1/ Tuapse is on fire again, and once again Russians are asking why their air defences are so inadequate. Prominent Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev blames the lack of any clearly defined responsibility for air defence.
2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development group. In a commentary on his Telegram channel, he highlights how disorganisation and unclear responsibilities are undermining Russian air defences.
3/ This is in marked contrast to Ukraine, where the Ukrainian Air Force is responsible for a highly organised, multi-layered, hybrid system which incorporates sophisticated detection systems with dispersed and mobile countermeasures. Russia has never been able to replicate this.
4/ Chadayev writes:
"Basically, our "Ushkuynik" was created from the very beginning with a focus on counter-drone solutions, not on attack and reconnaissance frontline drones."
5/ "However, while we've achieved some success in the latter area over the past two years, we haven't demonstrated any significant results in the former, which is even reflected in the name of our research and development centre.
6/ "The reason for this is simple: frontline drones have a clearly defined customer—the Russian Ministry of Defence. Counter-drone solutions, over all these years, have never found such a customer.
7/ "We thought the facility owners would be the ones to make those requests, but no, they're still sitting there waiting for someone to come and defend them.
8/ "In a sense, they can be understood: it's not just a question of equipment and training, but also a question of the authority that no one has given them for such self-defence.
9/ "Moreover, the specialised security structure responsible for covering rear facilities has still not been determined. Consequently, the solutions we have are simply unavailable to us, and we have no one to work with to bring them to a mass-produced level.
10/ "Currently, at Ushkuynik, we are studying the experience of mobile fire teams, both ours and the enemy's.
11/ "The enemy is a separate topic, but as for our country, there is currently no competence centre that would summarize this experience and develop methods for zone and facility defence.
12/ "There are no training grounds where simulated attacks can be regularly organised and various countermeasures can be tested. There is no inexpensive, mass-produced flying target on which to hone marksmen's skills, nor is there a contract for its development or production.
13/ "There is no analytical group that would collect information on past attacks and analyze their progress. There are many other “no’s,” but the main thing is that there is no responsible structure that would turn all these “no’s” into “yes.”
14/ "The "defend yourself" solution is bad, but honestly, it would be better. Why is it bad? Because we see what's happening where these mobile fire teams are actually created.
15/ "First, they simply don't know how to shoot; no one systematically trains them to fire at moving flying targets. Second, they huddle close to the objects they're defending (instead of moving to the defensive lines as planned),…
16/ …and suddenly discover that even after hitting an aircraft, it continues to fly a couple of kilometers back to where it was headed by inertia—and, yes, debris falls on the target.
17/ "Third, service members (both military and others) are terrified of the responsibility of a downed drone falling on something, someone else's, and they'll be the ones held responsible—and there are cases (I even have video proof) where they fire like crazy ("we tried"),…
18/ …just to make sure they don't miss their target.
I could go on, but I repeat, I see no point in fueling the treason. What I consider the most difficult thing for our system is, firstly, recognizing the problem (oddly enough).
19/ "Secondly, recognizing that it currently lacks an "owner" (military air defence in its current form simply cannot function as such organisationally) and appointing that "owner" by directive.
20/ "Thirdly, resolving the issue of authority and responsibility—this is a legal matter, not even a management one.
21/ "Fourthly, adopting at least some kind of plan for how all this will work—if it proves poor or insufficient, it can always be adjusted, but it's important that it exists.
22/ "The problem isn't that we're suffering losses, nor even that they're completely unnecessary. The problem is that we're losing organisational momentum, chronically lagging behind the enemy's response speed.
23/ "What's flying at us now isn't some kind of miracle weapon; it can and should be shot down. This isn't a question of a lack of technology, it's a question of management decisions." /end
1/ Vladimir Putin's reversion to 'February 2022 mode' is meeting with a stony response from Russian warbloggers. Many have refrained from commenting, but some are reacting with open and sharp criticism, calling him "completely divorced from reality". ⬇️
"The situation on the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is turning from difficult to catastrophic; neither Western aid nor forced mobilisation are helping them."
3/ "I call on the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers not to carry out the criminal orders of the Kyiv regime."
1/ With Russian logistics vehicles now regularly being blown up by Ukrainian drones far behind the front lines, Russian warbloggers are angrily demanding to know why the military leadership didn't anticipate this and put in place anti-drone protections. ⬇️
2/ As illustrated in this excellent post by @clement_molin, Ukraine is managing to extend its 'kill zone' into Russia and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, severely hindering Russian logistics across the region.
1/ While the Russian army has had some success in adapting to the conditions of the Ukraine war, this has often relied on bypassing the existing military bureaucracy. A Russian commentary highlights how a "self-defensive bureaucratic carcass" is hindering Russia's war effort. ⬇️
2/ The Russian war effort is heavily dependent on soldiers' and volunteers' personal funding and individual adaptation, as often seen in the 'Mad Max' style vehicles used on the battlefield. Soldiers have often complained of a lack of support and provision from the bureaucracy.
3/ 'Voice from Below' writes:
"Problems with UAVs, communications, reconnaissance, and mechanisation have been discussed since the mid-2010s."
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:
"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️
2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:
"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
3/ "A demographic alarm is sounding. The birth rate in Russian villages has hit rock bottom—a 35-year low. Rosstat recorded a fertility rate of 1.464. For reference, to avoid population decline, a fertility rate of at least 2 is needed.