bound by but cannot know. Under Secret Decree 605, the FSB can shut down any communications that violate classified rules. You can be arrested for breaking a law you aren't allowed to read.

[8/11]
Most governments classify information to protect it from foreign rivals. Putin's classifications protect the regime from its own citizens. Their function is to cover for incompetence and systemic failure at home.

[9/11]
When a dictator feels the need to hide half of his decisions, it's obvious that even he knows nothing he is doing is going to improve people's lives. This curtain of secrecy is designed to conceal the fragility of the regime's position.

[10/11]
Follow for more on Russia's politics, the war, and what the regime is working hardest to hide.

And subscribe on Substack (it's free):

[11/11]khodorkovsky.substack.com

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More from @khodorkovsky_en

Apr 28
State-run pollster in Russia have published a noticeable drop in Putin's approval.

Last week, Russia's economy minister stood up and admitted the country's reserves are largely gone.

🧵Let's take a look at what it all could mean: [1/14]
The trigger appears to be the continued economic downturn. GDP is down 1.8%, with industry and construction also weakening.

Even more strikingly, the economy minister has admitted that a large share of Russia's reserves has already been used up. Putin has demanded answers.



[2/14]finance.yahoo.com/economy/articl…
On the surface, this looks like a standard economic story. But in Russia, this is a major departure from the norm.

The country has been through far worse without public acknowledgement from the top. So when criticism appears, it usually serves a political function.

[3/14]
Read 14 tweets
Apr 27
Imagine this: A major disaster hits your country. People are dying, cities are burning, the environment is ruined. You look to your national leader for a plan, but they've nowhere to be found.

Sounds unlikely? In Putin's Russia, it's an everyday reality. In 26 years in power, he has vanished every time the nation is in pain. [1/16]
Image
Right now, in Russia's Tuapse, it's literally raining oil. After drone strikes, black soot covers the city, animals are dying, and a 10,000 sq m slick is spreading in the Black Sea. And the president is radio silent.

[2/16]
Residents are choking on benzene levels three times the limit and desperately asking, "Where is Putin?" Well, while Tuapse faces an ecological disaster he is busy renaming his alma mater after Dzerzhinsky (the Cheka founder) and meeting the President of the Seychelles.

[3/16] Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 23
The West keeps making the same fundamental mistake about Russia.

I’ve spent a decade in the system, ten years in six different Russian prisons, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that switching the "Tsar" won't fix a thing.

Here is why the "Good Tsar" myth is a trap, and what actually needs to happen. 🧵 [1/12]
There is a prevailing hope in DC and Brussels that if we just replace the current man in the Kremlin with a "liberal" leader, everything will click into place.

I’m telling you: It won’t. [2/12]
I once conducted a small "social experiment."

I met with four high-ranking, qualified American politicians and asked them: "Imagine you wake up tomorrow as the President of Russia. It’s a massive, diverse territory controlled by a rigid center. To maintain power, the center must strip 60% of resources from the regions and then redistribute them.

How do you convince people to accept that? [3/12]
Read 12 tweets
Apr 15
Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU.

Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe.

Here is why Moscow is panicking. 🧵 [1/14] Image
Putin’s EU Veto: The End of Strategic Obstruction

For years, Orban turned Hungary into a pressure point inside the EU. Because of the bloc's need for unanimity, Budapest could, and often did, slow or block decisions on any issue, be it sanctions, funding, or military support. [2/14]
The Cost of Obstruction.

Orbán’s track record of blocking aid to Ukraine is staggering:
2022: Blocked an €18bn aid package.
2023: Stalled crucial payments through the European Peace Facility.
2024: Obstructed a €90bn long-term support plan for Kyiv. [3/14]
Read 14 tweets
Apr 9
It is nearly impossible for a European to comprehend the psychological reality inside Russia. It is not just "fake news." It is a total deconstruction of reality.

Let me try to immerse you in the world Russians live in [1/9]
First, understand the isolation. Around 90% of Russians have never left the country. Even fewer have ever stepped beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union.

For the vast majority, the "West" is not a place they have visited. It is a ghost story told by the state.  [2/9]
This is difficult to imagine in Europe. You take a 2-hour train ride and you are in another country. In Russia, the scale is different. When I was transported from Moscow to prison, the journey took 7 days. SEVEN. 7 days on a train in the same country. [3/9]
Read 9 tweets
Apr 8
The real Iran crisis is nearing a terrifying tipping point. We are one mistake away from a catastrophic energy and water collapse that will trigger a global humanitarian emergency.

Here is why the "informal limits" are about to break: 🧵 [1/15] Image
The Iran crisis is approaching a crossroads. Either it settles into a fragile political arrangement, or it escalates into a wider regional conflict. Either way, the consequences will reach far beyond the Middle East. [2/15]
For Washington, a prolonged war is politically difficult to sustain. Legal constraints, competing priorities and the pressure of the upcoming midterms all push toward outcomes that appear decisive without being open-ended. [3/15]
Read 15 tweets

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